Kagoshima United v Kochi United prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30

Kagoshima United 3–1 Kochi United KAGOSHIMA UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kagoshima United win~~70%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.132

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.208

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kagoshima United win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kagoshima United was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–13
1′We published Kagoshima United at 70%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
1′KICK-OFF Kagoshima United v Kochi United
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Kagoshima United 1–0 Kochi United
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Kagoshima United win: 70% at kick-off, 87% now
3′A goal for Kagoshima United on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–4
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Kochi United
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Kochi United
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 86–11–3
34′We published Kagoshima United at 70%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–1
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Kagoshima United 2–0 Kochi United
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Kagoshima United win: 70% at kick-off, 97% now
35′Kagoshima United score on 35′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
45′SECOND HALF Kagoshima United 2–0 Kochi United
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Kagoshima United
47′HALF-TIME Kagoshima United 2–0 Kochi United
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Kochi United
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Kagoshima United · On: M. Endo · Off: W. Tanaka
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Kagoshima United · On: K. Kawamura · Off: A. Takahashi
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kochi United · On: G. Sekino · Off: Y. Shimoda
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kochi United · On: R. Sugiyama · Off: A. Kanehara
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Kochi United · On: K. Asano · Off: H. Cho
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Kochi United · On: A. Kawata · Off: I. Origbaajo
78′We published Kagoshima United at 70%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Kagoshima United win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Kagoshima United · On: M. Fukuda · Off: R. Saga
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Kagoshima United · On: S. Inaba · Off: K. Yoshio
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kochi United · On: Y. Mikado · Off: A. Nanamure
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Kochi United
87′Kagoshima United find the net on 87′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Kagoshima United 3–0 Kochi United
89′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Kagoshima United 3–1 Kochi United
90′A goal for Kochi United on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Kagoshima United · On: Juanma Delgado · Off: R. Arita
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Kagoshima United
94′Full time, 3–1. We called Kagoshima United at 70% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Kagoshima United 3–1 Kochi United
FTKagoshima United 3–1 Kochi United · Kagoshima United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kagoshima United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kagoshima United 70%, draw 17%, Kochi United 13%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Kagoshima United v Kochi UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Kagoshima United win70%

Draw17%

Kochi United win13%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueShiranami Stadium

Line-ups

Kagoshima United

Kochi United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kagoshima United

Kochi United

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 18 Oct · J3 League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kagoshima United

Formation not confirmed

31 D. Sakata

27 K. Kawashima

5 Y. Yamada

35 G. Egawa

44 Y. Aoki

7 W. Tanaka

14 K. Yoshio

8 K. Fujimura

2 R. Saga

22 A. Takahashi

9 R. Arita

Coach · Hiromasa Suguri

Substitutes

21 · K. Kawakami

36 · J. Ikeda

16 · K. Muramatsu

19 · S. Inaba

11 · M. Fukuda

20 · M. Endo

99 · Juanma Delgado

18 · K. Kawamura

55 · K. Nakayama

Kochi United

Formation not confirmed

17 K. Inose

15 H. Sakamoto

4 D. Kobayashi

22 R. Fujimori

16 S. Kozuki

8 Y. Takano

44 Y. Shimoda

33 H. Cho

7 A. Kanehara

28 A. Nanamure

19 I. Origbaajo

Coach · Takahiro Shimotaira

Substitutes

1 · R. Ono

23 · D. Matsumoto

76 · Y. Mikado

73 · T. Tanaka

14 · G. Sekino

77 · J. Sato

26 · K. Asano

13 · A. Kawata

20 · R. Sugiyama

Our number · kagoshima united winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

70% The market63%

Us70%

~~Market~~63%

We make Kagoshima United a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kagoshima United v Kochi United~~2.33 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 26 v 5~~1 v 20

~~The market · Kagoshima United win~~63% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kagoshima United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 70% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kagoshima United win	70%	63%	+7
Draw	17%	23%	−6
Kochi United win	13%	14%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	52%	+9
Both teams to score	51%	48%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	75%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	39%	32%	+7
Kagoshima United or draw	87%	86%	+1
Kagoshima United clean sheet	43%	–	–
Kochi United clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%

0123450 3.9 4.2 1 10.3 7.7 3.5 2 11.1 9.4 4.0 3 8.6 7.2 3.1 4 5.0 4.2 5 2.4 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Kagoshima United down, Kochi United across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,774 J3 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kagoshima United at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kochi United away: 0.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.33 goals for Kagoshima United, 0.86 for Kochi United. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAG 4–1 KOC · KOC 2–2 KAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 13 Sept

KAGOSHIMA UNITED

WWDWLW2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 4–2

KOCHI UNITED

DLLLLL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	11	+10	26
2	Ehime FC	11	+12	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	+9	23
4	Nara Club	11	+6	23
5	Sagamihara	11	+8	21
6	FC Gifu	11	+11	19
7	Osaka	11	+7	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	+4	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
10	FC Ryukyu	12	−1	17
11	Kanazawa	11	+2	14
12	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	−7	14
14	Tochigi SC	12	−4	13
15	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	11	−3	11
17	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	−9	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	−11	5
20	Kochi United	11	−21	5