Biwako Shiga v Kanazawa prediction · J3 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Biwako ShigaDrawKanazawa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Biwako Shiga 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Biwako Shiga just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Biwako Shiga 40%, draw 24%, Kanazawa 36%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Biwako Shiga v KanazawaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Biwako Shiga win40%

Draw24%

Kanazawa win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueHeiwado HATO Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Biwako Shiga

Kanazawa

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J3 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Kanazawa	12	0	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · biwako shiga winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

40% The market32%

Us40%

~~Market~~32%

We make Biwako Shiga a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Biwako Shiga v Kanazawa~~1.45 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 20 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 14~~13 v 11

~~The market · Biwako Shiga win~~32% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Biwako Shiga win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Biwako Shiga win	40%	32%	+8
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Kanazawa win	36%	40%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	53%	53%	0
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−2
Biwako Shiga or draw	64%	60%	+4
Biwako Shiga clean sheet	26%	–	–
Kanazawa clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.5 9.1 5.6 2.6 1 9.6 10.9 7.9 3.6 2 6.4 8.4 5.7 2.6 3 3.1 4.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Biwako Shiga down, Kanazawa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,784 J3 League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021.

Home and away form

Biwako Shiga at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kanazawa away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Biwako Shiga, 1.36 for Kanazawa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J3 League this season · since 20 Sept

BIWAKO SHIGA

WLDDLL3–0 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–1

KANAZAWA

LWWDLL1–2 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kagoshima United	13	+11	29
2	Ehime FC	12	+13	26
3	Osaka	13	+10	23
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	+8	23
5	Nara Club	13	+2	23
6	FC Gifu	12	+12	22
7	Sagamihara	13	+7	22
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	+7	20
9	FC Ryukyu	13	+1	20
10	Parceiro Nagano	12	0	17
11	Kanazawa	12	0	14
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	−1	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	−3	14
14	Tochigi SC	13	−4	14
15	Gainare Tottori	12	−10	14
16	Kitakyushu	12	−5	13
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	13	−10	13
18	Fukushima United	12	−5	11
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	−10	8
20	Kochi United	12	−23	5