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Parceiro Nagano v Matsumoto Yamaga

Parceiro Nagano
2–1Full time
Matsumoto Yamaga

J3 League · SUN 18 OCT · Nagano U Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 09:32
Parceiro Nagano 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga MATSUMOTO YAMAGA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Matsumoto Yamaga win41%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.672
The market’s Brier score0.740

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Matsumoto Yamaga win at 41%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Parceiro Nagano v Matsumoto Yamaga
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Matsumoto Yamaga 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 33–26–40
  4. 2′Parceiro Nagano find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–23–18
  5. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Parceiro Nagano 1–0 Matsumoto Yamaga
  6. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Matsumoto Yamaga win: 41% at kick-off, 18% now
  7. 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Parceiro Nagano win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Matsumoto Yamaga win 18%)
  8. 3′We said Matsumoto Yamaga at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 60–23–17
  9. 19′We said Matsumoto Yamaga at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
  10. 25′A goal for Matsumoto Yamaga on 25′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–33–37
  11. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Parceiro Nagano 1–1 Matsumoto Yamaga
  12. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Matsumoto Yamaga win: 41% at kick-off, 37% now
  13. 30′Parceiro Nagano score on 30′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 65–23–12
  14. 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 65–23–12
  15. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Parceiro Nagano 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga
  16. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Matsumoto Yamaga win: 41% at kick-off, 12% now
  17. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Matsumoto Yamaga win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
  18. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Parceiro Nagano
  19. 42′We said Matsumoto Yamaga at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 68–23–9
  20. 45′HALF-TIME Parceiro Nagano 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga
  21. 46′SECOND HALF Parceiro Nagano 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga
  22. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: T. Miyabe · Off: K. Kaneko
  23. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: Y. Taguchi · Off: T. Shirai
  24. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Parceiro Nagano · On: K. Yoshida · Off: Y. Hasegawa
  25. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: K. Saso · Off: K. Kitazume
  26. 63′We said Matsumoto Yamaga at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
  27. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Matsumoto Yamaga
  28. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Parceiro Nagano · On: K. Higuchi · Off: K. Tomita
  29. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Parceiro Nagano · On: K. Tanaka · Off: T. Kondo
  30. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Parceiro Nagano
  31. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Matsumoto Yamaga win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
  32. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Parceiro Nagano
  33. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: K. Fujieda · Off: S. Tanaka
  34. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Parceiro Nagano · On: H. Shoji · Off: S. Yoshizawa
  35. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Parceiro Nagano · On: K. Kutsuna · Off: R. Yamanaka
  36. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: A. Inoue · Off: H. Murakami
  37. FTFULL TIME Parceiro Nagano 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga
  38. FTParceiro Nagano 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga · Matsumoto Yamaga win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Matsumoto Yamaga are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Parceiro Nagano 34%, draw 26%, Matsumoto Yamaga 41%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Parceiro Nagano v Matsumoto YamagaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Parceiro Nagano win34%
Draw26%
Matsumoto Yamaga win41%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 07:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueNagano U Stadium

Line-ups

Parceiro Nagano

Matsumoto Yamaga

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Parceiro Nagano

Matsumoto Yamaga

8Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 14 Oct · J-League Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Parceiro Nagano10014
15Matsumoto Yamaga10−211

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Parceiro Nagano

Formation not confirmed

21 K. Nakano

24 Z. Watanabe

7 Y. Ono

13 Y. Tsukegi

3 K. Tomita

10 R. Yamanaka

77 D. Morita

40 Y. Hasegawa

8 T. Kondo

28 K. Fujikawa

18 S. Yoshizawa

Coach · Shinji Kobayashi

Substitutes

1 · K. Tajiri

16 · K. Ishii

26 · S. Nakata

25 · K. Tanaka

14 · K. Kutsuna

15 · K. Higuchi

22 · K. Yoshida

11 · K. Shin

19 · H. Shoji

Matsumoto Yamaga

Formation not confirmed

21 M. Tomizawa

5 T. Shirai

4 K. Minoda

6 H. Noda

43 K. Kaneko

30 K. Kitazume

36 G. Matsumura

13 H. Murakami

40 D. Higuchi

18 R. Sato

19 S. Tanaka

Coach · Nobuhiro Ishizaki

Substitutes

23 · R. Koma

16 · T. Miyabe

11 · S. Kaneko

22 · K. Saso

48 · K. Kawakami

17 · Y. Taguchi

8 · R. Sawazaki

39 · A. Inoue

38 · K. Fujieda

Our number · matsumoto yamaga winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
41% The market41%
Us41%
Market41%

We make Matsumoto Yamaga a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Parceiro Nagano v Matsumoto Yamaga1.13 – 1.27
Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 14 v 1111 v 15
The market · Matsumoto Yamaga win41% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 06:39
Our probability · Matsumoto Yamaga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Parceiro Nagano win34%30%+4
Draw26%29%−3
Matsumoto Yamaga win41%41%0
Over 2.5 goals43%46%−3
Both teams to score47%52%−5
Over 1.5 goals68%70%−2
Over 3.5 goals22%27%−5
Parceiro Nagano or draw59%59%0
Parceiro Nagano clean sheet28%––
Matsumoto Yamaga clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.4%
0123450 8.5 12.4 7.3 3.2 1 11.1 12.0 8.1 3.5 2 5.8 7.2 4.5 3 2.2 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Parceiro Nagano down, Matsumoto Yamaga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.20
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsMAT 0–1 PAR · PAR 0–5 MAT · PAR 1–0 MAT · MAT 2–2 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept

PARCEIRO NAGANO

DDWLLW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 3–1

MATSUMOTO YAMAGA

DLDWLW0–0 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kagoshima United11+1026
2Ehime FC11+1223
3Nara Club11+623
4Renofa Yamaguchi10+720
5FC Gifu11+1119
6Sagamihara10+618
7Osaka11+717
8Kanazawa11+214
9Roasso Kumamoto10+114
10Biwako Shiga10014
11Parceiro Nagano10014
12FC Ryukyu11−214
13Gainare Tottori11−714
14Kitakyushu11−413
15Matsumoto Yamaga10−211
16Tochigi SC11−510
17Thespakusatsu Gunma11−910
18Fukushima United11−68
19Kamatamare Sanuki10−85
20Kochi United10−195

The competition's standings before kick-off.