Roasso Kumamoto v FC Gifu prediction · J3 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Roasso KumamotoDrawFC Gifu

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 04:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Roasso Kumamoto 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Roasso Kumamoto are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Roasso Kumamoto 45%, draw 26%, FC Gifu 29%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Roasso Kumamoto v FC GifuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Roasso Kumamoto win45%

Draw26%

FC Gifu win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 04:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueEgao Kenko Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Roasso Kumamoto

FC Gifu

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J3 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	FC Gifu	12	+12	22
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	+7	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · roasso kumamoto winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

45% The market35%

Us45%

~~Market~~35%

We make Roasso Kumamoto a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Roasso Kumamoto v FC Gifu~~1.31 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 18 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 22~~8 v 6

~~The market · Roasso Kumamoto win~~35% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Roasso Kumamoto win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Roasso Kumamoto win	45%	35%	+10
Draw	26%	27%	−1
FC Gifu win	29%	38%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	40%	52%	−12
Both teams to score	44%	57%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	65%	75%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	20%	31%	−11
Roasso Kumamoto or draw	71%	62%	+9
Roasso Kumamoto clean sheet	38%	–	–
FC Gifu clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 9.7 10.9 4.9 1 14.2 11.8 6.2 2.1 2 8.7 8.2 4.0 3 3.8 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Roasso Kumamoto down, FC Gifu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,784 J3 League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Roasso Kumamoto at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Gifu away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Roasso Kumamoto, 0.97 for FC Gifu. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ROA 2–0 FCG · FCG 0–1 ROA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 18 Sept

ROASSO KUMAMOTO

DWDLWW0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 3–0

FC GIFU

LWLWWW0–1 · 4–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	13	+11	29
2	Ehime FC	12	+13	26
3	Osaka	13	+10	23
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	+8	23
5	Nara Club	13	+2	23
6	FC Gifu	12	+12	22
7	Sagamihara	13	+7	22
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	+7	20
9	FC Ryukyu	13	+1	20
10	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
11	Kanazawa	12	0	14
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	−1	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
14	Tochigi SC	13	−4	14
15	Gainare Tottori	12	−10	14
16	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	13	−10	13
18	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	−10	8
20	Kochi United	12	−23	5