Fukushima United v Kitakyushu prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 07:30

Fukushima United 2–1 Kitakyushu FUKUSHIMA UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fukushima United win~~43%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.501

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.489

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fukushima United win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fukushima United was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–22–35
1′KICK-OFF Fukushima United v Kitakyushu
45′SECOND HALF Fukushima United 0–0 Kitakyushu
47′HALF-TIME Fukushima United 0–0 Kitakyushu
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Fukushima United win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Fukushima United win 35%)
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Fukushima United
53′🟨 YELLOW · 47' H. Higuchi · Fukushima United
54′We published Fukushima United at 43%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–7
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Fukushima United 1–0 Kitakyushu
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Fukushima United win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Fukushima United win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 40%)
55′Fukushima United score on 54′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–7
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Kitakyushu · On: R. Hirahara · Off: M. Nishimura
61′We published Fukushima United at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
61′We published Fukushima United at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
61′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 2–0 · 95–5–1
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Kitakyushu · On: K. Hara · Off: M. Yoshinaga
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Kitakyushu · On: Y. Sakashita · Off: H. Izawa
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Fukushima United 2–0 Kitakyushu
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Fukushima United win: 43% at kick-off, 95% now
62′Fukushima United find the net on 61′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Fukushima United 2–1 Kitakyushu
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Fukushima United win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
66′A goal for Kitakyushu on 65′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 77–19–4
71′We published Fukushima United at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Fukushima United win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Fukushima United · On: K. Okuda · Off: H. Higuchi
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Fukushima United · On: A. Higuchi · Off: J. Yoshida
78′We published Fukushima United at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kitakyushu · On: F. Yoshihara · Off: K. Fukumori
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Kitakyushu
83′We published Fukushima United at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Fukushima United · On: M. Uehara · Off: N. Sasaki
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Fukushima United · On: T. Nakamura · Off: K. Ashibe
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Fukushima United win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kitakyushu · On: S. Kawabe · Off: S. Yasumitsu
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Fukushima United · On: K. Tsuchiya · Off: T. Harigaya
94′Full time, 2–1. We called Fukushima United at 43% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Kitakyushu
FTFULL TIME Fukushima United 2–1 Kitakyushu
FTFukushima United 2–1 Kitakyushu · Fukushima United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fukushima United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fukushima United 43%, draw 22%, Kitakyushu 35%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Fukushima United v KitakyushuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Fukushima United win43%

Draw22%

Kitakyushu win35%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueToho

Line-ups

Fukushima United

Kitakyushu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fukushima United

Kitakyushu

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Kitakyushu	11	−4	13
18	Fukushima United	11	−6	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fukushima United

Formation not confirmed

22 K. Yoshimaru

37 N. Sasaki

17 T. Fujitani

5 H. Toma

28 N. Suzu

96 J. Yoshida

10 T. Harigaya

30 K. Kano

7 K. Ashibe

40 H. Higuchi

8 Y. Okada

Coach · Shuhei Terada

Substitutes

78 · Jung Sung-Ryong

23 · T. Anzai

66 · M. Uehara

29 · K. Tsuchiya

44 · K. Okuda

14 · T. Nakamura

13 · A. Higuchi

20 · S. Izumi

9 · K. Shimizu

Kitakyushu

Formation not confirmed

31 K. Otani

30 K. Fukumori

28 K. Yokokubo

3 R. Kamihashi

20 S. Yasumitsu

66 D. Takahashi

18 S. Hiramatsu

14 H. Izawa

8 M. Yoshinaga

52 M. Nishimura

11 S. Koh

Coach · Ryotaro Tanaka

Substitutes

41 · M. Sugimoto

4 · K. Hasegawa

5 · T. Narasaka

16 · S. Maruyama

27 · K. Hara

7 · R. Hirahara

19 · F. Yoshihara

51 · Y. Sakashita

9 · S. Kawabe

Our number · fukushima united winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

43% The market43%

Us43%

~~Market~~43%

We make Fukushima United a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fukushima United v Kitakyushu~~1.66 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~18 v 14

~~The market · Fukushima United win~~43% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fukushima United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fukushima United win	43%	43%	0
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Kitakyushu win	35%	32%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	61%	−1
Both teams to score	61%	64%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	38%	42%	−4
Fukushima United or draw	65%	68%	−3
Fukushima United clean sheet	23%	–	–
Kitakyushu clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.9 7.2 4.8 2.4 1 8.0 9.9 7.7 3.8 2 6.0 8.6 6.3 3.1 3 3.3 4.8 3.5 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fukushima United down, Kitakyushu across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,774 J3 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fukushima United at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kitakyushu away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Fukushima United, 1.48 for Kitakyushu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KIT 1–2 FUK · FUK 1–0 KIT · FUK 1–0 KIT · KIT 2–1 FUK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 12 Sept

FUKUSHIMA UNITED

LLWLDL1–2 · 1–4 · 4–3 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–1

KITAKYUSHU

LWDWLW2–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	11	+10	26
2	Ehime FC	11	+12	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	+9	23
4	Nara Club	11	+6	23
5	Sagamihara	11	+8	21
6	FC Gifu	11	+11	19
7	Osaka	11	+7	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	+4	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	11	+1	17
10	Kanazawa	11	+2	14
11	Biwako Shiga	11	−2	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	−2	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	−7	14
14	Kitakyushu	11	−4	13
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	11	−3	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	−5	10
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	−9	10
18	Fukushima United	11	−6	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	−11	5
20	Kochi United	11	−21	5