Kochi United v Sagamihara prediction · J3 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kochi UnitedDrawSagamihara

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sagamihara 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sagamihara are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kochi United 27%, draw 25%, Sagamihara 48%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Kochi United v SagamiharaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Kochi United win27%

Draw25%

Sagamihara win48%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueKochi Haruno Athletic Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kochi United

Sagamihara

10Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 24 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Sagamihara	13	+7	22
20	Kochi United	12	−23	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sagamihara winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Sagamihara a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.5, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kochi United v Sagamihara~~1.02 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 19 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 22~~20 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kochi United win	27%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Sagamihara win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Kochi United or draw	52%	–	–
Kochi United clean sheet	24%	–	–
Sagamihara clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.1%

0123450 7.7 13.1 8.9 4.4 1 9.4 11.5 8.9 4.4 2 4.4 6.3 4.5 2.2 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kochi United down, Sagamihara across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,788 J3 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kochi United at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sagamihara away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Kochi United, 1.46 for Sagamihara. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KOC 0–1 SAG · SAG 0–0 KOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 19 Sept

KOCHI UNITED

LLLLLL0–1 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–3

SAGAMIHARA

DWWWLD2–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	13	+11	29
2	Ehime FC	12	+13	26
3	Osaka	13	+10	23
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	+8	23
5	Nara Club	13	+2	23
6	FC Gifu	12	+12	22
7	Sagamihara	13	+7	22
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	+7	20
9	FC Ryukyu	13	+1	20
10	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
11	Kanazawa	12	0	14
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	−1	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
14	Tochigi SC	13	−4	14
15	Gainare Tottori	12	−10	14
16	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	13	−10	13
18	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	−10	8
20	Kochi United	12	−23	5