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Osaka v Kanazawa

Osaka

1–1Full time

Kanazawa

J3 League · FRI 9 OCT · Hanazono Rugby Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 13:31

Osaka 1–1 Kanazawa OSAKA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Osaka win~~47%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.859

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.813

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Osaka win47%

Draw25%

Kanazawa win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 11:00

Venue · Hanazono Rugby Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Osaka

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Sugawara

2 K. Sakamoto

5 Y. Minakuchi

25 R. Kuwako

6 S. Tachino

14 S. Sumida

28 T. Toya

95 K. Isa

11 G. Yoshida

17 S. Morimura

9 T. Shimada

Coach · Mitsunori Yabuta

Substitutes

30 · J. Han

52 · M. Kojima

35 · K. Shin

15 · K. Fukui

21 · H. Kimura

7 · T. Kitsui

10 · R. Kubo

99 · Vinicius Souza

29 · R. Sugawara

Kanazawa

Formation not confirmed

31 I. Ueda

39 H. Shoji

2 N. Yamamoto

20 H. Nagakura

29 K. Miyazaki

15 Y. Nishiya

26 J. Murata

14 Y. Shinomiya

41 S. Shimada

7 R. Tosa

9 K. Buwanika

Coach · Masateru Tsujita

Substitutes

50 · D. Goto

19 · S. Terasaka

3 · H. Hatao

23 · K. Sakakibara

8 · K. Oyama

28 · H. Suzuki

10 · Patric

27 · H. Otani

13 · K. Shirawachi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Osaka

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Sugawara

2 K. Sakamoto

5 Y. Minakuchi

25 R. Kuwako

6 S. Tachino

14 S. Sumida

28 T. Toya

95 K. Isa

11 G. Yoshida

17 S. Morimura

9 T. Shimada

Coach · Mitsunori Yabuta

Substitutes

30 · J. Han

52 · M. Kojima

35 · K. Shin

15 · K. Fukui

21 · H. Kimura

7 · T. Kitsui

10 · R. Kubo

99 · Vinicius Souza

29 · R. Sugawara

Kanazawa

Formation not confirmed

31 I. Ueda

39 H. Shoji

2 N. Yamamoto

20 H. Nagakura

29 K. Miyazaki

15 Y. Nishiya

26 J. Murata

14 Y. Shinomiya

41 S. Shimada

7 R. Tosa

9 K. Buwanika

Coach · Masateru Tsujita

Substitutes

50 · D. Goto

19 · S. Terasaka

3 · H. Hatao

23 · K. Sakakibara

8 · K. Oyama

28 · H. Suzuki

10 · Patric

27 · H. Otani

13 · K. Shirawachi

Our number · osaka winPublished 9 Oct 11:02

47% The market43%

Us47%

~~Market~~43%

We make Osaka a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · osaka win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Osaka win	47%	43%	+4
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Kanazawa win	28%	30%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	56%	−11
Both teams to score	48%	59%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	70%	77%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	24%	35%	−12
Osaka or draw	72%	70%	+3
Osaka clean sheet	36%	–	–
Kanazawa clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 8.1 9.4 4.5 1 12.8 11.7 6.3 2.2 2 8.7 8.8 4.5 3 4.2 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Osaka down, Kanazawa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,754 J3 League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Osaka at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kanazawa away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Osaka, 1.03 for Kanazawa. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~OSA 1–0 KAN · KAN 2–1 OSA · OSA 1–0 KAN · OSA 1–1 KAN

Form · last six in J3 League

OSAKA

DDWWWL0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 4–0 · 0–1

KANAZAWA

LWDLWW0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	9	+9	23
2	Ehime FC	9	+12	20
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	9	+6	17
4	Nara Club	9	+3	17
5	Osaka	9	+9	16
6	Sagamihara	9	+5	15
7	Roasso Kumamoto	9	+3	14
8	FC Gifu	9	+9	13
9	Kanazawa	9	+3	13
10	Biwako Shiga	9	0	13
11	Gainare Tottori	9	−6	13
12	Parceiro Nagano	9	−2	11
13	FC Ryukyu	9	−2	11
14	Tochigi SC	9	−3	10
15	Kitakyushu	9	−4	10
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	9	−3	8
17	Fukushima United	9	−5	7
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	9	−10	6
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	9	−7	5
20	Kochi United	9	−17	5