Osaka v Nara Club prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30

Osaka 2–0 Nara Club OSAKA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Osaka win~~46%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.442

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.452

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Osaka win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Osaka was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–29
1′KICK-OFF Osaka v Nara Club
16′We published Osaka at 46%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Osaka 1–0 Nara Club
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Osaka win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
18′Osaka score on 17′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
25′We published Osaka at 46%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Osaka 2–0 Nara Club
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Osaka win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
26′Osaka find the net on 26′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
38′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Nara Club · On: T. Ishii · Off: K. Takahata
45′SECOND HALF Osaka 2–0 Nara Club
47′We published Osaka at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
47′HALF-TIME Osaka 2–0 Nara Club
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Osaka win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
58′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–0
59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Nara Club · On: S. Mochizuki · Off: Y. Togashi
59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Nara Club · On: R. Sato · Off: R. Tamura
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Osaka · On: T. Toya · Off: S. Morimura
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Osaka
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Nara Club · On: S. Masuda · Off: R. Ando
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Nara Club · On: H. Morimoto · Off: S. Kawanishi
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Osaka · On: T. Kitsui · Off: K. Fukui
81′We published Osaka at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Osaka · On: R. Sugawara · Off: T. Shimada
89′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Osaka · On: K. Sakamoto · Off: S. Tachino
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Osaka · On: R. Nose · Off: R. Kubo
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Nara Club
94′Full time, 2–0. We called Osaka at 46% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Osaka 2–0 Nara Club
FTOsaka 2–0 Nara Club · Osaka win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Osaka are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Osaka 46%, draw 25%, Nara Club 29%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Osaka v Nara ClubBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Osaka win46%

Draw25%

Nara Club win29%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueHanazono Rugby Stadium

Line-ups

Osaka

Nara Club

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Osaka

Nara Club

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Nara Club	11	+6	23
7	Osaka	11	+7	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Osaka

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Sugawara

13 K. Mima

5 Y. Minakuchi

25 R. Kuwako

6 S. Tachino

14 S. Sumida

11 G. Yoshida

10 R. Kubo

15 K. Fukui

17 S. Morimura

9 T. Shimada

Coach · Mitsunori Yabuta

Substitutes

88 · R. Umeda

23 · T. Akiyama

2 · K. Sakamoto

41 · R. Nose

32 · H. Toriyama

21 · H. Kimura

7 · T. Kitsui

28 · T. Toya

29 · R. Sugawara

Nara Club

Formation not confirmed

96 M. Vito

2 K. Takahata

22 K. Ikoma

16 Y. Okuda

8 A. Yoshida

48 S. Kawanishi

10 R. Morita

7 R. Tamura

9 Y. Togashi

54 S. Kawasaki

13 R. Ando

Coach · Masashi Oguro

Substitutes

1 · T. Miyazawa

36 · T. Ishii

27 · M. Nakayama

33 · H. Sato

30 · S. Masuda

11 · R. Sato

29 · S. Ichimura

14 · S. Mochizuki

99 · H. Morimoto

Our number · osaka winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

46% The market45%

Us46%

~~Market~~45%

We make Osaka a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Osaka v Nara Club~~1.42 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 17 v 23~~7 v 4

~~The market · Osaka win~~45% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Osaka win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Osaka win	46%	45%	+1
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Nara Club win	29%	29%	0
Over 2.5 goals	45%	57%	−12
Both teams to score	48%	60%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	70%	79%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	24%	37%	−13
Osaka or draw	71%	71%	0
Osaka clean sheet	35%	–	–
Nara Club clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 7.8 9.7 4.8 1 12.6 11.6 6.6 2.4 2 8.3 8.7 4.7 3 4.0 4.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Osaka down, Nara Club across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,774 J3 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Osaka at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Nara Club away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Osaka, 1.07 for Nara Club. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NAR 1–4 OSA · NAR 1–3 OSA · OSA 2–0 NAR · NAR 1–1 OSA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 12 Sept

OSAKA

WWWLDL2–1 · 4–1 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

NARA CLUB

WWWWWW2–1 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	11	+10	26
2	Ehime FC	11	+12	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	+9	23
4	Nara Club	11	+6	23
5	Sagamihara	11	+8	21
6	FC Gifu	11	+11	19
7	Osaka	11	+7	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	+4	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
10	FC Ryukyu	12	−1	17
11	Kanazawa	11	+2	14
12	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	−7	14
14	Tochigi SC	12	−4	13
15	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	11	−3	11
17	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	−9	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	−11	5
20	Kochi United	11	−21	5