Matsumoto Yamaga v Thespakusatsu Gunma prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30

Matsumoto Yamaga 2–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma MATSUMOTO YAMAGA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Matsumoto Yamaga win~~45%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.453

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.340

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Matsumoto Yamaga win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Matsumoto Yamaga was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
1′KICK-OFF Matsumoto Yamaga v Thespakusatsu Gunma
3′We published Matsumoto Yamaga at 45%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–19–12
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Matsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Matsumoto Yamaga win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
5′A goal for Matsumoto Yamaga on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–12
6′A goal for Matsumoto Yamaga on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–12
7′We published Matsumoto Yamaga at 45%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–12
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
45′SECOND HALF Matsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma
46′HALF-TIME Matsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma
48′We published Matsumoto Yamaga at 45%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Matsumoto Yamaga win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: T. Nakashima · Off: R. Fujimura
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: A. Sakurai · Off: M. Nuki
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: K. Kazama · Off: T. Shimokawa
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: K. Matsumoto · Off: M. Farzan Sana
64′We published Matsumoto Yamaga at 45%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: A. Inoue · Off: S. Tanaka
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: S. Kaneko · Off: R. Sawazaki
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: H. Murakami · Off: R. Sato
74′We published Matsumoto Yamaga at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Matsumoto Yamaga win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: T. Harada · Off: M. Hyakuda
81′We published Matsumoto Yamaga at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
87′We published Matsumoto Yamaga at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Matsumoto Yamaga win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: K. Fujieda · Off: Y. Taguchi
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: K. Kitazume · Off: K. Saso
92′We published Matsumoto Yamaga at 45%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Matsumoto Yamaga 2–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma
93′Matsumoto Yamaga score on 90′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
95′Full time, 2–0. We called Matsumoto Yamaga at 45% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Matsumoto Yamaga 2–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma
FTMatsumoto Yamaga 2–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma · Matsumoto Yamaga win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Matsumoto Yamaga are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Matsumoto Yamaga 45%, draw 24%, Thespakusatsu Gunma 31%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Matsumoto Yamaga v Thespakusatsu GunmaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Matsumoto Yamaga win45%

Draw24%

Thespakusatsu Gunma win31%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSunpro Alwin

Line-ups

Matsumoto Yamaga

Thespakusatsu Gunma

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Matsumoto Yamaga

Thespakusatsu Gunma

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 17 Oct · J3 League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	11	−3	11
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	−9	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Matsumoto Yamaga

Formation not confirmed

23 R. Koma

6 H. Noda

4 K. Minoda

16 T. Miyabe

36 G. Matsumura

22 K. Saso

18 R. Sato

8 R. Sawazaki

40 D. Higuchi

19 S. Tanaka

17 Y. Taguchi

Coach · Nobuhiro Ishizaki

Substitutes

31 · M. Kobayashi

30 · K. Kitazume

5 · T. Shirai

43 · K. Kaneko

11 · S. Kaneko

13 · H. Murakami

48 · K. Kawakami

39 · A. Inoue

38 · K. Fujieda

Thespakusatsu Gunma

Formation not confirmed

13 I. Kondo

2 R. Nakamura

16 K. Yamahara

3 R. Ohata

8 R. Kamigaki

22 M. Nuki

20 T. Shimokawa

27 R. Fujimura

19 M. Farzan Sana

18 S. Tanaka

17 M. Hyakuda

Coach · Masaru Okita

Substitutes

78 · S. Okada

30 · T. Koyanagi

28 · J. Nodake

52 · J. Soma

15 · K. Kazama

14 · A. Sakurai

42 · T. Harada

99 · T. Nakashima

29 · K. Matsumoto

Our number · matsumoto yamaga winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

45% The market52%

Us45%

~~Market~~52%

We make Matsumoto Yamaga a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Matsumoto Yamaga v Thespakusatsu Gunma~~1.51 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~16 v 18

~~The market · Matsumoto Yamaga win~~52% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Matsumoto Yamaga win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Matsumoto Yamaga win	45%	52%	−7
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Thespakusatsu Gunma win	31%	22%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	50%	53%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Matsumoto Yamaga or draw	69%	78%	−9
Matsumoto Yamaga clean sheet	31%	–	–
Thespakusatsu Gunma clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.2 8.9 4.8 1 11.0 11.2 7.1 2.8 2 7.6 8.9 5.3 2.1 3 3.9 4.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Matsumoto Yamaga down, Thespakusatsu Gunma across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,774 J3 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Matsumoto Yamaga at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Thespakusatsu Gunma away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga, 1.19 for Thespakusatsu Gunma. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~THE 6–2 MAT · MAT 1–3 THE · THE 1–0 MAT · MAT 1–0 THE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 12 Sept

MATSUMOTO YAMAGA

LDWLWL1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

THESPAKUSATSU GUNMA

LWLLWD0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	11	+10	26
2	Ehime FC	11	+12	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	+9	23
4	Nara Club	11	+6	23
5	Sagamihara	11	+8	21
6	FC Gifu	11	+11	19
7	Osaka	11	+7	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	+4	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
10	FC Ryukyu	12	−1	17
11	Kanazawa	11	+2	14
12	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	−7	14
14	Tochigi SC	12	−4	13
15	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	11	−3	11
17	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	−9	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	−11	5
20	Kochi United	11	−21	5