FC Ryukyu v Tochigi SC prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:44

FC Ryukyu 1–0 Tochigi SC TOCHIGI SC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tochigi SC win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.659

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.672

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tochigi SC win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tochigi SC was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
1′KICK-OFF FC Ryukyu v Tochigi SC
35′SUBSTITUTION · 33' FC Ryukyu · On: H. Horiuchi · Off: H. Fujiharu
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Tochigi SC win 33%)
45′SECOND HALF FC Ryukyu 0–0 Tochigi SC
47′HALF-TIME FC Ryukyu 0–0 Tochigi SC
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Tochigi SC win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
54′We said Tochigi SC at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 25–47–28
55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 25–48–28
63′We said Tochigi SC at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
67′We said Tochigi SC at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–0 · 78–18–3
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Tochigi SC · On: J. Nakamura · Off: W. I. Suzuki
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' FC Ryukyu 1–0 Tochigi SC
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Tochigi SC win: 40% at kick-off, 3% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' FC Ryukyu win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Tochigi SC · On: T. Yamaguchi · Off: K. Uchida Corrected
68′FC Ryukyu find the net on 68′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–18–3
70′FC Ryukyu ahead on 67′ through T. Teruuchi. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–3
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Tochigi SC · On: Y. Matsushita · Off: T. Igarashi
79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Tochigi SC · On: T. Myogan · Off: T. Aoshima
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Ryukyu · On: H. Asakawa · Off: T. Teruuchi
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Ryukyu · On: R. Ikeda · Off: S. Iwamoto
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' FC Ryukyu
83′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Tochigi SC · On: T. Yamaguchi · Off: K. Nakano
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Tochigi SC · On: K. Yano · Off: K. Uchida
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Tochigi SC win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FC Ryukyu · On: K. Ihori · Off: K. Sota
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FC Ryukyu · On: Y. Koki · Off: T. Ishiura
95′Full time, 1–0. We called Tochigi SC at 40% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME FC Ryukyu 1–0 Tochigi SC
FTFC Ryukyu 1–0 Tochigi SC · Tochigi SC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tochigi SC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Ryukyu 34%, draw 26%, Tochigi SC 40%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on FC Ryukyu v Tochigi SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC Ryukyu win34%

Draw26%

Tochigi SC win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueOkinawa Athletic Park Stadium

Line-ups

FC Ryukyu

Tochigi SC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Ryukyu

Tochigi SC

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 11 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	FC Ryukyu	10	−3	11
15	Tochigi SC	10	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Ryukyu

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Sato

14 J. Suzuki

27 Y. Funabashi

4 H. Fujiharu

24 N. Kawaguchi

32 F. Takayanagi

13 S. Iwamoto

17 Y. Kato

23 K. Sota

11 T. Ishiura

19 T. Teruuchi

Coach · –

Substitutes

33 · R. Miyamoto

35 · K. Chiba

3 · H. Yoshida

16 · K. Ihori

8 · H. Horiuchi

46 · R. Ikeda

55 · Y. Koki

89 · D. Takagi

9 · H. Asakawa

Tochigi SC

Formation not confirmed

41 R. Tashiro

88 K. Uchida

37 Y. Kimura

3 R. Higashi

14 S. Suzuki

17 K. Sugimori

81 K. Nakano

11 T. Aoshima

7 R. Osako

10 T. Igarashi

20 W. I. Suzuki

Coach · Atsushi Yoneyama

Substitutes

1 · S. Kawata

5 · Y. Yanagi

26 · T. Tabata

13 · K. Osone

18 · Y. Matsushita

16 · T. Myogan

29 · K. Yano

77 · J. Nakamura

25 · T. Yamaguchi

Our number · tochigi sc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Tochigi SC a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Ryukyu v Tochigi SC~~1.16 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~14 v 15

~~The market · Tochigi SC win~~38% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tochigi SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Ryukyu win	34%	33%	+1
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Tochigi SC win	40%	38%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	51%	−7
Both teams to score	48%	56%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	69%	73%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	30%	−7
FC Ryukyu or draw	60%	62%	−2
FC Ryukyu clean sheet	28%	–	–
Tochigi SC clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.3 11.9 7.1 3.1 1 10.9 12.0 8.1 3.5 2 5.9 7.3 4.6 2.0 3 2.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Ryukyu down, Tochigi SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,764 J3 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Ryukyu at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tochigi SC away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for FC Ryukyu, 1.28 for Tochigi SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TOC 4–1 FCR · FCR 2–1 TOC · TOC 0–0 FCR · FCR 1–0 TOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept

FC RYUKYU

WWLDLL3–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

TOCHIGI SC

WDLLDL2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ehime FC	10	+14	23
2	Kagoshima United	10	+8	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	10	+7	20
4	Nara Club	10	+5	20
5	Sagamihara	10	+6	18
6	Osaka	10	+9	17
7	FC Gifu	10	+10	16
8	Kanazawa	10	+3	14
9	Roasso Kumamoto	10	+1	14
10	Biwako Shiga	10	0	14
11	Parceiro Nagano	10	0	14
12	Gainare Tottori	11	−7	14
13	Matsumoto Yamaga	10	−2	11
14	FC Ryukyu	10	−3	11
15	Tochigi SC	10	−4	10
16	Kitakyushu	10	−6	10
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	−9	10
18	Fukushima United	10	−5	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5
20	Kochi United	10	−19	5