Matsumoto Yamaga v Renofa Yamaguchi prediction · J3 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Matsumoto YamagaDrawRenofa Yamaguchi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Renofa Yamaguchi 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Renofa Yamaguchi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Matsumoto Yamaga 34%, draw 27%, Renofa Yamaguchi 39%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Matsumoto Yamaga v Renofa YamaguchiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Matsumoto Yamaga win34%

Draw27%

Renofa Yamaguchi win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueSunpro Alwin

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Matsumoto Yamaga

Renofa Yamaguchi

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J3 League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	+8	23
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	−1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · renofa yamaguchi winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Renofa Yamaguchi a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Matsumoto Yamaga v Renofa Yamaguchi~~1.10 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 18 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 23~~12 v 4

~~The market · Renofa Yamaguchi win~~38% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Renofa Yamaguchi win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Matsumoto Yamaga win	34%	35%	−1
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Renofa Yamaguchi win	39%	38%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	40%	50%	−10
Both teams to score	45%	55%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	66%	72%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	20%	30%	−10
Matsumoto Yamaga or draw	61%	62%	−1
Matsumoto Yamaga clean sheet	30%	–	–
Renofa Yamaguchi clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.4 12.9 7.2 2.9 1 11.9 12.2 7.8 3.2 2 6.1 7.1 4.3 3 2.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Matsumoto Yamaga down, Renofa Yamaguchi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,788 J3 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Matsumoto Yamaga at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Renofa Yamaguchi away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga, 1.20 for Renofa Yamaguchi. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MAT 1–1 REN · MAT 1–1 REN · REN 0–0 MAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 18 Sept

MATSUMOTO YAMAGA

DWLWLW0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

RENOFA YAMAGUCHI

WDWWWL2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	13	+11	29
2	Ehime FC	12	+13	26
3	Osaka	13	+10	23
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	+8	23
5	Nara Club	13	+2	23
6	FC Gifu	12	+12	22
7	Sagamihara	13	+7	22
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	+7	20
9	FC Ryukyu	13	+1	20
10	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
11	Kanazawa	12	0	14
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	−1	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
14	Tochigi SC	13	−4	14
15	Gainare Tottori	12	−10	14
16	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	13	−10	13
18	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	−10	8
20	Kochi United	12	−23	5