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Kamatamare Sanuki v Kanazawa

Kamatamare Sanuki
3–1Full time
Kanazawa

J3 League · WED 21 OCT · Pikara

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30
Kamatamare Sanuki 3–1 Kanazawa KANAZAWA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kanazawa win47%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.774
The market’s Brier score0.861

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kanazawa win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Kanazawa 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 29–24–47
  3. 1′We said Kanazawa at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 12–18–71
  4. 1′KICK-OFF Kamatamare Sanuki v Kanazawa
  5. 1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Kamatamare Sanuki 0–1 Kanazawa
  6. 1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Kanazawa win: 47% at kick-off, 71% now
  7. 2′Kanazawa score on 2′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–71
  8. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Kamatamare Sanuki 1–1 Kanazawa
  9. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Kanazawa win: 47% at kick-off, 42% now
  10. 26′Kamatamare Sanuki find the net on 26′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–30–42
  11. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Kamatamare Sanuki
  12. 42′We said Kanazawa at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–1 · 62–25–13
  13. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Kamatamare Sanuki 2–1 Kanazawa
  14. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Kanazawa win: 47% at kick-off, 13% now
  15. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Kamatamare Sanuki win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Kanazawa win 38%)
  16. 43′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 62–25–13
  17. 44′S. Arita scores for Kamatamare Sanuki on 43′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 63–25–12
  18. 45′SECOND HALF Kamatamare Sanuki 2–1 Kanazawa
  19. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: S. Miyazaki · Off: Y. Goto
  20. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Kanazawa
  21. 51′HALF-TIME Kamatamare Sanuki 2–1 Kanazawa
  22. 53′We said Kanazawa at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 66–24–9
  23. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Kanazawa win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  24. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Kamatamare Sanuki
  25. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: A. Ueno · Off: S. Woo
  26. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kanazawa · On: Y. Shinomiya · Off: H. Suzuki
  27. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kanazawa · On: K. Shirawachi · Off: R. Tosa
  28. 66′We said Kanazawa at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  29. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Kamatamare Sanuki 3–1 Kanazawa
  30. 67′Kamatamare Sanuki score on 67′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  31. 67′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  32. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kanazawa · On: S. Shimada · Off: K. Sakakibara
  33. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kanazawa · On: H. Otani · Off: K. Miyazaki
  34. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: S. Kawakami · Off: K. Makiyama
  35. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: Y. Morikawa · Off: H. Asada
  36. 88′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  37. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Kamatamare Sanuki 3–2 Kanazawa
  38. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Kamatamare Sanuki · On: R. Sano · Off: S. Arita
  39. 89′GOAL DISALLOWED · 89' Kanazawa
  40. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Kanazawa · On: K. Buwanika · Off: S. Terasaka
  41. FTFULL TIME Kamatamare Sanuki 3–1 Kanazawa
  42. FTKamatamare Sanuki 3–1 Kanazawa · Kanazawa win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kanazawa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kamatamare Sanuki 29%, draw 23%, Kanazawa 47%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Kamatamare Sanuki v KanazawaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Kamatamare Sanuki win29%
Draw23%
Kanazawa win47%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenuePikara

Line-ups

Kamatamare Sanuki

Kanazawa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kamatamare Sanuki

Kanazawa

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 17 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Kanazawa11+214
19Kamatamare Sanuki11−115

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kamatamare Sanuki

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Imamura

44 K. Hayashida

20 Lee Gi-San

40 S. Takashima

17 K. Makiyama

66 S. Woo

14 J. Ishikura

86 H. Asada

16 S. Arita

10 Y. Goto

77 Y. Murakami

Coach · Naoto Otake

Substitutes

55 · K. Aoki

34 · R. Namimoto

6 · S. Miyazaki

33 · S. Kawakami

60 · Y. Morikawa

99 · R. Yonezawa

24 · A. Ueno

11 · R. Sano

19 · Kang Dong-won

Kanazawa

Formation not confirmed

31 I. Ueda

55 D. Matsumoto

3 H. Hatao

19 S. Terasaka

29 K. Miyazaki

15 Y. Nishiya

40 R. Kawakami

28 H. Suzuki

23 K. Sakakibara

7 R. Tosa

10 Patric

Coach · Masateru Tsujita

Substitutes

50 · D. Goto

20 · H. Nagakura

2 · N. Yamamoto

41 · S. Shimada

8 · K. Oyama

14 · Y. Shinomiya

27 · H. Otani

9 · K. Buwanika

13 · K. Shirawachi

Our number · kanazawa winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
47% The market49%
Us47%
Market49%

We make Kanazawa a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kamatamare Sanuki v Kanazawa1.17 – 1.57
Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 13 SeptW0 D1 L5 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 5 v 1419 v 11
The market · Kanazawa win49% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 10:38
Our probability · Kanazawa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kamatamare Sanuki win29%25%+4
Draw23%26%−3
Kanazawa win47%49%−2
Over 2.5 goals51%54%−3
Both teams to score53%57%−4
Over 1.5 goals75%77%−2
Over 3.5 goals30%34%−4
Kamatamare Sanuki or draw53%51%+2
Kamatamare Sanuki clean sheet21%––
Kanazawa clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%
0123450 5.9 10.9 7.9 4.2 1 8.4 11.0 9.0 4.7 2 4.5 6.8 5.3 2.8 3 2.7 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kamatamare Sanuki down, Kanazawa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsKAM 0–1 KAN · KAN 1–0 KAM · KAN 2–1 KAM · KAM 1–1 KAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 13 Sept

KAMATAMARE SANUKI

LLLDLL0–1 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–3

KANAZAWA

DLWWDL1–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kagoshima United11+1026
2Ehime FC11+1223
3Renofa Yamaguchi11+923
4Nara Club11+623
5Sagamihara11+821
6FC Gifu11+1119
7Osaka11+717
8Roasso Kumamoto11+417
9Parceiro Nagano12017
10FC Ryukyu12−117
11Kanazawa11+214
12Biwako Shiga12−314
13Gainare Tottori11−714
14Tochigi SC12−413
15Kitakyushu12−513
16Matsumoto Yamaga11−311
17Fukushima United12−511
18Thespakusatsu Gunma11−910
19Kamatamare Sanuki11−115
20Kochi United11−215

The competition's standings before kick-off.