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Gainare Tottori v Thespakusatsu Gunma

Gainare Tottori
1–1Full time
Thespakusatsu Gunma

J3 League · SAT 17 OCT · Axis Bird Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 08:31
Gainare Tottori 1–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma GAINARE TOTTORI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Gainare Tottori win43%
The market said37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.909
The market’s Brier score0.801

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Gainare Tottori win at 43%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Gainare Tottori v Thespakusatsu Gunma
  3. 1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Gainare Tottori 0–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma
  4. 1′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 1' Gainare Tottori win: 43% at kick-off, 22% now
  5. 1′THE CALL SWINGS · 1' Thespakusatsu Gunma win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Gainare Tottori win 22%)
  6. 2′Thespakusatsu Gunma find the net on 1′. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–21–57
  7. 2′We said Gainare Tottori at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–21–57
  8. 8′A goal for Gainare Tottori on 7′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 42–24–34
  9. 8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Gainare Tottori 1–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma
  10. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Gainare Tottori win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
  11. 8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Gainare Tottori win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Thespakusatsu Gunma win 34%)
  12. 9′Little has changed for our model: Gainare Tottori 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 1–1 · 42–24–34
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Gainare Tottori 1–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Gainare Tottori 1–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma
  15. 47′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 34–37–29
  16. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Gainare Tottori win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
  17. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Gainare Tottori win 33%)
  18. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: A. Sakurai · Off: T. Shimokawa
  19. 56′We said Gainare Tottori at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–42–26
  20. 60′We said Gainare Tottori at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–46–25
  21. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Gainare Tottori · On: A. Tojo · Off: I. Fujita
  22. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Gainare Tottori · On: N. Miki · Off: H. Konishi
  23. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: K. Matsumoto · Off: R. Fujimura
  24. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Gainare Tottori win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
  25. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: S. Kotake · Off: M. Nuki
  26. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Gainare Tottori · On: I. Yoshida · Off: S. Yamamoto
  27. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Thespakusatsu Gunma
  28. 76′We said Gainare Tottori at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
  29. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Thespakusatsu Gunma
  30. 80′We said Gainare Tottori at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–13
  31. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: S. Tanaka · Off: T. Nakashima
  32. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Thespakusatsu Gunma · On: R. Kamigaki · Off: J. Nodake
  33. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Gainare Tottori win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
  34. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Gainare Tottori · On: D. Shinoda · Off: K. Hombo
  35. 85′We said Gainare Tottori at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
  36. 91′We said Gainare Tottori at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  37. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Gainare Tottori win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  38. 93′1–1 at the end. Our 43% on Gainare Tottori misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  39. FTFULL TIME Gainare Tottori 1–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma
  40. FTGainare Tottori 1–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma · Gainare Tottori win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gainare Tottori are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gainare Tottori 43%, draw 22%, Thespakusatsu Gunma 35%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Gainare Tottori v Thespakusatsu GunmaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gainare Tottori win43%
Draw22%
Thespakusatsu Gunma win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAxis Bird Stadium

Line-ups

Gainare Tottori

Thespakusatsu Gunma

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gainare Tottori

Thespakusatsu Gunma

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · J-League Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · J3 League

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
12Gainare Tottori10−713
17Thespakusatsu Gunma10−99

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gainare Tottori

Formation not confirmed

47 R. Momoi

3 S. T. Nozawa Van Eerden

4 S. Nikaido

55 H. Oshima

16 Y. Tasei

7 R. Arai

2 I. Fujita

27 K. Hombo

14 T. Kawamura

19 S. Yamamoto

29 H. Konishi

Coach · Kentaro Hayashi

Substitutes

88 · A. Burns

32 · M. Moon

42 · M. Kaneura

15 · T. Kiuchi

10 · N. Miki

22 · I. Yoshida

8 · A. Tojo

24 · K. Hoshi

9 · D. Shinoda

Thespakusatsu Gunma

Formation not confirmed

13 I. Kondo

2 R. Nakamura

16 K. Yamahara

3 R. Ohata

22 M. Nuki

28 J. Nodake

27 R. Fujimura

19 M. Farzan Sana

20 T. Shimokawa

17 M. Hyakuda

99 T. Nakashima

Coach · Masaru Okita

Substitutes

78 · S. Okada

30 · T. Koyanagi

8 · R. Kamigaki

15 · K. Kazama

77 · S. Kotake

4 · T. Tamashiro

14 · A. Sakurai

18 · S. Tanaka

29 · K. Matsumoto

Our number · gainare tottori winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off
43% The market37%
Us43%
Market37%

We make Gainare Tottori a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Gainare Tottori v Thespakusatsu Gunma1.66 – 1.46
Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 13 v 912 v 17
The market · Gainare Tottori win37% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 05:24
Our probability · Gainare Tottori win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Gainare Tottori win43%37%+6
Draw22%27%−5
Thespakusatsu Gunma win35%36%−1
Over 2.5 goals60%55%+5
Both teams to score61%59%+2
Over 1.5 goals81%77%+4
Over 3.5 goals38%33%+5
Gainare Tottori or draw65%64%+1
Gainare Tottori clean sheet24%––
Thespakusatsu Gunma clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%
0123450 4.1 7.2 4.7 2.3 1 8.1 10.0 7.6 3.7 2 6.1 8.7 6.2 3.0 3 3.4 4.8 3.5 4 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Gainare Tottori down, Thespakusatsu Gunma across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsGAI 3–1 THE · THE 2–0 GAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept

GAINARE TOTTORI

LWLLWL0–3 · 4–2 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–1

THESPAKUSATSU GUNMA

LLWLLW1–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ehime FC10+1423
2Kagoshima United10+823
3Renofa Yamaguchi10+720
4Nara Club10+520
5Sagamihara10+618
6Osaka10+917
7FC Gifu10+1016
8Kanazawa10+314
9Roasso Kumamoto10+114
10Biwako Shiga10014
11Parceiro Nagano10014
12Gainare Tottori10−713
13Matsumoto Yamaga10−211
14FC Ryukyu10−311
15Tochigi SC10−410
16Kitakyushu10−610
17Thespakusatsu Gunma10−99
18Fukushima United10−58
19Kamatamare Sanuki10−85
20Kochi United10−195

The competition's standings before kick-off.