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Biwako Shiga v Sagamihara

Biwako Shiga
0–2Full time
Sagamihara

J3 League · SUN 18 OCT · Heiwado HATO Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 08:31
Biwako Shiga 0–2 Sagamihara BIWAKO SHIGA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Biwako Shiga win45%
The market said30%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.733
The market’s Brier score0.481

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Biwako Shiga win at 45%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Biwako Shiga was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Biwako Shiga v Sagamihara
  4. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Biwako Shiga
  5. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Biwako Shiga win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Biwako Shiga 0–0 Sagamihara
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Biwako Shiga 0–0 Sagamihara
  8. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Biwako Shiga win 35%)
  9. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Biwako Shiga
  10. 51′We said Biwako Shiga at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–42–25
  11. 55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–45–24
  12. 60′We said Biwako Shiga at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
  13. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Biwako Shiga · On: G. Umiguchi · Off: F. Romero
  14. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Biwako Shiga · On: T. Shiraishi · Off: S. Hirai
  15. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sagamihara · On: A. Tanahashi · Off: R. Nakayama
  16. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Biwako Shiga win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
  17. 68′We said Biwako Shiga at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
  18. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Biwako Shiga · On: K. Matsubara · Off: T. Hino
  19. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Biwako Shiga · On: T. Kikushima · Off: I. Sakamoto
  20. 75′We said Biwako Shiga at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–15
  21. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sagamihara · On: M. Handai · Off: K. Sasaki
  22. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sagamihara · On: Y. Tokunaga · Off: T. Shimakawa
  23. 77′A goal for Sagamihara on 77′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–15–83
  24. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sagamihara · On: S. Kato · Off: R. Yamauchi
  25. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Biwako Shiga 0–1 Sagamihara
  26. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Biwako Shiga win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
  27. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Sagamihara win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
  28. 78′Sagamihara score on 78′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–98
  29. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Biwako Shiga 0–2 Sagamihara
  30. 79′We said Biwako Shiga at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  31. 82′80′: M. Handai on the scoresheet for Sagamihara, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  32. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Biwako Shiga · On: S. Tsunoda · Off: T. Nishiyama
  33. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Biwako Shiga
  34. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Biwako Shiga
  35. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sagamihara · On: Y. Kawabata · Off: R. Sugimoto
  36. FTFULL TIME Biwako Shiga 0–2 Sagamihara
  37. FTBiwako Shiga 0–2 Sagamihara · Biwako Shiga win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Biwako Shiga are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Biwako Shiga 45%, draw 24%, Sagamihara 31%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Biwako Shiga v SagamiharaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Biwako Shiga win45%
Draw24%
Sagamihara win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueHeiwado HATO Stadium

Line-ups

Biwako Shiga

Sagamihara

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Biwako Shiga

Sagamihara

8Days since last match9

Last match: 10 Oct · J3 League

Last match: 9 Oct · J3 League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Sagamihara10+618
10Biwako Shiga10014

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Biwako Shiga

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Ito

2 S. Hirai

37 A. Nabeta

5 T. Nishiyama

13 R. Koizumi

11 K. Miyake

24 F. Romero

8 K. Nakamura

77 S. Hojo

29 T. Hino

9 I. Sakamoto

Coach · –

Substitutes

41 · Y. Motoyoshi

26 · S. Tsunoda

32 · G. Umiguchi

14 · T. Shiraishi

7 · E. Kubo

66 · K. Matsubara

15 · T. Kikushima

18 · S. Akiyama

30 · R. Yamaguchi

Sagamihara

Formation not confirmed

21 Kim Min-ho

19 S. Okita

5 R. Yamauchi

13 M. Tokida

2 K. Watahiki

4 T. Shimakawa

8 K. Kambe

15 T. Maeda

10 R. Nakayama

24 R. Sugimoto

9 K. Sasaki

Coach · Yuki Stalph

Substitutes

30 · K. Kimura

16 · S. Kato

6 · Y. Tokunaga

22 · Y. Okuyama

11 · Y. Muto

7 · A. Tanahashi

93 · T. Phochai

34 · M. Handai

20 · Y. Kawabata

Our number · biwako shiga winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
45% The market30%
Us45%
Market30%

We make Biwako Shiga a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Biwako Shiga v Sagamihara1.51 – 1.21
Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 14 v 1810 v 6
The market · Biwako Shiga win30% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 05:39
Our probability · Biwako Shiga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Biwako Shiga win45%30%+15
Draw24%27%−3
Sagamihara win31%43%−12
Over 2.5 goals51%56%−5
Both teams to score53%59%−6
Over 1.5 goals74%78%−4
Over 3.5 goals29%36%−7
Biwako Shiga or draw69%57%+12
Biwako Shiga clean sheet30%––
Sagamihara clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%
0123450 6.1 8.8 4.8 1 10.8 11.1 7.1 2.9 2 7.5 8.9 5.3 2.2 3 3.8 4.5 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Biwako Shiga down, Sagamihara across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept

BIWAKO SHIGA

WLWLDD3–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 2–2

SAGAMIHARA

DWLDWW1–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kagoshima United11+1026
2Ehime FC11+1223
3Nara Club11+623
4Renofa Yamaguchi10+720
5FC Gifu11+1119
6Sagamihara10+618
7Osaka11+717
8Kanazawa11+214
9Roasso Kumamoto10+114
10Biwako Shiga10014
11Parceiro Nagano10014
12FC Ryukyu11−214
13Gainare Tottori11−714
14Kitakyushu11−413
15Matsumoto Yamaga10−211
16Tochigi SC11−510
17Thespakusatsu Gunma11−910
18Fukushima United11−68
19Kamatamare Sanuki10−85
20Kochi United10−195

The competition's standings before kick-off.