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Fukushima United v Biwako Shiga

Fukushima United

2–2Full time

Biwako Shiga

J3 League · SAT 10 OCT · Toho

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 10:38

Fukushima United 2–2 Biwako Shiga FUKUSHIMA UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fukushima United win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.933

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.839

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fukushima United win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Fukushima United 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–22–38
1′KICK-OFF Fukushima United v Biwako Shiga
3′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Biwako Shiga
21′🟨 YELLOW · 2' T. Hino · Biwako Shiga
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Fukushima United 0–1 Biwako Shiga
29′⚽ GOAL · 30' Fukushima United 0–1 Biwako Shiga
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Fukushima United 1–1 Biwako Shiga · R. Yamaguchi
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Fukushima United 1–1 Biwako Shiga
45′SECOND HALF Fukushima United 1–1 Biwako Shiga
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Biwako Shiga · On: S. Hojo · Off: R. Yamaguchi
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fukushima United · On: K. Okuda · Off: K. Kano
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Fukushima United 2–1 Biwako Shiga · Y. Okada
48′⚽ GOAL · 49' Fukushima United 2–1 Biwako Shiga
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Fukushima United · On: K. Shimizu · Off: K. Ashibe
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Biwako Shiga · On: F. Romero · Off: T. Hino
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Biwako Shiga · On: T. Kikushima · Off: I. Sakamoto
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Fukushima United 2–2 Biwako Shiga · A. Higuchi
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Fukushima United 2–2 Biwako Shiga
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Biwako Shiga · On: S. Hirai · Off: T. Nishiyama
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Biwako Shiga · On: K. Matsubara · Off: K. Miyake
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Fukushima United · On: J. Yoshida · Off: N. Sasaki
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Fukushima United · On: M. Uehara · Off: T. Harigaya
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Fukushima United · On: T. Nakamura · Off: Y. Okada
FTFULL TIME Fukushima United 2–2 Biwako Shiga
FTFukushima United 2–2 Biwako Shiga · Fukushima United win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Fukushima United win40%

Draw21%

Biwako Shiga win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 08:00

Venue · Toho

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Fukushima United

Formation not confirmed

22 K. Yoshimaru

37 N. Sasaki

17 T. Fujitani

3 K. Honda

29 K. Tsuchiya

13 A. Higuchi

10 T. Harigaya

28 N. Suzu

7 K. Ashibe

30 K. Kano

8 Y. Okada

Coach · Shuhei Terada

Substitutes

78 · Jung Sung-Ryong

23 · T. Anzai

5 · H. Toma

66 · M. Uehara

19 · J. Fujita

96 · J. Yoshida

44 · K. Okuda

14 · T. Nakamura

9 · K. Shimizu

Biwako Shiga

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Ito

14 T. Shiraishi

5 T. Nishiyama

37 A. Nabeta

13 R. Koizumi

11 K. Miyake

8 K. Nakamura

32 G. Umiguchi

30 R. Yamaguchi

29 T. Hino

9 I. Sakamoto

Coach · –

Substitutes

41 · Y. Motoyoshi

2 · S. Hirai

26 · S. Tsunoda

7 · E. Kubo

77 · S. Hojo

66 · K. Matsubara

24 · F. Romero

15 · T. Kikushima

18 · S. Akiyama

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Fukushima United

Formation not confirmed

22 K. Yoshimaru

37 N. Sasaki

17 T. Fujitani

3 K. Honda

29 K. Tsuchiya

13 A. Higuchi

10 T. Harigaya

28 N. Suzu

7 K. Ashibe

30 K. Kano

8 Y. Okada

Coach · Shuhei Terada

Substitutes

78 · Jung Sung-Ryong

23 · T. Anzai

5 · H. Toma

66 · M. Uehara

19 · J. Fujita

96 · J. Yoshida

44 · K. Okuda

14 · T. Nakamura

9 · K. Shimizu

Biwako Shiga

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Ito

14 T. Shiraishi

5 T. Nishiyama

37 A. Nabeta

13 R. Koizumi

11 K. Miyake

8 K. Nakamura

32 G. Umiguchi

30 R. Yamaguchi

29 T. Hino

9 I. Sakamoto

Coach · –

Substitutes

41 · Y. Motoyoshi

2 · S. Hirai

26 · S. Tsunoda

7 · E. Kubo

77 · S. Hojo

66 · K. Matsubara

24 · F. Romero

15 · T. Kikushima

18 · S. Akiyama

Our number · fukushima united winPublished 10 Oct 08:02

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Fukushima United a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fukushima united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fukushima United win	40%	38%	+3
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Biwako Shiga win	38%	37%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	68%	61%	+7
Both teams to score	67%	64%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	81%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	46%	41%	+6
Fukushima United or draw	62%	63%	−1
Fukushima United clean sheet	18%	–	–
Biwako Shiga clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.7 5.8 4.5 2.6 1 5.9 8.7 7.8 4.5 2 4.8 8.0 6.8 3.9 3 2.9 4.8 4.0 2.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fukushima United down, Biwako Shiga across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,756 J3 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.7% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Fukushima United at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Biwako Shiga away: 2.20 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Fukushima United, 1.73 for Biwako Shiga. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in J3 League

FUKUSHIMA UNITED

DWLLWL2–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 4–3 · 2–3

BIWAKO SHIGA

LWLWLD0–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	9	+9	23
2	Ehime FC	9	+12	20
3	Sagamihara	10	+6	18
4	Osaka	10	+9	17
5	Renofa Yamaguchi	9	+6	17
6	Nara Club	9	+3	17
7	Kanazawa	10	+3	14
8	Roasso Kumamoto	9	+3	14
9	FC Gifu	9	+9	13
10	Biwako Shiga	9	0	13
11	Gainare Tottori	9	−6	13
12	Parceiro Nagano	9	−2	11
13	FC Ryukyu	9	−2	11
14	Tochigi SC	9	−3	10
15	Kitakyushu	9	−4	10
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	9	−3	8
17	Fukushima United	9	−5	7
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	9	−10	6
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5
20	Kochi United	9	−17	5