

Parceiro Nagano v Matsumoto Yamaga
Parceiro Nagano
Matsumoto YamagaJ3 League · SUN 18 OCT · Nagano U Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Matsumoto Yamaga win at 41%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Parceiro Nagano v Matsumoto Yamaga
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Matsumoto Yamaga 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 33–26–40
- 2′Parceiro Nagano find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–23–18
- 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Parceiro Nagano 1–0 Matsumoto Yamaga
- 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Matsumoto Yamaga win: 41% at kick-off, 18% now
- 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Parceiro Nagano win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Matsumoto Yamaga win 18%)
- 3′We said Matsumoto Yamaga at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 60–23–17
- 19′We said Matsumoto Yamaga at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
- 25′A goal for Matsumoto Yamaga on 25′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–33–37
- 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Parceiro Nagano 1–1 Matsumoto Yamaga
- 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Matsumoto Yamaga win: 41% at kick-off, 37% now
- 30′Parceiro Nagano score on 30′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 65–23–12
- 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 65–23–12
- 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Parceiro Nagano 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga
- 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Matsumoto Yamaga win: 41% at kick-off, 12% now
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Matsumoto Yamaga win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
- 37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Parceiro Nagano
- 42′We said Matsumoto Yamaga at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 68–23–9
- 45′HALF-TIME Parceiro Nagano 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga
- 46′SECOND HALF Parceiro Nagano 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: T. Miyabe · Off: K. Kaneko
- 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: Y. Taguchi · Off: T. Shirai
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Parceiro Nagano · On: K. Yoshida · Off: Y. Hasegawa
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: K. Saso · Off: K. Kitazume
- 63′We said Matsumoto Yamaga at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
- 67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Matsumoto Yamaga
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Parceiro Nagano · On: K. Higuchi · Off: K. Tomita
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Parceiro Nagano · On: K. Tanaka · Off: T. Kondo
- 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Parceiro Nagano
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Matsumoto Yamaga win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
- 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Parceiro Nagano
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: K. Fujieda · Off: S. Tanaka
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Parceiro Nagano · On: H. Shoji · Off: S. Yoshizawa
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Parceiro Nagano · On: K. Kutsuna · Off: R. Yamanaka
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: A. Inoue · Off: H. Murakami
- FTFULL TIME Parceiro Nagano 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga
- FTParceiro Nagano 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga · Matsumoto Yamaga win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Matsumoto Yamaga are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Parceiro Nagano 34%, draw 26%, Matsumoto Yamaga 41%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Parceiro Nagano win34%
Matsumoto Yamaga win41%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 07:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueNagano U Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Parceiro NaganoMIN
Matsumoto YamagaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Parceiro Nagano
Matsumoto Yamaga
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Parceiro Nagano
Matsumoto Yamaga
Last match: 10 Oct · J3 League
Last match: 14 Oct · J-League Cup
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Parceiro Nagano
Formation not confirmed
21 K. Nakano
24 Z. Watanabe
7 Y. Ono
13 Y. Tsukegi
3 K. Tomita
10 R. Yamanaka
77 D. Morita
40 Y. Hasegawa
8 T. Kondo
28 K. Fujikawa
18 S. Yoshizawa
Coach · Shinji Kobayashi
Substitutes
1 · K. Tajiri
16 · K. Ishii
26 · S. Nakata
25 · K. Tanaka
14 · K. Kutsuna
15 · K. Higuchi
22 · K. Yoshida
11 · K. Shin
19 · H. Shoji
Matsumoto Yamaga
Formation not confirmed
21 M. Tomizawa
5 T. Shirai
4 K. Minoda
6 H. Noda
43 K. Kaneko
30 K. Kitazume
36 G. Matsumura
13 H. Murakami
40 D. Higuchi
18 R. Sato
19 S. Tanaka
Coach · Nobuhiro Ishizaki
Substitutes
23 · R. Koma
16 · T. Miyabe
11 · S. Kaneko
22 · K. Saso
48 · K. Kawakami
17 · Y. Taguchi
8 · R. Sawazaki
39 · A. Inoue
38 · K. Fujieda
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Parceiro Nagano
Formation not confirmed
21 K. Nakano
24 Z. Watanabe
7 Y. Ono
13 Y. Tsukegi
3 K. Tomita
10 R. Yamanaka
77 D. Morita
40 Y. Hasegawa
8 T. Kondo
28 K. Fujikawa
18 S. Yoshizawa
Coach · Shinji Kobayashi
Substitutes
1 · K. Tajiri
16 · K. Ishii
26 · S. Nakata
25 · K. Tanaka
14 · K. Kutsuna
15 · K. Higuchi
22 · K. Yoshida
11 · K. Shin
19 · H. Shoji
Matsumoto Yamaga
Formation not confirmed
21 M. Tomizawa
5 T. Shirai
4 K. Minoda
6 H. Noda
43 K. Kaneko
30 K. Kitazume
36 G. Matsumura
13 H. Murakami
40 D. Higuchi
18 R. Sato
19 S. Tanaka
Coach · Nobuhiro Ishizaki
Substitutes
23 · R. Koma
16 · T. Miyabe
11 · S. Kaneko
22 · K. Saso
48 · K. Kawakami
17 · Y. Taguchi
8 · R. Sawazaki
39 · A. Inoue
38 · K. Fujieda
We make Matsumoto Yamaga a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parceiro Nagano win | 34% | 30% | +4 |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | −3 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga win | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 27% | −5 |
| Parceiro Nagano or draw | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Parceiro Nagano clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
| Matsumoto Yamaga clean sheet | 33% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept
PARCEIRO NAGANO
MATSUMOTO YAMAGA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 11 | +10 | 26 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 11 | +12 | 23 |
| 3 | Nara Club | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 5 | FC Gifu | 11 | +11 | 19 |
| 6 | Sagamihara | 10 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 | Osaka | 11 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 | Kanazawa | 11 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Roasso Kumamoto | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Biwako Shiga | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | FC Ryukyu | 11 | −2 | 14 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 11 | −7 | 14 |
| 14 | Kitakyushu | 11 | −4 | 13 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 10 | −2 | 11 |
| 16 | Tochigi SC | 11 | −5 | 10 |
| 17 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 11 | −9 | 10 |
| 18 | Fukushima United | 11 | −6 | 8 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | −8 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 10 | −19 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Kagoshima United
Ehime FC
Nara Club
Renofa Yamaguchi
FC Gifu
Sagamihara
Osaka
Kanazawa
Roasso Kumamoto
Biwako Shiga
FC Ryukyu
Gainare Tottori
Kitakyushu
Tochigi SC
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Fukushima United
Kamatamare Sanuki
Kochi United