Gainare Tottori v FC Gifu prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 08:33

Gainare Tottori 0–1 FC Gifu FC GIFU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Gifu win~~43%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.499

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.394

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Gifu win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Gifu was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 35–23–42
1′KICK-OFF Gainare Tottori v FC Gifu
2′Much as we predicted: FC Gifu was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 34–23–42
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' FC Gifu
38′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Gainare Tottori
45′SECOND HALF Gainare Tottori 0–0 FC Gifu
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Gifu · On: S. Ogushi · Off: Y. Yashiki
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Gainare Tottori 0–1 FC Gifu
49′⚽ GOAL · 50' Gainare Tottori 0–1 FC Gifu
61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' FC Gifu
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Gainare Tottori
61′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Gainare Tottori
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' M. Lorenz · Gainare Tottori
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Gainare Tottori · On: S. Yamamoto · Off: N. Miki
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Gainare Tottori · On: I. Fujita · Off: A. Tojo
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Gifu · On: H. Suzuki · Off: J. Izumisawa
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Gainare Tottori · On: M. Moon · Off: T. Kawamura
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Gainare Tottori · On: M. Moon · Off: T. Kawamura
77′🟨 YELLOW · 32' J. Izumisawa · FC Gifu
77′🟨 YELLOW · 39' M. Lorenz · Gainare Tottori
77′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Gifu · On: S. Ogushi · Off: Y. Yashiki
77′⚽ GOAL · 50' Gainare Tottori 0–1 FC Gifu · K. Yakabi
77′🟥 RED CARD · 62' M. Lorenz · Gainare Tottori
77′🟨 YELLOW · 62' M. Lorenz · Gainare Tottori
77′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Gainare Tottori · On: S. Yamamoto · Off: N. Miki
77′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Gainare Tottori · On: I. Fujita · Off: A. Tojo
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Gifu · On: Kim Yu-Geon · Off: K. Yakabi
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Gifu · On: H. Suzuki · Off: J. Izumisawa
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Gainare Tottori · On: M. Moon · Off: T. Kawamura
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Gainare Tottori · On: I. Yoshida · Off: D. Shinoda
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Gainare Tottori 0–2 FC Gifu · K. Yakabi
87′⚽ GOAL · 88' Gainare Tottori 0–1 FC Gifu
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FC Gifu · On: H. Take · Off: H. Asada
FTFULL TIME Gainare Tottori 0–1 FC Gifu
FTGainare Tottori 0–1 FC Gifu · FC Gifu win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gainare Tottori win35%

Draw22%

FC Gifu win43%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 06:00

VenueAxis Bird Stadium

Line-ups

Gainare Tottori

FC Gifu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gainare Tottori

FC Gifu

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	FC Gifu	9	+9	13
12	Gainare Tottori	9	−6	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gainare Tottori

Formation not confirmed

47 R. Momoi

20 M. Lorenz

4 S. Nikaido

55 H. Oshima

16 Y. Tasei

14 T. Kawamura

8 A. Tojo

27 K. Hombo

7 R. Arai

10 N. Miki

9 D. Shinoda

Coach · Kentaro Hayashi

Substitutes

71 · U. Hayakawa

3 · S. T. Nozawa Van Eerden

32 · M. Moon

42 · M. Kaneura

2 · I. Fujita

15 · T. Kiuchi

22 · I. Yoshida

29 · H. Konishi

19 · S. Yamamoto

FC Gifu

Formation not confirmed

77 R. Haruna

7 T. Hakozaki

34 K. Yumine

27 K. Haneda

22 Mun In-Ju

9 S. Nakamura

10 R. Kita

98 K. Yakabi

50 Y. Yashiki

39 J. Izumisawa

43 H. Asada

Coach · Kiyotaka Ishimaru

Substitutes

55 · S. Sato

66 · F. Kitajima

26 · S. Ogushi

4 · K. Kai

90 · Kim Yu-Geon

3 · K. Hagino

14 · H. Suzuki

47 · T. Matsui

95 · H. Take

Our number · fc gifu winPublished 11 Oct 06:01

43% The market49%

Us43%

~~Market~~49%

We make FC Gifu a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc gifu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gainare Tottori win	35%	26%	+10
Draw	22%	26%	−4
FC Gifu win	43%	49%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	63%	54%	+9
Both teams to score	63%	56%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	83%	76%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	41%	33%	+8
Gainare Tottori or draw	57%	51%	+6
Gainare Tottori clean sheet	18%	–	–
FC Gifu clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.5 7.2 5.6 3.3 1 6.5 9.6 8.5 4.9 2.2 2 4.6 7.6 6.5 3.7 3 2.4 3.9 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gainare Tottori down, FC Gifu across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,760 J3 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.40 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gainare Tottori at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Gifu away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Gainare Tottori, 1.73 for FC Gifu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCG 2–4 GAI · GAI 3–0 FCG · FCG 0–1 GAI · GAI 2–4 FCG

Form · last six in J3 League

GAINARE TOTTORI

WLWLLW1–0 · 0–3 · 4–2 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 1–0

FC GIFU

WLLLWL4–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 4–3 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	9	+9	23
2	Ehime FC	9	+12	20
3	Nara Club	10	+5	20
4	Sagamihara	10	+6	18
5	Osaka	10	+9	17
6	Renofa Yamaguchi	9	+6	17
7	Kanazawa	10	+3	14
8	Roasso Kumamoto	9	+3	14
9	Biwako Shiga	10	0	14
10	Parceiro Nagano	10	0	14
11	FC Gifu	9	+9	13
12	Gainare Tottori	9	−6	13
13	FC Ryukyu	10	−3	11
14	Tochigi SC	9	−3	10
15	Kitakyushu	10	−6	10
16	Thespakusatsu Gunma	10	−9	9
17	Matsumoto Yamaga	9	−3	8
18	Fukushima United	10	−5	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5
20	Kochi United	10	−19	5