

Biwako Shiga v Sagamihara
Biwako Shiga
SagamiharaJ3 League · SUN 18 OCT · Heiwado HATO Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Biwako Shiga win at 45%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Biwako Shiga was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
- 1′KICK-OFF Biwako Shiga v Sagamihara
- 34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Biwako Shiga
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Biwako Shiga win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Biwako Shiga 0–0 Sagamihara
- 46′SECOND HALF Biwako Shiga 0–0 Sagamihara
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Biwako Shiga win 35%)
- 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Biwako Shiga
- 51′We said Biwako Shiga at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–42–25
- 55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–45–24
- 60′We said Biwako Shiga at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Biwako Shiga · On: G. Umiguchi · Off: F. Romero
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Biwako Shiga · On: T. Shiraishi · Off: S. Hirai
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sagamihara · On: A. Tanahashi · Off: R. Nakayama
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Biwako Shiga win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
- 68′We said Biwako Shiga at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Biwako Shiga · On: K. Matsubara · Off: T. Hino
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Biwako Shiga · On: T. Kikushima · Off: I. Sakamoto
- 75′We said Biwako Shiga at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–15
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sagamihara · On: M. Handai · Off: K. Sasaki
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sagamihara · On: Y. Tokunaga · Off: T. Shimakawa
- 77′A goal for Sagamihara on 77′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–15–83
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sagamihara · On: S. Kato · Off: R. Yamauchi
- 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Biwako Shiga 0–1 Sagamihara
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Biwako Shiga win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
- 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Sagamihara win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
- 78′Sagamihara score on 78′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–98
- 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Biwako Shiga 0–2 Sagamihara
- 79′We said Biwako Shiga at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
- 82′80′: M. Handai on the scoresheet for Sagamihara, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Biwako Shiga · On: S. Tsunoda · Off: T. Nishiyama
- 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Biwako Shiga
- 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Biwako Shiga
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sagamihara · On: Y. Kawabata · Off: R. Sugimoto
- FTFULL TIME Biwako Shiga 0–2 Sagamihara
- FTBiwako Shiga 0–2 Sagamihara · Biwako Shiga win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Biwako Shiga are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Biwako Shiga 45%, draw 24%, Sagamihara 31%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Biwako Shiga win45%
Sagamihara win31%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 06:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueHeiwado HATO Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Biwako ShigaMIN
SagamiharaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Biwako Shiga
Sagamihara
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Biwako Shiga
Sagamihara
Last match: 10 Oct · J3 League
Last match: 9 Oct · J3 League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Biwako Shiga
Formation not confirmed
1 K. Ito
2 S. Hirai
37 A. Nabeta
5 T. Nishiyama
13 R. Koizumi
11 K. Miyake
24 F. Romero
8 K. Nakamura
77 S. Hojo
29 T. Hino
9 I. Sakamoto
Coach · –
Substitutes
41 · Y. Motoyoshi
26 · S. Tsunoda
32 · G. Umiguchi
14 · T. Shiraishi
7 · E. Kubo
66 · K. Matsubara
15 · T. Kikushima
18 · S. Akiyama
30 · R. Yamaguchi
Sagamihara
Formation not confirmed
21 Kim Min-ho
19 S. Okita
5 R. Yamauchi
13 M. Tokida
2 K. Watahiki
4 T. Shimakawa
8 K. Kambe
15 T. Maeda
10 R. Nakayama
24 R. Sugimoto
9 K. Sasaki
Coach · Yuki Stalph
Substitutes
30 · K. Kimura
16 · S. Kato
6 · Y. Tokunaga
22 · Y. Okuyama
11 · Y. Muto
7 · A. Tanahashi
93 · T. Phochai
34 · M. Handai
20 · Y. Kawabata
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Biwako Shiga
Formation not confirmed
1 K. Ito
2 S. Hirai
37 A. Nabeta
5 T. Nishiyama
13 R. Koizumi
11 K. Miyake
24 F. Romero
8 K. Nakamura
77 S. Hojo
29 T. Hino
9 I. Sakamoto
Coach · –
Substitutes
41 · Y. Motoyoshi
26 · S. Tsunoda
32 · G. Umiguchi
14 · T. Shiraishi
7 · E. Kubo
66 · K. Matsubara
15 · T. Kikushima
18 · S. Akiyama
30 · R. Yamaguchi
Sagamihara
Formation not confirmed
21 Kim Min-ho
19 S. Okita
5 R. Yamauchi
13 M. Tokida
2 K. Watahiki
4 T. Shimakawa
8 K. Kambe
15 T. Maeda
10 R. Nakayama
24 R. Sugimoto
9 K. Sasaki
Coach · Yuki Stalph
Substitutes
30 · K. Kimura
16 · S. Kato
6 · Y. Tokunaga
22 · Y. Okuyama
11 · Y. Muto
7 · A. Tanahashi
93 · T. Phochai
34 · M. Handai
20 · Y. Kawabata
We make Biwako Shiga a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biwako Shiga win | 45% | 30% | +15 |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | −3 |
| Sagamihara win | 31% | 43% | −12 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 59% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 78% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 36% | −7 |
| Biwako Shiga or draw | 69% | 57% | +12 |
| Biwako Shiga clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
| Sagamihara clean sheet | 23% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 5 Sept
BIWAKO SHIGA
SAGAMIHARA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 11 | +10 | 26 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 11 | +12 | 23 |
| 3 | Nara Club | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 5 | FC Gifu | 11 | +11 | 19 |
| 6 | Sagamihara | 10 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 | Osaka | 11 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 | Kanazawa | 11 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Roasso Kumamoto | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Biwako Shiga | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | FC Ryukyu | 11 | −2 | 14 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 11 | −7 | 14 |
| 14 | Kitakyushu | 11 | −4 | 13 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 10 | −2 | 11 |
| 16 | Tochigi SC | 11 | −5 | 10 |
| 17 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 11 | −9 | 10 |
| 18 | Fukushima United | 11 | −6 | 8 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | −8 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 10 | −19 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Kagoshima United
Ehime FC
Nara Club
Renofa Yamaguchi
FC Gifu
Osaka
Kanazawa
Roasso Kumamoto
Parceiro Nagano
FC Ryukyu
Gainare Tottori
Kitakyushu
Matsumoto Yamaga
Tochigi SC
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Fukushima United
Kamatamare Sanuki
Kochi United