Kanazawa v Nara Club prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:44

Kanazawa 0–1 Nara Club KANAZAWA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kanazawa win~~43%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.684

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.784

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kanazawa win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kanazawa was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
1′KICK-OFF Kanazawa v Nara Club
45′HALF-TIME Kanazawa 0–0 Nara Club
45′SECOND HALF Kanazawa 0–0 Nara Club
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Kanazawa win 34%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Kanazawa win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
54′We said Kanazawa at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–43–26
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 31–44–25
59′We said Kanazawa at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–24
62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Nara Club · On: S. Mochizuki · Off: R. Ando
62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Nara Club · On: R. Tamura · Off: R. Sato
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Nara Club
68′We said Kanazawa at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Kanazawa · On: K. Sakakibara · Off: K. Shirawachi
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Kanazawa · On: Patric · Off: K. Buwanika
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Kanazawa win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
74′We said Kanazawa at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–16
76′We said Kanazawa at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–16–82
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Kanazawa 0–1 Nara Club
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Kanazawa win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Nara Club win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
77′Nara Club score on 77′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–15–83
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nara Club · On: H. Morimoto · Off: S. Kawasaki
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nara Club · On: S. Ichimura · Off: Y. Togashi
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Kanazawa · On: H. Otani · Off: K. Miyazaki
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Kanazawa · On: R. Tosa · Off: S. Shimada
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Kanazawa · On: H. Suzuki · Off: H. Nagakura
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Nara Club · On: K. Takahata · Off: Y. Yoshimura
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Nara Club
94′Full time, 0–1. We called Kanazawa at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Kanazawa 0–1 Nara Club
FTKanazawa 0–1 Nara Club · Kanazawa win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kanazawa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kanazawa 43%, draw 23%, Nara Club 33%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Kanazawa v Nara ClubBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kanazawa win43%

Draw23%

Nara Club win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueIshikawa Athletics Stadium

Line-ups

Kanazawa

Nara Club

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kanazawa

Nara Club

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 10 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Nara Club	10	+5	20
8	Kanazawa	10	+3	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kanazawa

Formation not confirmed

31 I. Ueda

39 H. Shoji

2 N. Yamamoto

20 H. Nagakura

29 K. Miyazaki

15 Y. Nishiya

40 R. Kawakami

14 Y. Shinomiya

41 S. Shimada

13 K. Shirawachi

9 K. Buwanika

Coach · Masateru Tsujita

Substitutes

50 · D. Goto

3 · H. Hatao

23 · K. Sakakibara

8 · K. Oyama

7 · R. Tosa

28 · H. Suzuki

26 · J. Murata

10 · Patric

27 · H. Otani

Nara Club

Formation not confirmed

96 M. Vito

40 Y. Yoshimura

22 K. Ikoma

16 Y. Okuda

8 A. Yoshida

48 S. Kawanishi

10 R. Morita

11 R. Sato

9 Y. Togashi

54 S. Kawasaki

13 R. Ando

Coach · Masashi Oguro

Substitutes

1 · T. Miyazawa

36 · T. Ishii

27 · M. Nakayama

2 · K. Takahata

30 · S. Masuda

7 · R. Tamura

29 · S. Ichimura

14 · S. Mochizuki

99 · H. Morimoto

Our number · kanazawa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market46%

Us43%

~~Market~~46%

We make Kanazawa a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kanazawa v Nara Club~~1.53 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 20~~8 v 4

~~The market · Kanazawa win~~46% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kanazawa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kanazawa win	43%	46%	−3
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Nara Club win	33%	29%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	54%	59%	−5
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	80%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	39%	−7
Kanazawa or draw	67%	71%	−4
Kanazawa clean sheet	27%	–	–
Nara Club clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.4 8.4 5.0 2.2 1 9.7 10.9 7.5 3.3 2 6.8 8.7 5.7 2.5 3 3.5 4.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kanazawa down, Nara Club across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,764 J3 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kanazawa at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nara Club away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Kanazawa, 1.31 for Nara Club. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KAN 1–0 NAR · NAR 5–1 KAN · NAR 2–1 KAN · KAN 2–1 NAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept

KANAZAWA

WDLWWD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

NARA CLUB

DWWWWW2–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ehime FC	10	+14	23
2	Kagoshima United	10	+8	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	10	+7	20
4	Nara Club	10	+5	20
5	Sagamihara	10	+6	18
6	Osaka	10	+9	17
7	FC Gifu	10	+10	16
8	Kanazawa	10	+3	14
9	Roasso Kumamoto	10	+1	14
10	Biwako Shiga	10	0	14
11	Parceiro Nagano	10	0	14
12	Gainare Tottori	11	−7	14
13	Matsumoto Yamaga	10	−2	11
14	FC Ryukyu	10	−3	11
15	Tochigi SC	10	−4	10
16	Kitakyushu	10	−6	10
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	−9	10
18	Fukushima United	10	−5	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5
20	Kochi United	10	−19	5