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Nara Club v Kitakyushu

Nara Club

2–0Full time

Kitakyushu

J3 League · SAT 10 OCT · Konoike Athletic Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 08:32

Nara Club 2–0 Kitakyushu NARA CLUB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nara Club win~~46%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.445

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.401

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nara Club win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF Nara Club v Kitakyushu
2′Much as we predicted: Nara Club was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
6′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Kitakyushu
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Nara Club 1–0 Kitakyushu
24′⚽ GOAL · 25' Nara Club 1–0 Kitakyushu
45′SECOND HALF Nara Club 1–0 Kitakyushu
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Nara Club 2–0 Kitakyushu · Y. Togashi
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Nara Club 2–0 Kitakyushu
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Kitakyushu · On: H. Izawa · Off: Y. Sakashita
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kitakyushu · On: K. Hara · Off: S. Koh
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kitakyushu · On: R. Hirahara · Off: M. Yoshinaga
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Nara Club · On: S. Mochizuki · Off: Y. Togashi
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Nara Club · On: H. Morimoto · Off: R. Ando
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kitakyushu · On: F. Yoshihara · Off: K. Fukumori
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Nara Club · On: S. Ichimura · Off: S. Kawasaki
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Nara Club · On: S. Masuda · Off: S. Kawanishi
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Nara Club · On: K. Takahata · Off: Y. Yoshimura
89′PENALTY MISSED · 90' Kitakyushu
94′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Nara Club
FTFULL TIME Nara Club 2–0 Kitakyushu
FTNara Club 2–0 Kitakyushu · Nara Club win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Nara Club win46%

Draw24%

Kitakyushu win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 06:00

Venue · Konoike Athletic Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Nara Club

Formation not confirmed

96 M. Vito

8 A. Yoshida

16 Y. Okuda

22 K. Ikoma

40 Y. Yoshimura

10 R. Morita

48 S. Kawanishi

54 S. Kawasaki

9 Y. Togashi

11 R. Sato

13 R. Ando

Coach · Masashi Oguro

Substitutes

1 · T. Miyazawa

36 · T. Ishii

27 · M. Nakayama

2 · K. Takahata

30 · S. Masuda

7 · R. Tamura

29 · S. Ichimura

14 · S. Mochizuki

99 · H. Morimoto

Kitakyushu

Formation not confirmed

31 K. Otani

30 K. Fukumori

28 K. Yokokubo

3 R. Kamihashi

20 S. Yasumitsu

66 D. Takahashi

18 S. Hiramatsu

51 Y. Sakashita

8 M. Yoshinaga

52 M. Nishimura

11 S. Koh

Coach · Ryotaro Tanaka

Substitutes

41 · M. Sugimoto

6 · K. Hoshi

4 · K. Hasegawa

5 · T. Narasaka

27 · K. Hara

14 · H. Izawa

7 · R. Hirahara

19 · F. Yoshihara

37 · K. Yoshida

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Nara Club

Formation not confirmed

96 M. Vito

8 A. Yoshida

16 Y. Okuda

22 K. Ikoma

40 Y. Yoshimura

10 R. Morita

48 S. Kawanishi

54 S. Kawasaki

9 Y. Togashi

11 R. Sato

13 R. Ando

Coach · Masashi Oguro

Substitutes

1 · T. Miyazawa

36 · T. Ishii

27 · M. Nakayama

2 · K. Takahata

30 · S. Masuda

7 · R. Tamura

29 · S. Ichimura

14 · S. Mochizuki

99 · H. Morimoto

Kitakyushu

Formation not confirmed

31 K. Otani

30 K. Fukumori

28 K. Yokokubo

3 R. Kamihashi

20 S. Yasumitsu

66 D. Takahashi

18 S. Hiramatsu

51 Y. Sakashita

8 M. Yoshinaga

52 M. Nishimura

11 S. Koh

Coach · Ryotaro Tanaka

Substitutes

41 · M. Sugimoto

6 · K. Hoshi

4 · K. Hasegawa

5 · T. Narasaka

27 · K. Hara

14 · H. Izawa

7 · R. Hirahara

19 · F. Yoshihara

37 · K. Yoshida

Our number · nara club winPublished 10 Oct 06:01

46% The market48%

Us46%

~~Market~~48%

We make Nara Club a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nara club win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nara Club win	46%	48%	−3
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Kitakyushu win	30%	26%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	58%	−8
Both teams to score	52%	60%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	28%	37%	−9
Nara Club or draw	70%	74%	−4
Nara Club clean sheet	32%	–	–
Kitakyushu clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.6 8.8 4.7 1 11.1 11.4 6.9 2.7 2 7.8 8.9 5.1 2.0 3 4.0 4.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nara Club down, Kitakyushu across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,756 J3 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.7% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nara Club at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kitakyushu away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Nara Club, 1.16 for Kitakyushu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KIT 0–1 NAR · NAR 4–0 KIT · NAR 0–2 KIT · KIT 2–1 NAR

Form · last six in J3 League

NARA CLUB

DDWWWW2–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 1–0

KITAKYUSHU

LLLWDW2–4 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	9	+9	23
2	Ehime FC	9	+12	20
3	Sagamihara	10	+6	18
4	Osaka	10	+9	17
5	Renofa Yamaguchi	9	+6	17
6	Nara Club	9	+3	17
7	Kanazawa	10	+3	14
8	Roasso Kumamoto	9	+3	14
9	FC Gifu	9	+9	13
10	Biwako Shiga	9	0	13
11	Gainare Tottori	9	−6	13
12	Parceiro Nagano	9	−2	11
13	FC Ryukyu	9	−2	11
14	Tochigi SC	9	−3	10
15	Kitakyushu	9	−4	10
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	9	−3	8
17	Fukushima United	9	−5	7
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	9	−10	6
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5
20	Kochi United	9	−17	5