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Nara Club v FC Ryukyu

Nara Club

1–3Full time

FC Ryukyu

J3 League · SAT 24 OCT · Konoike Athletic Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31

Nara Club 1–3 FC Ryukyu NARA CLUB WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nara Club win~~51%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.863

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.736

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nara Club win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nara Club was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–26
1′KICK-OFF Nara Club v FC Ryukyu
16′We said Nara Club at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–25–52
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Nara Club 0–1 FC Ryukyu
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Nara Club win: 51% at kick-off, 23% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' FC Ryukyu win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Nara Club win 48%)
17′A goal for FC Ryukyu on 16′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 22–25–52
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Nara Club win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Nara Club 1–1 FC Ryukyu
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Nara Club win: 51% at kick-off, 45% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Nara Club win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was FC Ryukyu win 54%)
27′Nara Club score on 26′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 45–30–25
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' FC Ryukyu
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Nara Club win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
42′We said Nara Club at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–26–59
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Nara Club 1–2 FC Ryukyu
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Nara Club win: 51% at kick-off, 14% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' FC Ryukyu win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Nara Club win 41%)
43′FC Ryukyu find the net on 43′. 1–2. 1–2 · 14–26–60
44′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 14–26–60
45′SECOND HALF Nara Club 1–2 FC Ryukyu
47′HALF-TIME Nara Club 1–2 FC Ryukyu
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nara Club · On: S. Mochizuki · Off: R. Ando
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nara Club · On: K. Ikoma · Off: Y. Yoshimura
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Nara Club win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
56′We said Nara Club at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Nara Club
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Nara Club · On: H. Morimoto · Off: Y. Togashi
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FC Ryukyu · On: T. Ishiura · Off: Y. Tomidokoro
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FC Ryukyu · On: R. Ikeda · Off: S. Iwamoto
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Nara Club · On: R. Tamura · Off: R. Sato
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Nara Club · On: T. Ishii · Off: Y. Okuda
66′We said Nara Club at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–5–94
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Nara Club 1–3 FC Ryukyu
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Nara Club win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
67′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–5–95
68′A goal for FC Ryukyu on 67′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
71′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 4–20–76
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Nara Club 2–3 FC Ryukyu
73′GOAL DISALLOWED · 73' Nara Club
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FC Ryukyu · On: S. Motegi · Off: Y. Kato
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FC Ryukyu · On: K. Sota · Off: K. Ihori
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' FC Ryukyu · On: Y. Koki · Off: H. Asakawa
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Nara Club
FTFULL TIME Nara Club 1–3 FC Ryukyu
FTNara Club 1–3 FC Ryukyu · Nara Club win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nara Club are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nara Club 51%, draw 23%, FC Ryukyu 26%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Nara Club v FC RyukyuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Nara Club win51%

Draw23%

FC Ryukyu win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueKonoike Athletic Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nara Club

FC Ryukyu

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · J3 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Nara Club	12	+4	23
10	FC Ryukyu	12	−1	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nara club winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

51% The market44%

Us51%

~~Market~~44%

We make Nara Club a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nara Club v FC Ryukyu~~1.63 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 19 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 17~~4 v 10

~~The market · Nara Club win~~44% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nara Club win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nara Club win	51%	44%	+7
Draw	23%	26%	−3
FC Ryukyu win	26%	31%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	50%	61%	−11
Both teams to score	52%	63%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	74%	81%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	29%	41%	−12
Nara Club or draw	74%	69%	+5
Nara Club clean sheet	35%	–	–
FC Ryukyu clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.8%

0123450 6.1 8.1 3.9 1 11.8 10.8 6.2 2.2 2 8.9 9.3 5.0 3 4.8 5.1 2.7 4 2.0 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nara Club down, FC Ryukyu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,784 J3 League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nara Club at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Ryukyu away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Nara Club, 1.07 for FC Ryukyu. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FCR 0–2 NAR · NAR 2–1 FCR · FCR 1–4 NAR · NAR 1–2 FCR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 19 Sept

NARA CLUB

WWWWWL3–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

FC RYUKYU

LDLLWW0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	12	+12	29
2	Ehime FC	12	+13	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	+8	23
4	Nara Club	12	+4	23
5	FC Gifu	12	+12	22
6	Sagamihara	12	+7	21
7	Osaka	12	+9	20
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	+7	20
9	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
10	FC Ryukyu	12	−1	17
11	Kanazawa	12	0	14
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	−1	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
14	Gainare Tottori	12	−10	14
15	Tochigi SC	12	−4	13
16	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
17	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	12	−11	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	12	−9	8
20	Kochi United	12	−23	5