Renofa Yamaguchi v Kochi United prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 08:31

Renofa Yamaguchi 2–0 Kochi United RENOFA YAMAGUCHI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Renofa Yamaguchi win~~63%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.207

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.228

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Renofa Yamaguchi win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Renofa Yamaguchi 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–21–16
1′KICK-OFF Renofa Yamaguchi v Kochi United
15′Renofa Yamaguchi score on 14′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–4
15′We said Renofa Yamaguchi at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Renofa Yamaguchi 1–0 Kochi United
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Renofa Yamaguchi win: 63% at kick-off, 84% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 84–13–4
45′HALF-TIME Renofa Yamaguchi 1–0 Kochi United
46′We said Renofa Yamaguchi at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–3
46′SECOND HALF Renofa Yamaguchi 1–0 Kochi United
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: Y. Wakasa · Off: K. Noyori
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kochi United · On: K. Sakagishi · Off: D. Matsumoto
55′Renofa Yamaguchi find the net on 55′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
55′We said Renofa Yamaguchi at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Renofa Yamaguchi 2–0 Kochi United
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Renofa Yamaguchi win: 63% at kick-off, 98% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: S. Watanabe · Off: R. Gunji
59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: N. Nomura · Off: S. Yamamoto
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Kochi United
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Kochi United · On: T. Tanaka · Off: Y. Shimoda
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Kochi United · On: A. Kawata · Off: R. Sugiyama
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Renofa Yamaguchi
77′We said Renofa Yamaguchi at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Kochi United · On: H. Sakamoto · Off: K. Sakagishi
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: N. Misawa · Off: K. Nakashima
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kochi United · On: A. Kanehara · Off: H. Cho
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: J. Suzuki · Off: T. Itakura
FTFULL TIME Renofa Yamaguchi 2–0 Kochi United
FTRenofa Yamaguchi 2–0 Kochi United · Renofa Yamaguchi win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Renofa Yamaguchi are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Renofa Yamaguchi 63%, draw 21%, Kochi United 16%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Renofa Yamaguchi v Kochi UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Renofa Yamaguchi win63%

Draw21%

Kochi United win16%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueIshin Me-Life Stadium

Line-ups

Renofa Yamaguchi

Kochi United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Renofa Yamaguchi

Kochi United

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 10 Oct · J3 League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	10	+7	20
20	Kochi United	10	−19	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Renofa Yamaguchi

Formation not confirmed

35 K. Uchiyama

15 T. Itakura

5 K. Yoshioka

33 S. Kikuchi

17 K. Tanabe

40 H. Naruoka

8 K. Noyori

2 R. Ozawa

19 S. Yamamoto

4 K. Nakashima

70 R. Gunji

Coach · Michiharu Otagiri

Substitutes

41 · M. Iida

77 · R. Yamamoto

18 · M. Kamekawa

43 · J. Suzuki

88 · N. Nomura

6 · Y. Wakasa

7 · N. Misawa

13 · S. Watanabe

22 · S. Kubo

Kochi United

Formation not confirmed

17 K. Inose

23 D. Matsumoto

4 D. Kobayashi

22 R. Fujimori

33 H. Cho

8 Y. Takano

14 G. Sekino

16 S. Kozuki

20 R. Sugiyama

44 Y. Shimoda

28 A. Nanamure

Coach · Takahiro Shimotaira

Substitutes

1 · R. Ono

15 · H. Sakamoto

76 · Y. Mikado

73 · T. Tanaka

6 · K. Sakagishi

26 · K. Asano

13 · A. Kawata

19 · I. Origbaajo

7 · A. Kanehara

Our number · renofa yamaguchi winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

63% The market61%

Us63%

~~Market~~61%

We make Renofa Yamaguchi a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Renofa Yamaguchi v Kochi United~~1.86 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 20 v 5~~4 v 20

~~The market · Renofa Yamaguchi win~~61% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Renofa Yamaguchi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Renofa Yamaguchi win	63%	61%	+2
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Kochi United win	16%	16%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	54%	−5
Both teams to score	45%	51%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	73%	76%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	33%	−5
Renofa Yamaguchi or draw	84%	84%	0
Renofa Yamaguchi clean sheet	45%	–	–
Kochi United clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 6.6 6.3 2.3 1 13.8 9.6 4.1 2 12.0 9.4 3.8 3 7.5 5.8 2.3 4 3.5 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Renofa Yamaguchi down, Kochi United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,770 J3 League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.7% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Renofa Yamaguchi at home: 1.25 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 4). Kochi United away: 0.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Renofa Yamaguchi, 0.80 for Kochi United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KOC 2–2 REN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept

RENOFA YAMAGUCHI

WWWDWW3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–0

KOCHI UNITED

LDLLLL0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	11	+10	26
2	Ehime FC	11	+12	23
3	Nara Club	11	+6	23
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	10	+7	20
5	FC Gifu	11	+11	19
6	Sagamihara	10	+6	18
7	Osaka	11	+7	17
8	Kanazawa	11	+2	14
9	Roasso Kumamoto	10	+1	14
10	Biwako Shiga	10	0	14
11	Parceiro Nagano	10	0	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	−2	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	−7	14
14	Kitakyushu	11	−4	13
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	10	−2	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	−5	10
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	−9	10
18	Fukushima United	11	−6	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5
20	Kochi United	10	−19	5