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Kochi United v Parceiro Nagano

Kochi United

1–3Full time

Parceiro Nagano

J3 League · SAT 10 OCT · Kochi Haruno Athletic Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 08:32

Kochi United 1–3 Parceiro Nagano PARCEIRO NAGANO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Parceiro Nagano win~~38%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.591

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.634

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Parceiro Nagano win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Parceiro Nagano 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 36–28–37
1′KICK-OFF Kochi United v Parceiro Nagano
45′HALF-TIME Kochi United 0–0 Parceiro Nagano
46′SECOND HALF Kochi United 0–0 Parceiro Nagano
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Parceiro Nagano · On: K. Tomita · Off: S. Nakata
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Kochi United 0–1 Parceiro Nagano
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Kochi United · On: A. Nanamure · Off: A. Kawata
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Kochi United · On: R. Sugiyama · Off: K. Sakagishi
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Kochi United 0–2 Parceiro Nagano
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kochi United · On: T. Tanaka · Off: Y. Shimoda
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Kochi United · On: H. Cho · Off: G. Sekino
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Parceiro Nagano · On: H. Shoji · Off: S. Yoshizawa
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Parceiro Nagano · On: H. Shoji · Off: S. Yoshizawa
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Kochi United 0–3 Parceiro Nagano
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Parceiro Nagano · On: K. Kutsuna · Off: T. Kondo
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Parceiro Nagano · On: K. Higuchi · Off: R. Yamanaka
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Parceiro Nagano
FTFULL TIME Kochi United 1–3 Parceiro Nagano
FTKochi United 1–3 Parceiro Nagano · Parceiro Nagano win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kochi United win36%

Draw26%

Parceiro Nagano win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 06:00

Venue · Kochi Haruno Athletic Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Kochi United

Formation not confirmed

17 K. Inose

23 D. Matsumoto

4 D. Kobayashi

22 R. Fujimori

16 S. Kozuki

8 Y. Takano

14 G. Sekino

6 K. Sakagishi

10 T. Sasaki

44 Y. Shimoda

13 A. Kawata

Coach · Takahiro Shimotaira

Substitutes

1 · R. Ono

15 · H. Sakamoto

73 · T. Tanaka

77 · J. Sato

20 · R. Sugiyama

28 · A. Nanamure

19 · I. Origbaajo

7 · A. Kanehara

33 · H. Cho

Parceiro Nagano

Formation not confirmed

21 K. Nakano

26 S. Nakata

7 Y. Ono

13 Y. Tsukegi

24 Z. Watanabe

10 R. Yamanaka

77 D. Morita

40 Y. Hasegawa

8 T. Kondo

28 K. Fujikawa

18 S. Yoshizawa

Coach · Shinji Kobayashi

Substitutes

1 · K. Tajiri

3 · K. Tomita

16 · K. Ishii

25 · K. Tanaka

14 · K. Kutsuna

15 · K. Higuchi

22 · K. Yoshida

11 · K. Shin

19 · H. Shoji

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kochi United

Formation not confirmed

17 K. Inose

23 D. Matsumoto

4 D. Kobayashi

22 R. Fujimori

16 S. Kozuki

8 Y. Takano

14 G. Sekino

6 K. Sakagishi

10 T. Sasaki

44 Y. Shimoda

13 A. Kawata

Coach · Takahiro Shimotaira

Substitutes

1 · R. Ono

15 · H. Sakamoto

73 · T. Tanaka

77 · J. Sato

20 · R. Sugiyama

28 · A. Nanamure

19 · I. Origbaajo

7 · A. Kanehara

33 · H. Cho

Parceiro Nagano

Formation not confirmed

21 K. Nakano

26 S. Nakata

7 Y. Ono

13 Y. Tsukegi

24 Z. Watanabe

10 R. Yamanaka

77 D. Morita

40 Y. Hasegawa

8 T. Kondo

28 K. Fujikawa

18 S. Yoshizawa

Coach · Shinji Kobayashi

Substitutes

1 · K. Tajiri

3 · K. Tomita

16 · K. Ishii

25 · K. Tanaka

14 · K. Kutsuna

15 · K. Higuchi

22 · K. Yoshida

11 · K. Shin

19 · H. Shoji

Our number · parceiro nagano winPublished 10 Oct 06:01

38% The market35%

Us38%

~~Market~~35%

We make Parceiro Nagano a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · parceiro nagano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kochi United win	36%	35%	+1
Draw	26%	30%	−4
Parceiro Nagano win	38%	35%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	44%	0
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	69%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	24%	−1
Kochi United or draw	62%	65%	−2
Kochi United clean sheet	30%	–	–
Parceiro Nagano clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.3 11.4 6.6 2.8 1 11.2 12.1 7.8 3.3 2 6.4 7.7 4.7 3 2.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kochi United down, Parceiro Nagano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,756 J3 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.7% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kochi United at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Parceiro Nagano away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Kochi United, 1.23 for Parceiro Nagano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PAR 0–1 KOC · KOC 1–0 PAR

Form · last six in J3 League

KOCHI UNITED

LLDLLL0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–2

PARCEIRO NAGANO

LDDWLL1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	9	+9	23
2	Ehime FC	9	+12	20
3	Sagamihara	10	+6	18
4	Osaka	10	+9	17
5	Renofa Yamaguchi	9	+6	17
6	Nara Club	9	+3	17
7	Kanazawa	10	+3	14
8	Roasso Kumamoto	9	+3	14
9	FC Gifu	9	+9	13
10	Biwako Shiga	9	0	13
11	Gainare Tottori	9	−6	13
12	Parceiro Nagano	9	−2	11
13	FC Ryukyu	9	−2	11
14	Tochigi SC	9	−3	10
15	Kitakyushu	9	−4	10
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	9	−3	8
17	Fukushima United	9	−5	7
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	9	−10	6
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5
20	Kochi United	9	−17	5