Roasso Kumamoto v Ehime FC prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 07:31

Roasso Kumamoto 0–2 Ehime FC EHIME FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ehime FC win~~38%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.586

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.577

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ehime FC win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ehime FC was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 35–29–37
1′KICK-OFF Roasso Kumamoto v Ehime FC
2′Much as we predicted: Ehime FC was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 34–29–37
9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Roasso Kumamoto
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Roasso Kumamoto 0–1 Ehime FC
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Roasso Kumamoto 0–1 Ehime FC
22′18′ and it is 0–1: Ehime FC have scored. 0–1 · 11–21–68
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Ehime FC win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Ehime FC win: 38% at kick-off, 37% now
23′18′ and it is 0–1: Ehime FC have scored. 0–1 · 11–21–68
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Ehime FC win: 38% at kick-off, 37% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Ehime FC win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
24′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Ehime FC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ehime FC win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
45′SECOND HALF Roasso Kumamoto 0–1 Ehime FC
46′HALF-TIME Roasso Kumamoto 0–1 Ehime FC
58′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ehime FC · On: Y. Yamashita · Off: Y. Takemoto
58′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ehime FC · On: Y. Fujimoto · Off: K. Miyamoto
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Roasso Kumamoto · On: O. Ishihara · Off: Y. Omoto
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ehime FC · On: R. Ishio · Off: K. Hosoya
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Roasso Kumamoto · On: S. Nagai · Off: K. Kobayashi
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Roasso Kumamoto · On: Y. Katori · Off: K. Fujii
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Roasso Kumamoto · On: S. Mishima · Off: Bae Jeong-Min
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ehime FC · On: H. Fukushima · Off: T. Shibata
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Ehime FC · On: A. Kozakai · Off: S. Kamimura
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Roasso Kumamoto 0–2 Ehime FC · T. Shibata
95′⚽ GOAL · 96' Roasso Kumamoto 0–2 Ehime FC
FTFULL TIME Roasso Kumamoto 0–2 Ehime FC
FTRoasso Kumamoto 0–2 Ehime FC · Ehime FC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Roasso Kumamoto win35%

Draw27%

Ehime FC win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 05:00

VenueEgao Kenko Stadium

Line-ups

Roasso Kumamoto

Ehime FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Roasso Kumamoto

Ehime FC

9Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ehime FC	9	+12	20
8	Roasso Kumamoto	9	+3	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Roasso Kumamoto

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Sato

39 R. Ishida

4 R. Yakushida

24 T. Ri

5 K. Kobayashi

41 Y. Omoto

29 N. Mishina

25 K. Nasu

37 H. Ozawa

9 Bae Jeong-Min

7 K. Fujii

Coach · Tomohiro Katanosaka

Substitutes

23 · Y. Sato

13 · A. Iihoshi

15 · S. Mishima

3 · R. Onishi

17 · S. Nagai

11 · R. Watanabe

22 · E. Matsuda

14 · O. Ishihara

10 · Y. Katori

Ehime FC

Formation not confirmed

36 S. Tsuji

16 K. Hosoya

50 K. Sugiyama

8 S. Kamimura

5 T. Kuroishi

49 R. Abe

22 Y. Takemoto

38 S. Hino

23 K. Miyamoto

18 T. Shibata

17 S. Tamura

Coach · Takeshi Oki

Substitutes

45 · K. Makiguchi

37 · R. Ishio

3 · H. Fukushima

99 · R. Kabayama

13 · Y. Yamashita

28 · A. Kozakai

9 · Y. Fujimoto

44 · M. Hayashi

48 · T. Yukutomo

Our number · ehime fc winPublished 11 Oct 05:01

38% The market38%

Us38%

~~Market~~38%

We make Ehime FC a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ehime fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Roasso Kumamoto win	35%	34%	+1
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Ehime FC win	38%	38%	0
Over 2.5 goals	40%	50%	−10
Both teams to score	45%	56%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	66%	73%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	20%	30%	−10
Roasso Kumamoto or draw	62%	62%	0
Roasso Kumamoto clean sheet	32%	–	–
Ehime FC clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.9 12.5 6.9 2.8 1 12.0 12.2 7.5 3.0 2 6.4 7.2 4.2 3 2.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Roasso Kumamoto down, Ehime FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,760 J3 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Roasso Kumamoto at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ehime FC away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Roasso Kumamoto, 1.17 for Ehime FC. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in J3 League

ROASSO KUMAMOTO

WDWDWD2–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

EHIME FC

WWLWDW1–0 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	9	+9	23
2	Ehime FC	9	+12	20
3	Nara Club	10	+5	20
4	Sagamihara	10	+6	18
5	Osaka	10	+9	17
6	Renofa Yamaguchi	9	+6	17
7	Kanazawa	10	+3	14
8	Roasso Kumamoto	9	+3	14
9	Biwako Shiga	10	0	14
10	Parceiro Nagano	10	0	14
11	FC Gifu	9	+9	13
12	Gainare Tottori	9	−6	13
13	FC Ryukyu	10	−3	11
14	Tochigi SC	9	−3	10
15	Kitakyushu	10	−6	10
16	Thespakusatsu Gunma	10	−9	9
17	Matsumoto Yamaga	9	−3	8
18	Fukushima United	10	−5	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5
20	Kochi United	10	−19	5