Kamatamare Sanuki v Roasso Kumamoto prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 08:31

Kamatamare Sanuki 0–3 Roasso Kumamoto ROASSO KUMAMOTO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Roasso Kumamoto win~~42%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.499

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.451

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Roasso Kumamoto win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Roasso Kumamoto 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 29–28–42
1′KICK-OFF Kamatamare Sanuki v Roasso Kumamoto
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Roasso Kumamoto win 35%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Roasso Kumamoto win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
44′A goal for Roasso Kumamoto on 43′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–18–77
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Kamatamare Sanuki 0–1 Roasso Kumamoto
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Roasso Kumamoto win: 42% at kick-off, 77% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Roasso Kumamoto win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 18%)
45′We said Roasso Kumamoto at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 0–1 · 5–18–77
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 5–18–77
45′HALF-TIME Kamatamare Sanuki 0–1 Roasso Kumamoto
46′SECOND HALF Kamatamare Sanuki 0–1 Roasso Kumamoto
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: H. Asada · Off: R. Namimoto
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: Y. Murakami · Off: Y. Goto
54′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Roasso Kumamoto · On: R. Onishi · Off: K. Kobayashi
55′We said Roasso Kumamoto at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Kamatamare Sanuki
60′Roasso Kumamoto score on 59′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
60′We said Roasso Kumamoto at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–2–97
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Kamatamare Sanuki 0–2 Roasso Kumamoto
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Roasso Kumamoto win: 42% at kick-off, 97% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: S. Arita · Off: R. Sano
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Roasso Kumamoto · On: K. Negishi · Off: S. Mishima
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Roasso Kumamoto · On: O. Ishihara · Off: N. Mishina
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: J. Ishikura · Off: R. Yonezawa
80′We said Roasso Kumamoto at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Roasso Kumamoto · On: S. Nagai · Off: K. Fujii
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Roasso Kumamoto · On: T. Nakayama · Off: Bae Jeong-Min
85′Roasso Kumamoto find the net on 85′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
85′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Kamatamare Sanuki 0–3 Roasso Kumamoto
86′GOAL DISALLOWED · 86' Roasso Kumamoto
90′Roasso Kumamoto find the net on 90′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Kamatamare Sanuki 0–3 Roasso Kumamoto
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: Lee Gi-San · Off: H. Oka
FTFULL TIME Kamatamare Sanuki 0–3 Roasso Kumamoto
FTKamatamare Sanuki 0–3 Roasso Kumamoto · Roasso Kumamoto win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Roasso Kumamoto are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kamatamare Sanuki 29%, draw 28%, Roasso Kumamoto 42%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Kamatamare Sanuki v Roasso KumamotoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kamatamare Sanuki win29%

Draw28%

Roasso Kumamoto win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenuePikara

Line-ups

Kamatamare Sanuki

Roasso Kumamoto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kamatamare Sanuki

Roasso Kumamoto

9Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 11 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Roasso Kumamoto	10	+1	14
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kamatamare Sanuki

Formation not confirmed

55 K. Aoki

34 R. Namimoto

30 H. Oka

6 S. Miyazaki

29 K. Tao

33 S. Kawakami

66 S. Woo

60 Y. Morikawa

11 R. Sano

10 Y. Goto

99 R. Yonezawa

Coach · Naoto Otake

Substitutes

1 · Y. Imamura

44 · K. Hayashida

20 · Lee Gi-San

17 · K. Makiyama

14 · J. Ishikura

77 · Y. Murakami

24 · A. Ueno

86 · H. Asada

16 · S. Arita

Roasso Kumamoto

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Sato

4 R. Yakushida

24 T. Ri

5 K. Kobayashi

39 R. Ishida

13 A. Iihoshi

15 S. Mishima

37 H. Ozawa

29 N. Mishina

7 K. Fujii

9 Bae Jeong-Min

Coach · Tomohiro Katanosaka

Substitutes

23 · Y. Sato

27 · K. Negishi

3 · R. Onishi

17 · S. Nagai

11 · R. Watanabe

22 · E. Matsuda

14 · O. Ishihara

10 · Y. Katori

32 · T. Nakayama

Our number · roasso kumamoto winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market45%

Us42%

~~Market~~45%

We make Roasso Kumamoto a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kamatamare Sanuki v Roasso Kumamoto~~0.90 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 14~~19 v 9

~~The market · Roasso Kumamoto win~~45% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Roasso Kumamoto win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kamatamare Sanuki win	29%	27%	+2
Draw	28%	28%	0
Roasso Kumamoto win	42%	45%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	34%	50%	−16
Both teams to score	39%	54%	−15
Over 1.5 goals	60%	73%	−13
Over 3.5 goals	16%	29%	−13
Kamatamare Sanuki or draw	58%	55%	+3
Kamatamare Sanuki clean sheet	32%	–	–
Roasso Kumamoto clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.6%

0123450 12.3 15.6 8.5 3.4 1 12.3 12.1 7.4 2.9 2 5.2 5.9 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kamatamare Sanuki down, Roasso Kumamoto across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,770 J3 League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.7% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kamatamare Sanuki at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Roasso Kumamoto away: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Kamatamare Sanuki, 1.16 for Roasso Kumamoto. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ROA 0–0 KAM · KAM 1–2 ROA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept

KAMATAMARE SANUKI

LLLLDL0–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 2–3

ROASSO KUMAMOTO

DWDWDL2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	11	+10	26
2	Ehime FC	11	+12	23
3	Nara Club	11	+6	23
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	10	+7	20
5	FC Gifu	11	+11	19
6	Sagamihara	10	+6	18
7	Osaka	11	+7	17
8	Kanazawa	11	+2	14
9	Roasso Kumamoto	10	+1	14
10	Biwako Shiga	10	0	14
11	Parceiro Nagano	10	0	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	−2	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	−7	14
14	Kitakyushu	11	−4	13
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	10	−2	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	−5	10
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	−9	10
18	Fukushima United	11	−6	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5
20	Kochi United	10	−19	5