Parceiro Nagano v FC Ryukyu prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 07:30

Parceiro Nagano 0–1 FC Ryukyu PARCEIRO NAGANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Parceiro Nagano win~~40%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.639

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.605

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Parceiro Nagano win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Parceiro Nagano 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
1′KICK-OFF Parceiro Nagano v FC Ryukyu
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Parceiro Nagano win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Parceiro Nagano 0–0 FC Ryukyu
46′SECOND HALF Parceiro Nagano 0–0 FC Ryukyu
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Parceiro Nagano win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
54′We said Parceiro Nagano at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–46–26
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 28–47–25
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Parceiro Nagano · On: Z. Watanabe · Off: S. Nakata
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Parceiro Nagano · On: K. Fujikawa · Off: K. Shin
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Ryukyu · On: H. Asakawa · Off: T. Teruuchi
63′We said Parceiro Nagano at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Ryukyu · On: F. Takayanagi · Off: S. Iwamoto
65′A goal for Parceiro Nagano on 65′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–18–3
65′We said Parceiro Nagano at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–18–3
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Parceiro Nagano 1–0 FC Ryukyu
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Parceiro Nagano win: 40% at kick-off, 79% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Parceiro Nagano win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 56%)
66′GOAL DISALLOWED · 66' Parceiro Nagano
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Parceiro Nagano win: 40% at kick-off, 23% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Parceiro Nagano win 79%)
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' FC Ryukyu
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Parceiro Nagano win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Ryukyu · On: H. Yoshida · Off: J. Suzuki
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Parceiro Nagano · On: R. Yamanaka · Off: K. Kutsuna
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Parceiro Nagano · On: D. Morita · Off: K. Nojima
78′We said Parceiro Nagano at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Parceiro Nagano win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
83′We said Parceiro Nagano at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
84′A goal for FC Ryukyu on 84′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–7–92
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Parceiro Nagano 0–1 FC Ryukyu
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Parceiro Nagano win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' FC Ryukyu win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 85%)
85′We said Parceiro Nagano at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–7–93
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Parceiro Nagano · On: K. Ando · Off: K. Higuchi
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Ryukyu · On: Y. Koki · Off: T. Ishiura
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Ryukyu · On: K. Ihori · Off: K. Sota
FTFULL TIME Parceiro Nagano 0–1 FC Ryukyu
FTParceiro Nagano 0–1 FC Ryukyu · Parceiro Nagano win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Parceiro Nagano are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Parceiro Nagano 40%, draw 25%, FC Ryukyu 35%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Parceiro Nagano v FC RyukyuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Parceiro Nagano win40%

Draw25%

FC Ryukyu win35%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueNagano U Stadium

Line-ups

Parceiro Nagano

FC Ryukyu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Parceiro Nagano

FC Ryukyu

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 17 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Parceiro Nagano	11	+1	17
12	FC Ryukyu	11	−2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Parceiro Nagano

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Tajiri

26 S. Nakata

16 K. Ishii

13 Y. Tsukegi

25 K. Tanaka

30 K. Nojima

22 K. Yoshida

15 K. Higuchi

14 K. Kutsuna

11 K. Shin

19 H. Shoji

Coach · Shinji Kobayashi

Substitutes

21 · K. Nakano

7 · Y. Ono

3 · K. Tomita

24 · Z. Watanabe

28 · K. Fujikawa

39 · K. Ando

10 · R. Yamanaka

77 · D. Morita

9 · S. Osaki

FC Ryukyu

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Sato

14 J. Suzuki

27 Y. Funabashi

8 H. Horiuchi

24 N. Kawaguchi

46 R. Ikeda

13 S. Iwamoto

17 Y. Kato

23 K. Sota

11 T. Ishiura

19 T. Teruuchi

Coach · –

Substitutes

33 · R. Miyamoto

35 · K. Chiba

3 · H. Yoshida

32 · F. Takayanagi

16 · K. Ihori

7 · S. Motegi

10 · Y. Tomidokoro

55 · Y. Koki

9 · H. Asakawa

Our number · parceiro nagano winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 21 Oct 02:08 · locked at kick-off

40% The market36%

Us40%

~~Market~~36%

We make Parceiro Nagano a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Parceiro Nagano v FC Ryukyu~~1.32 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 14~~9 v 12

~~The market · Parceiro Nagano win~~36% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Parceiro Nagano win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Parceiro Nagano win	40%	36%	+4
Draw	25%	28%	−3
FC Ryukyu win	35%	37%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	53%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	58%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
Parceiro Nagano or draw	65%	63%	+2
Parceiro Nagano clean sheet	30%	–	–
FC Ryukyu clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.3 10.4 5.9 2.4 1 11.2 11.7 7.6 3.2 2 6.8 8.2 5.0 2.1 3 3.0 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Parceiro Nagano down, FC Ryukyu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,774 J3 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Parceiro Nagano at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Ryukyu away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Parceiro Nagano, 1.23 for FC Ryukyu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FCR 2–0 PAR · PAR 1–1 FCR · PAR 1–1 FCR · FCR 4–3 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 13 Sept

PARCEIRO NAGANO

DWLLWW1–1 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–1

FC RYUKYU

WLDLLW1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	11	+10	26
2	Ehime FC	11	+12	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	+9	23
4	Nara Club	11	+6	23
5	Sagamihara	11	+8	21
6	FC Gifu	11	+11	19
7	Osaka	11	+7	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	+4	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	11	+1	17
10	Kanazawa	11	+2	14
11	Biwako Shiga	11	−2	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	−2	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	−7	14
14	Kitakyushu	11	−4	13
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	11	−3	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	−5	10
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	−9	10
18	Fukushima United	11	−6	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	−11	5
20	Kochi United	11	−21	5