Matsumoto Yamaga v Kagoshima United prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 07:31

Matsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Kagoshima United KAGOSHIMA UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kagoshima United win~~46%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.754

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.756

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kagoshima United win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kagoshima United was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 29–25–45
1′KICK-OFF Matsumoto Yamaga v Kagoshima United
2′Much as we predicted: Kagoshima United was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 29–26–45
45′SECOND HALF Matsumoto Yamaga 0–0 Kagoshima United
46′HALF-TIME Matsumoto Yamaga 0–0 Kagoshima United
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Kagoshima United · On: A. Takahashi · Off: K. Kawamura
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: Y. Taguchi · Off: S. Tanaka
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: A. Inoue · Off: R. Sato
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Kagoshima United · On: M. Endo · Off: W. Tanaka
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Kagoshima United · On: Juanma Delgado · Off: R. Arita
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Matsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Kagoshima United
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Kagoshima United · On: K. Nakayama · Off: K. Kawashima
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Kagoshima United · On: Y. Nagamine · Off: G. Egawa
83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Matsumoto Yamaga
93′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: K. Kitazume · Off: K. Saso
93′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: T. Shirai · Off: H. Murakami
FTFULL TIME Matsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Kagoshima United
FTMatsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Kagoshima United · Kagoshima United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Matsumoto Yamaga win30%

Draw24%

Kagoshima United win46%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 05:00

VenueSunpro Alwin

Line-ups

Matsumoto Yamaga

Kagoshima United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Matsumoto Yamaga

Kagoshima United

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	9	+9	23
17	Matsumoto Yamaga	9	−3	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Matsumoto Yamaga

Formation not confirmed

21 M. Tomizawa

6 H. Noda

4 K. Minoda

16 T. Miyabe

43 K. Kaneko

22 K. Saso

36 G. Matsumura

13 H. Murakami

40 D. Higuchi

18 R. Sato

19 S. Tanaka

Coach · Nobuhiro Ishizaki

Substitutes

23 · R. Koma

30 · K. Kitazume

5 · T. Shirai

11 · S. Kaneko

48 · K. Kawakami

17 · Y. Taguchi

32 · S. Kunori

39 · A. Inoue

38 · K. Fujieda

Kagoshima United

Formation not confirmed

31 D. Sakata

35 G. Egawa

5 Y. Yamada

36 J. Ikeda

44 Y. Aoki

7 W. Tanaka

27 K. Kawashima

14 K. Yoshio

2 R. Saga

18 K. Kawamura

9 R. Arita

Coach · Hiromasa Suguri

Substitutes

21 · K. Kawakami

13 · Y. Nagamine

16 · K. Muramatsu

8 · K. Fujimura

11 · M. Fukuda

20 · M. Endo

99 · Juanma Delgado

22 · A. Takahashi

55 · K. Nakayama

Our number · kagoshima united winPublished 11 Oct 05:01

46% The market42%

Us46%

~~Market~~42%

We make Kagoshima United a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kagoshima united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Matsumoto Yamaga win	30%	29%	+1
Draw	24%	29%	−5
Kagoshima United win	46%	42%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	47%	+4
Both teams to score	53%	52%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	71%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	27%	+2
Matsumoto Yamaga or draw	54%	58%	−4
Matsumoto Yamaga clean sheet	22%	–	–
Kagoshima United clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.2 10.6 7.7 4.0 1 8.4 11.2 8.9 4.6 2 4.7 7.0 5.3 2.7 3 2.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Matsumoto Yamaga down, Kagoshima United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,760 J3 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Matsumoto Yamaga at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kagoshima United away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga, 1.54 for Kagoshima United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KAG 3–2 MAT · MAT 1–1 KAG · KAG 0–2 MAT · MAT 2–4 KAG

Form · last six in J3 League

MATSUMOTO YAMAGA

DDLDWL1–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

KAGOSHIMA UNITED

WWWWDW4–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	9	+9	23
2	Ehime FC	9	+12	20
3	Nara Club	10	+5	20
4	Sagamihara	10	+6	18
5	Osaka	10	+9	17
6	Renofa Yamaguchi	9	+6	17
7	Kanazawa	10	+3	14
8	Roasso Kumamoto	9	+3	14
9	Biwako Shiga	10	0	14
10	Parceiro Nagano	10	0	14
11	FC Gifu	9	+9	13
12	Gainare Tottori	9	−6	13
13	FC Ryukyu	10	−3	11
14	Tochigi SC	9	−3	10
15	Kitakyushu	10	−6	10
16	Thespakusatsu Gunma	10	−9	9
17	Matsumoto Yamaga	9	−3	8
18	Fukushima United	10	−5	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5
20	Kochi United	10	−19	5