Kitakyushu v Osaka

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Osaka win at 44%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Osaka 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 30–27–43
3. 1′KICK-OFF Kitakyushu v Osaka
4. 23′We said Osaka at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 61–25–15
5. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Kitakyushu 1–0 Osaka
6. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Osaka win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
7. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Kitakyushu win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Osaka win 15%)
8. 24′Kitakyushu score on 24′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 61–25–14
9. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Osaka win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
10. 25′We said Osaka at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
11. 28′23′: K. Yoshida on the scoresheet for Kitakyushu, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 62–25–13
12. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 62–25–13
13. 36′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Osaka · On: R. Sugawara · Off: K. Isa
14. 44′We said Osaka at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
15. 45′SECOND HALF Kitakyushu 1–0 Osaka
16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Osaka · On: T. Kitsui · Off: G. Yoshida
17. 49′HALF-TIME Kitakyushu 1–0 Osaka
18. 63′We said Osaka at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
19. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Osaka win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
20. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Kitakyushu · On: R. Hirahara · Off: M. Yoshinaga
21. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kitakyushu · On: M. Nishimura · Off: K. Yoshida
22. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Osaka · On: S. Morimura · Off: R. Kubo
23. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Kitakyushu 2–0 Osaka
24. 75′Kitakyushu ahead on 74′ through D. Takahashi. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
25. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Osaka · On: M. Kojima · Off: K. Sakamoto
26. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Osaka · On: K. Fukui · Off: T. Toya
27. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Osaka
28. 80′PENALTY MISSED · 80' Osaka
29. 81′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 89–10–1
30. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Kitakyushu 2–1 Osaka
31. 82′A goal for Osaka on 81′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
32. 83′S. Sumida scores for Osaka on 82′. 3–1 · 100–0–0
33. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Kitakyushu 3–1 Osaka
34. 85′Kitakyushu score on 84′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
35. 86′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
36. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kitakyushu · On: Y. Sakashita · Off: H. Izawa
37. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Kitakyushu · On: T. Narasaka · Off: S. Koh
38. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Osaka
39. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Osaka · On: T. Akiyama · Off: S. Sumida
40. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Kitakyushu · On: S. Maruyama · Off: D. Takahashi
41. 98′3–1 at the end. Our 44% on Osaka misses, and the record keeps it. 3–1 · 100–0–0
42. FTFULL TIME Kitakyushu 3–1 Osaka
43. FTKitakyushu 3–1 Osaka · Osaka win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.