Fukushima United v Matsumoto Yamaga prediction · J3 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fukushima UnitedDrawMatsumoto Yamaga

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Fukushima United 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fukushima United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fukushima United 42%, draw 22%, Matsumoto Yamaga 35%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Fukushima United v Matsumoto YamagaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Fukushima United win42%

Draw22%

Matsumoto Yamaga win35%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueToho

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fukushima United

Matsumoto Yamaga

10Days since last match10

Last match: 21 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	−1	14
18	Fukushima United	12	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fukushima united winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Fukushima United a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fukushima United v Matsumoto Yamaga~~1.60 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 14~~18 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fukushima United win	42%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Matsumoto Yamaga win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Fukushima United or draw	65%	–	–
Fukushima United clean sheet	24%	–	–
Matsumoto Yamaga clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.2 7.7 5.0 2.4 1 8.5 10.1 7.8 3.8 2 6.1 8.6 6.1 3.0 3 3.3 4.6 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fukushima United down, Matsumoto Yamaga across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,788 J3 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fukushima United at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Matsumoto Yamaga away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Fukushima United, 1.44 for Matsumoto Yamaga. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAT 3–3 FUK · FUK 1–3 MAT · FUK 1–0 MAT · MAT 1–2 FUK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 18 Sept

FUKUSHIMA UNITED

LWLDLW1–4 · 4–3 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

MATSUMOTO YAMAGA

DWLWLW0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	13	+11	29
2	Ehime FC	12	+13	26
3	Osaka	13	+10	23
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	+8	23
5	Nara Club	13	+2	23
6	FC Gifu	12	+12	22
7	Sagamihara	13	+7	22
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	+7	20
9	FC Ryukyu	13	+1	20
10	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
11	Kanazawa	12	0	14
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	−1	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
14	Tochigi SC	13	−4	14
15	Gainare Tottori	12	−10	14
16	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	13	−10	13
18	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	−10	8
20	Kochi United	12	−23	5