Kagoshima United v Ehime FC prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:44

Kagoshima United 4–2 Ehime FC KAGOSHIMA UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kagoshima United win~~41%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.539

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.462

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kagoshima United win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kagoshima United was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–22–37
1′KICK-OFF Kagoshima United v Ehime FC
32′We published Kagoshima United at 41%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–13
32′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 66–21–13
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Kagoshima United 1–0 Ehime FC
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Kagoshima United win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
33′Kagoshima United find the net on 32′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–21–13
41′We published Kagoshima United at 41%. Our model now makes it 89%. 2–0 · 89–8–3
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Kagoshima United 2–0 Ehime FC
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Kagoshima United win: 41% at kick-off, 89% now
42′A goal for Kagoshima United on 42′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
43′We published Kagoshima United at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
45′SECOND HALF Kagoshima United 2–0 Ehime FC
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Kagoshima United win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
48′HALF-TIME Kagoshima United 2–0 Ehime FC
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ehime FC · On: M. Hayashi · Off: K. Miyamoto
49′We published Kagoshima United at 41%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–0
49′Kagoshima United score on 49′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Kagoshima United 3–0 Ehime FC
58′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 93–5–1
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Kagoshima United 3–1 Ehime FC
59′Ehime FC find the net on 59′. 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Ehime FC · On: R. Kabayama · Off: Y. Yamashita
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Ehime FC · On: H. Fukushima · Off: T. Shibata
61′Ehime FC pull one back on 60′ through S. Tamura. 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
63′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 99–1–0
63′A goal for Kagoshima United on 63′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Kagoshima United 4–1 Ehime FC
64′6 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 95–4–1
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Kagoshima United 4–2 Ehime FC
65′Ehime FC score on 65′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 95–4–1
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Kagoshima United · On: M. Endo · Off: W. Tanaka
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Kagoshima United · On: K. Kawamura · Off: A. Takahashi
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kagoshima United · On: K. Nakayama · Off: R. Arita
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kagoshima United · On: S. Inaba · Off: K. Yoshio
84′We published Kagoshima United at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
87′S. Hino scores for Ehime FC on 65′. 4–2 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ehime FC · On: M. Hayashi · Off: K. Miyamoto
87′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Ehime FC · On: R. Kabayama · Off: Y. Yamashita
87′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Ehime FC · On: H. Fukushima · Off: T. Shibata
87′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Kagoshima United · On: M. Endo · Off: W. Tanaka
87′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Kagoshima United · On: K. Kawamura · Off: A. Takahashi
87′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kagoshima United · On: K. Nakayama · Off: R. Arita
87′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kagoshima United · On: S. Inaba · Off: K. Yoshio
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Kagoshima United · On: K. Kawashima · Off: R. Saga
96′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ehime FC · On: Y. Fujimoto · Off: S. Tamura
FTFULL TIME Kagoshima United 4–2 Ehime FC
FTKagoshima United 4–2 Ehime FC · Kagoshima United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Kagoshima United just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kagoshima United 41%, draw 22%, Ehime FC 37%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Kagoshima United v Ehime FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kagoshima United win41%

Draw22%

Ehime FC win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueShiranami Stadium

Line-ups

Kagoshima United

Ehime FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kagoshima United

Ehime FC

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · J3 League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kagoshima United

Formation not confirmed

31 D. Sakata

35 G. Egawa

5 Y. Yamada

36 J. Ikeda

44 Y. Aoki

7 W. Tanaka

14 K. Yoshio

8 K. Fujimura

2 R. Saga

22 A. Takahashi

9 R. Arita

Coach · Hiromasa Suguri

Substitutes

21 · K. Kawakami

27 · K. Kawashima

16 · K. Muramatsu

19 · S. Inaba

11 · M. Fukuda

20 · M. Endo

99 · Juanma Delgado

18 · K. Kawamura

55 · K. Nakayama

Ehime FC

Formation not confirmed

36 S. Tsuji

5 T. Kuroishi

50 K. Sugiyama

37 R. Ishio

8 S. Kamimura

18 T. Shibata

13 Y. Yamashita

23 K. Miyamoto

49 R. Abe

17 S. Tamura

38 S. Hino

Coach · Takeshi Oki

Substitutes

45 · K. Makiguchi

3 · H. Fukushima

99 · R. Kabayama

28 · A. Kozakai

22 · Y. Takemoto

16 · K. Hosoya

39 · H. Muto

9 · Y. Fujimoto

44 · M. Hayashi

Our number · kagoshima united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

41% The market44%

Us41%

~~Market~~44%

We make Kagoshima United a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kagoshima United v Ehime FC~~1.63 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 23~~2 v 1

~~The market · Kagoshima United win~~44% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kagoshima United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kagoshima United win	41%	44%	−3
Draw	22%	27%	−5
Ehime FC win	37%	28%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	61%	52%	+9
Both teams to score	62%	56%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	81%	74%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	39%	32%	+7
Kagoshima United or draw	63%	72%	−9
Kagoshima United clean sheet	22%	–	–
Ehime FC clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.8 7.2 5.0 2.6 1 7.5 9.8 7.9 4.1 2 5.6 8.3 6.3 3.3 3 3.0 4.5 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kagoshima United down, Ehime FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,764 J3 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kagoshima United at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ehime FC away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Kagoshima United, 1.55 for Ehime FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KAG 4–0 EHI · EHI 2–2 KAG · EHI 0–2 KAG · KAG 1–2 EHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept

KAGOSHIMA UNITED

WWWDWL2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–1

EHIME FC

WLWDWW4–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ehime FC	10	+14	23
2	Kagoshima United	10	+8	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	10	+7	20
4	Nara Club	10	+5	20
5	Sagamihara	10	+6	18
6	Osaka	10	+9	17
7	FC Gifu	10	+10	16
8	Kanazawa	10	+3	14
9	Roasso Kumamoto	10	+1	14
10	Biwako Shiga	10	0	14
11	Parceiro Nagano	10	0	14
12	Gainare Tottori	11	−7	14
13	Matsumoto Yamaga	10	−2	11
14	FC Ryukyu	10	−3	11
15	Tochigi SC	10	−4	10
16	Kitakyushu	10	−6	10
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	−9	10
18	Fukushima United	10	−5	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5
20	Kochi United	10	−19	5