

Gainare Tottori v Thespakusatsu Gunma
Gainare Tottori
Thespakusatsu GunmaJ3 League · SAT 17 OCT · Axis Bird Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Gainare Tottori win at 43%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Gainare Tottori v Thespakusatsu Gunma
- 1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Gainare Tottori 0–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma
- 1′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 1' Gainare Tottori win: 43% at kick-off, 22% now
- 1′THE CALL SWINGS · 1' Thespakusatsu Gunma win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Gainare Tottori win 22%)
- 2′Thespakusatsu Gunma find the net on 1′. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–21–57
- 2′We said Gainare Tottori at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–21–57
- 8′A goal for Gainare Tottori on 7′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 42–24–34
- 8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Gainare Tottori 1–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma
- 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Gainare Tottori win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
- 8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Gainare Tottori win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Thespakusatsu Gunma win 34%)
- 9′Little has changed for our model: Gainare Tottori 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 1–1 · 42–24–34
- 45′HALF-TIME Gainare Tottori 1–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma
- 45′SECOND HALF Gainare Tottori 1–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma
- 47′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 34–37–29
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Gainare Tottori win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
- 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Gainare Tottori win 33%)
- 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: A. Sakurai · Off: T. Shimokawa
- 56′We said Gainare Tottori at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–42–26
- 60′We said Gainare Tottori at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–46–25
- 60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Gainare Tottori · On: A. Tojo · Off: I. Fujita
- 60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Gainare Tottori · On: N. Miki · Off: H. Konishi
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: K. Matsumoto · Off: R. Fujimura
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Gainare Tottori win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: S. Kotake · Off: M. Nuki
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Gainare Tottori · On: I. Yoshida · Off: S. Yamamoto
- 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Thespakusatsu Gunma
- 76′We said Gainare Tottori at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
- 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Thespakusatsu Gunma
- 80′We said Gainare Tottori at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–13
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: S. Tanaka · Off: T. Nakashima
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: R. Kamigaki · Off: J. Nodake
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Gainare Tottori win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Gainare Tottori · On: D. Shinoda · Off: K. Hombo
- 85′We said Gainare Tottori at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
- 91′We said Gainare Tottori at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
- 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Gainare Tottori win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
- 93′1–1 at the end. Our 43% on Gainare Tottori misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
- FTFULL TIME Gainare Tottori 1–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma
- FTGainare Tottori 1–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma · Gainare Tottori win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassGainare Tottori are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Gainare Tottori 43%, draw 22%, Thespakusatsu Gunma 35%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Gainare Tottori win43%
Thespakusatsu Gunma win35%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 06:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueAxis Bird Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Gainare TottoriMIN
Thespakusatsu GunmaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Gainare Tottori
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Gainare Tottori
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Last match: 14 Oct · J-League Cup
Last match: 10 Oct · J3 League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Gainare Tottori
Formation not confirmed
47 R. Momoi
3 S. T. Nozawa Van Eerden
4 S. Nikaido
55 H. Oshima
16 Y. Tasei
7 R. Arai
2 I. Fujita
27 K. Hombo
14 T. Kawamura
19 S. Yamamoto
29 H. Konishi
Coach · Kentaro Hayashi
Substitutes
88 · A. Burns
32 · M. Moon
42 · M. Kaneura
15 · T. Kiuchi
10 · N. Miki
22 · I. Yoshida
8 · A. Tojo
24 · K. Hoshi
9 · D. Shinoda
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Formation not confirmed
13 I. Kondo
2 R. Nakamura
16 K. Yamahara
3 R. Ohata
22 M. Nuki
28 J. Nodake
27 R. Fujimura
19 M. Farzan Sana
20 T. Shimokawa
17 M. Hyakuda
99 T. Nakashima
Coach · Masaru Okita
Substitutes
78 · S. Okada
30 · T. Koyanagi
8 · R. Kamigaki
15 · K. Kazama
77 · S. Kotake
4 · T. Tamashiro
14 · A. Sakurai
18 · S. Tanaka
29 · K. Matsumoto
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Gainare Tottori
Formation not confirmed
47 R. Momoi
3 S. T. Nozawa Van Eerden
4 S. Nikaido
55 H. Oshima
16 Y. Tasei
7 R. Arai
2 I. Fujita
27 K. Hombo
14 T. Kawamura
19 S. Yamamoto
29 H. Konishi
Coach · Kentaro Hayashi
Substitutes
88 · A. Burns
32 · M. Moon
42 · M. Kaneura
15 · T. Kiuchi
10 · N. Miki
22 · I. Yoshida
8 · A. Tojo
24 · K. Hoshi
9 · D. Shinoda
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Formation not confirmed
13 I. Kondo
2 R. Nakamura
16 K. Yamahara
3 R. Ohata
22 M. Nuki
28 J. Nodake
27 R. Fujimura
19 M. Farzan Sana
20 T. Shimokawa
17 M. Hyakuda
99 T. Nakashima
Coach · Masaru Okita
Substitutes
78 · S. Okada
30 · T. Koyanagi
8 · R. Kamigaki
15 · K. Kazama
77 · S. Kotake
4 · T. Tamashiro
14 · A. Sakurai
18 · S. Tanaka
29 · K. Matsumoto
We make Gainare Tottori a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gainare Tottori win | 43% | 37% | +6 |
| Draw | 22% | 27% | −5 |
| Thespakusatsu Gunma win | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 55% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 33% | +5 |
| Gainare Tottori or draw | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Gainare Tottori clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
| Thespakusatsu Gunma clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept
GAINARE TOTTORI
THESPAKUSATSU GUNMA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehime FC | 10 | +14 | 23 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 10 | +8 | 23 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 10 | +5 | 20 |
| 5 | Sagamihara | 10 | +6 | 18 |
| 6 | Osaka | 10 | +9 | 17 |
| 7 | FC Gifu | 10 | +10 | 16 |
| 8 | Kanazawa | 10 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 | Roasso Kumamoto | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Biwako Shiga | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Gainare Tottori | 10 | −7 | 13 |
| 13 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 10 | −2 | 11 |
| 14 | FC Ryukyu | 10 | −3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 10 | −4 | 10 |
| 16 | Kitakyushu | 10 | −6 | 10 |
| 17 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 10 | −9 | 9 |
| 18 | Fukushima United | 10 | −5 | 8 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | −8 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 10 | −19 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Ehime FC
Kagoshima United
Renofa Yamaguchi
Nara Club
Sagamihara
Osaka
FC Gifu
Kanazawa
Roasso Kumamoto
Biwako Shiga
Parceiro Nagano
Matsumoto Yamaga
FC Ryukyu
Tochigi SC
Kitakyushu
Fukushima United
Kamatamare Sanuki
Kochi United