Kitakyushu v Parceiro Nagano prediction · J3 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KitakyushuDrawParceiro Nagano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kitakyushu 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kitakyushu are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kitakyushu 48%, draw 25%, Parceiro Nagano 27%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Kitakyushu v Parceiro NaganoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Kitakyushu win48%

Draw25%

Parceiro Nagano win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueMikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kitakyushu

Parceiro Nagano

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
16	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kitakyushu winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market38%

Us48%

~~Market~~38%

We make Kitakyushu a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kitakyushu v Parceiro Nagano~~1.47 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 20 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 17~~16 v 10

~~The market · Kitakyushu win~~38% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kitakyushu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kitakyushu win	48%	38%	+10
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Parceiro Nagano win	27%	34%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%	−5
Both teams to score	48%	55%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	70%	73%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Kitakyushu or draw	73%	66%	+7
Kitakyushu clean sheet	37%	–	–
Parceiro Nagano clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 7.8 9.4 4.4 1 13.1 11.4 6.2 2.1 2 8.9 8.9 4.5 3 4.4 4.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kitakyushu down, Parceiro Nagano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,788 J3 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kitakyushu at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Parceiro Nagano away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Kitakyushu, 1.02 for Parceiro Nagano. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PAR 1–1 KIT · KIT 2–0 PAR · KIT 1–1 PAR · PAR 3–2 KIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 20 Sept

KITAKYUSHU

WDWLWL2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–2

PARCEIRO NAGANO

WLLWWL1–0 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	13	+11	29
2	Ehime FC	12	+13	26
3	Osaka	13	+10	23
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	+8	23
5	Nara Club	13	+2	23
6	FC Gifu	12	+12	22
7	Sagamihara	13	+7	22
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	+7	20
9	FC Ryukyu	13	+1	20
10	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
11	Kanazawa	12	0	14
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	−1	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
14	Tochigi SC	13	−4	14
15	Gainare Tottori	12	−10	14
16	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	13	−10	13
18	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	−10	8
20	Kochi United	12	−23	5