FC Gifu v Fukushima United prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 08:31

FC Gifu 1–0 Fukushima United FC GIFU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Gifu win~~51%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.359

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.294

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Gifu win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF FC Gifu v Fukushima United
2′Much as we predicted: FC Gifu was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–20–29
38′We published FC Gifu at 51%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' FC Gifu 1–0 Fukushima United
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' FC Gifu win: 51% at kick-off, 73% now
40′A goal for FC Gifu on 39′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
45′SECOND HALF FC Gifu 1–0 Fukushima United
46′HALF-TIME FC Gifu 1–0 Fukushima United
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fukushima United · On: N. Sasaki · Off: T. Anzai
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fukushima United · On: K. Kano · Off: K. Honda
52′We published FC Gifu at 51%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Fukushima United · On: H. Higuchi · Off: K. Okuda
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Fukushima United · On: K. Shimizu · Off: K. Ashibe
69′We published FC Gifu at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Gifu · On: F. Kitajima · Off: J. Izumisawa
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Gifu · On: Y. Yashiki · Off: K. Yakabi
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' FC Gifu win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
77′We published FC Gifu at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FC Gifu · On: H. Take · Off: H. Asada
84′We published FC Gifu at 51%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–8–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' FC Gifu win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Gifu · On: K. Hagino · Off: S. Ogushi
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Gifu · On: Kim Yu-Geon · Off: R. Kita
89′We published FC Gifu at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' FC Gifu
93′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Fukushima United · On: T. Nakamura · Off: Y. Okada
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' FC Gifu
FTFULL TIME FC Gifu 1–0 Fukushima United
FTFC Gifu 1–0 Fukushima United · FC Gifu win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Gifu are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Gifu 51%, draw 20%, Fukushima United 29%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on FC Gifu v Fukushima UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC Gifu win51%

Draw20%

Fukushima United win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueGifu Memorial Center Nagaragawa Ball Field

Line-ups

FC Gifu

Fukushima United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Gifu

Fukushima United

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 10 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	FC Gifu	10	+10	16
18	Fukushima United	10	−5	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Gifu

Formation not confirmed

77 R. Haruna

7 T. Hakozaki

34 K. Yumine

27 K. Haneda

22 Mun In-Ju

10 R. Kita

9 S. Nakamura

26 S. Ogushi

98 K. Yakabi

39 J. Izumisawa

43 H. Asada

Coach · Kiyotaka Ishimaru

Substitutes

55 · S. Sato

66 · F. Kitajima

4 · K. Kai

90 · Kim Yu-Geon

3 · K. Hagino

14 · H. Suzuki

47 · T. Matsui

50 · Y. Yashiki

95 · H. Take

Fukushima United

Formation not confirmed

22 K. Yoshimaru

17 T. Fujitani

3 K. Honda

29 K. Tsuchiya

23 T. Anzai

10 T. Harigaya

13 A. Higuchi

28 N. Suzu

44 K. Okuda

7 K. Ashibe

8 Y. Okada

Coach · Shuhei Terada

Substitutes

78 · Jung Sung-Ryong

5 · H. Toma

66 · M. Uehara

37 · N. Sasaki

96 · J. Yoshida

30 · K. Kano

14 · T. Nakamura

40 · H. Higuchi

9 · K. Shimizu

Our number · fc gifu winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market56%

Us51%

~~Market~~56%

We make FC Gifu a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Gifu v Fukushima United~~2.17 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 8~~7 v 18

~~The market · FC Gifu win~~56% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Gifu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Gifu win	51%	56%	−5
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Fukushima United win	29%	21%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	71%	63%	+8
Both teams to score	69%	62%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	88%	83%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	51%	43%	+8
FC Gifu or draw	71%	79%	−8
FC Gifu clean sheet	21%	–	–
Fukushima United clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.1 4.4 3.0 1 5.8 7.7 6.3 3.3 2 5.6 8.5 6.6 3.5 3 4.0 6.1 4.7 2.5 4 2.2 3.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Gifu down, Fukushima United across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,764 J3 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Gifu at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Fukushima United away: 2.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for FC Gifu, 1.58 for Fukushima United. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FUK 1–2 FCG · FCG 2–1 FUK · FCG 0–2 FUK · FUK 4–3 FCG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept

FC GIFU

LLLWLW0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 4–3 · 0–2 · 1–0

FUKUSHIMA UNITED

WLLWLD3–1 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 4–3 · 2–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ehime FC	10	+14	23
2	Kagoshima United	10	+8	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	10	+7	20
4	Nara Club	10	+5	20
5	Sagamihara	10	+6	18
6	Osaka	10	+9	17
7	FC Gifu	10	+10	16
8	Kanazawa	10	+3	14
9	Roasso Kumamoto	10	+1	14
10	Biwako Shiga	10	0	14
11	Parceiro Nagano	10	0	14
12	Gainare Tottori	10	−7	13
13	Matsumoto Yamaga	10	−2	11
14	FC Ryukyu	10	−3	11
15	Tochigi SC	10	−4	10
16	Kitakyushu	10	−6	10
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	10	−9	9
18	Fukushima United	10	−5	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	−8	5
20	Kochi United	10	−19	5