Ehime FC v Renofa Yamaguchi prediction · J3 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30

Ehime FC 2–1 Renofa Yamaguchi EHIME FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ehime FC win~~46%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.435

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.486

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ehime FC win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ehime FC 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
1′KICK-OFF Ehime FC v Renofa Yamaguchi
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Ehime FC
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Renofa Yamaguchi
43′We said Ehime FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–7
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Ehime FC 1–0 Renofa Yamaguchi
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Ehime FC win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
44′A goal for Ehime FC on 43′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
45′We said Ehime FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Ehime FC 2–0 Renofa Yamaguchi
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ehime FC win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
45′SECOND HALF Ehime FC 2–0 Renofa Yamaguchi
46′Ehime FC score on 45′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
46′HALF-TIME Ehime FC 2–0 Renofa Yamaguchi
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: H. Naruoka · Off: Y. Wakasa
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: S. Yamamoto · Off: R. Yamamoto
50′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 2–0 · 94–5–1
54′We said Ehime FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Ehime FC win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: R. Gunji · Off: S. Watanabe
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: N. Nomura · Off: K. Nakashima
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Ehime FC
65′🟥 RED CARD · 65' Ehime FC
66′Ehime FC are down to ten from 65′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 97–3–0
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ehime FC · On: Y. Fujimoto · Off: M. Hayashi
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ehime FC · On: T. Shibata · Off: S. Tamura
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ehime FC · On: K. Miyamoto · Off: R. Kabayama
74′We said Ehime FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 2–1 · 84–14–2
74′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 84–14–2
74′Renofa Yamaguchi find the net on 74′. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Ehime FC 2–1 Renofa Yamaguchi
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Ehime FC win: 46% at kick-off, 84% now
75′We said Ehime FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Renofa Yamaguchi · On: H. Naruoka · Off: S. Yamamoto Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ehime FC · On: H. Fukushima · Off: R. Abe
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Ehime FC
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Ehime FC · On: A. Kozakai · Off: S. Hino
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Ehime FC win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Ehime FC 2–1 Renofa Yamaguchi
FTEhime FC 2–1 Renofa Yamaguchi · Ehime FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ehime FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ehime FC 46%, draw 23%, Renofa Yamaguchi 31%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Ehime FC v Renofa YamaguchiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Ehime FC win46%

Draw23%

Renofa Yamaguchi win31%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueNingineer Stadium

Line-ups

Ehime FC

Renofa Yamaguchi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ehime FC

Renofa Yamaguchi

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 18 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ehime FC	11	+12	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	+9	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ehime FC

Formation not confirmed

36 S. Tsuji

50 K. Sugiyama

37 R. Ishio

16 K. Hosoya

5 T. Kuroishi

99 R. Kabayama

8 S. Kamimura

38 S. Hino

49 R. Abe

44 M. Hayashi

17 S. Tamura

Coach · Takeshi Oki

Substitutes

45 · K. Makiguchi

3 · H. Fukushima

18 · T. Shibata

23 · K. Miyamoto

13 · Y. Yamashita

28 · A. Kozakai

22 · Y. Takemoto

9 · Y. Fujimoto

27 · K. Funahashi

Renofa Yamaguchi

Formation not confirmed

35 K. Uchiyama

2 R. Ozawa

5 K. Yoshioka

33 S. Kikuchi

17 K. Tanabe

6 Y. Wakasa

7 N. Misawa

77 R. Yamamoto

25 S. Fujimori

4 K. Nakashima

13 S. Watanabe

Coach · Michiharu Otagiri

Substitutes

41 · M. Iida

14 · R. Shimodo

18 · M. Kamekawa

43 · J. Suzuki

88 · N. Nomura

40 · H. Naruoka

32 · T. Ito

19 · S. Yamamoto

70 · R. Gunji

Our number · ehime fc winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

46% The market43%

Us46%

~~Market~~43%

We make Ehime FC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ehime FC v Renofa Yamaguchi~~1.62 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 23 v 23~~2 v 3

~~The market · Ehime FC win~~43% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ehime FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ehime FC win	46%	43%	+3
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Renofa Yamaguchi win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	55%	54%	+1
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	34%	−1
Ehime FC or draw	69%	70%	−1
Ehime FC clean sheet	29%	–	–
Renofa Yamaguchi clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.2 7.9 4.5 1 9.9 10.6 7.1 3.0 2 7.3 8.9 5.6 2.4 3 4.0 4.9 3.1 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ehime FC down, Renofa Yamaguchi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,774 J3 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ehime FC at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Renofa Yamaguchi away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Ehime FC, 1.26 for Renofa Yamaguchi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~EHI 2–0 REN · REN 1–1 EHI · EHI 1–1 REN · REN 1–1 EHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 12 Sept

EHIME FC

LWDWWL1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–4

RENOFA YAMAGUCHI

WWDWWW2–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	11	+10	26
2	Ehime FC	11	+12	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	+9	23
4	Nara Club	11	+6	23
5	Sagamihara	11	+8	21
6	FC Gifu	11	+11	19
7	Osaka	11	+7	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	+4	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
10	FC Ryukyu	12	−1	17
11	Kanazawa	11	+2	14
12	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	−7	14
14	Tochigi SC	12	−4	13
15	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	11	−3	11
17	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	−9	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	−11	5
20	Kochi United	11	−21	5