Ehime FC v Fukushima United prediction · J3 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ehime FCDrawFukushima United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 07:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ehime FC 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ehime FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ehime FC 61%, draw 17%, Fukushima United 22%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Ehime FC v Fukushima UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ehime FC win61%

Draw17%

Fukushima United win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 07:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueNingineer Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ehime FC

Fukushima United

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J3 League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ehime FC	12	+13	26
18	Fukushima United	12	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ehime fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

61% The market59%

Us61%

~~Market~~59%

We make Ehime FC a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ehime FC v Fukushima United~~2.52 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 18 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 26 v 11~~2 v 18

~~The market · Ehime FC win~~59% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ehime FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ehime FC win	61%	59%	+2
Draw	17%	22%	−5
Fukushima United win	22%	19%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	75%	63%	+12
Both teams to score	68%	60%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	89%	82%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	55%	42%	+13
Ehime FC or draw	78%	81%	−3
Ehime FC clean sheet	24%	–	–
Fukushima United clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 3.5 2.1 1 5.6 6.6 5.0 2.4 2 6.1 8.5 6.0 2.9 3 5.0 7.0 4.9 2.4 4 3.2 4.4 3.1 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Ehime FC down, Fukushima United across0–5 goals a side shown (94.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,784 J3 League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ehime FC at home: 3.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fukushima United away: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.52 goals for Ehime FC, 1.43 for Fukushima United. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FUK 4–1 EHI · EHI 0–1 FUK · FUK 0–3 EHI · EHI 0–0 FUK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 18 Sept

EHIME FC

WDWWLW2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 2–1

FUKUSHIMA UNITED

LWLDLW1–4 · 4–3 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	13	+11	29
2	Ehime FC	12	+13	26
3	Osaka	13	+10	23
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	+8	23
5	Nara Club	13	+2	23
6	FC Gifu	12	+12	22
7	Sagamihara	13	+7	22
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	+7	20
9	FC Ryukyu	13	+1	20
10	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
11	Kanazawa	12	0	14
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	−1	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
14	Tochigi SC	13	−4	14
15	Gainare Tottori	12	−10	14
16	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	13	−10	13
18	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	−10	8
20	Kochi United	12	−23	5