Gainare Tottori v Kochi United prediction · J3 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Gainare TottoriDrawKochi United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 04:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gainare Tottori 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gainare Tottori are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gainare Tottori 54%, draw 22%, Kochi United 24%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Gainare Tottori v Kochi UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Gainare Tottori win54%

Draw22%

Kochi United win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 04:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueAxis Bird Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gainare Tottori

Kochi United

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J3 League

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Gainare Tottori	12	−10	14
20	Kochi United	12	−23	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gainare tottori winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

54% The market43%

Us54%

~~Market~~43%

We make Gainare Tottori a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gainare Tottori v Kochi United~~1.78 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 14 v 5~~15 v 20

~~The market · Gainare Tottori win~~43% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gainare Tottori win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gainare Tottori win	54%	43%	+11
Draw	22%	28%	−6
Kochi United win	24%	29%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	55%	49%	+6
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	72%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	33%	28%	+5
Gainare Tottori or draw	76%	71%	+5
Gainare Tottori clean sheet	34%	–	–
Kochi United clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.8%

0123450 5.1 7.0 3.4 1 10.8 10.1 5.9 2.2 2 8.9 9.5 5.2 3 5.3 5.7 3.1 4 2.4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gainare Tottori down, Kochi United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,784 J3 League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gainare Tottori at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kochi United away: 0.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Gainare Tottori, 1.10 for Kochi United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GAI 1–0 KOC · KOC 0–0 GAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 19 Sept

GAINARE TOTTORI

LLWLDL2–3 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3

KOCHI UNITED

LLLLLL0–1 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	13	+11	29
2	Ehime FC	12	+13	26
3	Osaka	13	+10	23
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	+8	23
5	Nara Club	13	+2	23
6	FC Gifu	12	+12	22
7	Sagamihara	13	+7	22
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	+7	20
9	FC Ryukyu	13	+1	20
10	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
11	Kanazawa	12	0	14
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	−1	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
14	Tochigi SC	13	−4	14
15	Gainare Tottori	12	−10	14
16	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	13	−10	13
18	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	−10	8
20	Kochi United	12	−23	5