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Yokohama FC v Oita Trinita

Yokohama FC

1–2Full time

Oita Trinita

J2 League · SAT 10 OCT · MNHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 08:32

Yokohama FC 1–2 Oita Trinita YOKOHAMA FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yokohama FC win~~56%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.024

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.025

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yokohama FC win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Yokohama FC was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–19
1′KICK-OFF Yokohama FC v Oita Trinita
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Yokohama FC
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Yokohama FC 0–1 Oita Trinita
18′⚽ GOAL · 19' Yokohama FC 0–1 Oita Trinita
21′19′ and it is 0–1: S. Utsumoto on the scoresheet for Oita Trinita. 0–1 · 23–28–49
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Yokohama FC win: 56% at kick-off, 23% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Oita Trinita win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Yokohama FC win 23%)
34′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Oita Trinita
45′SECOND HALF Yokohama FC 0–1 Oita Trinita
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yokohama FC · On: Lukian · Off: K. Chiba
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yokohama FC · On: K. Yamada · Off: H. Ogura
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Oita Trinita
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Yokohama FC 1–1 Oita Trinita · S. Utsumoto
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Oita Trinita · On: K. Sakakibara · Off: Y. Nishimura
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Oita Trinita · On: I. Tone · Off: Matheus Pereira
57′⚽ GOAL · 59' Yokohama FC 1–1 Oita Trinita
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Yokohama FC · On: A. Yokoyama · Off: L. Takae
75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Oita Trinita · On: M. Kimoto · Off: Patrick Verhon
76′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Oita Trinita
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Oita Trinita · On: D. Furukawa · Off: Matheus Leiria
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Oita Trinita · On: H. Kiyotake · Off: K. Arima
84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Yokohama FC
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' T. Shimamura · Yokohama FC
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Yokohama FC · On: R. Kubota · Off: T. Murata
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Yokohama FC 1–2 Oita Trinita · Lukian
88′⚽ GOAL · 89' Yokohama FC 1–2 Oita Trinita
FTFULL TIME Yokohama FC 1–2 Oita Trinita
FTYokohama FC 1–2 Oita Trinita · Yokohama FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Yokohama FC win56%

Draw25%

Oita Trinita win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 06:00

Venue · MNHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Yokohama FC

Formation not confirmed

21 A. Ichikawa

16 M. Ito

22 K. Iwatake

5 K. Hosoi

20 T. Murata

4 H. Ogura

77 L. Takae

48 K. Shimbo

18 T. Shimamura

10 Joao Paulo

30 K. Chiba

Coach · Daisuke Sudo

Substitutes

42 · R. Ishii

15 · K. Hayashi

7 · K. Yamada

26 · A. Yokoyama

35 · K. Uda

9 · Lukian

90 · Adailton

13 · R. Kubota

49 · N. Komazawa

Oita Trinita

Formation not confirmed

22 Mun Kyung-Gun

3 A. Miyakawa

31 Matheus Pereira

6 Y. Misao

16 T. Shige

7 Y. Nishimura

19 K. Hayashida

14 S. Utsumoto

10 Matheus Leiria

18 Patrick Verhon

9 K. Arima

Coach · Shuhei Yomoda

Substitutes

1 · Y. Tanaka

30 · I. Tone

27 · Y. Matsuo

44 · K. Moriyama

28 · H. Kiyotake

8 · K. Sakakibara

17 · M. Kimoto

34 · D. Furukawa

45 · D. Aizawa

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Yokohama FC

Formation not confirmed

21 A. Ichikawa

16 M. Ito

22 K. Iwatake

5 K. Hosoi

20 T. Murata

4 H. Ogura

77 L. Takae

48 K. Shimbo

18 T. Shimamura

10 Joao Paulo

30 K. Chiba

Coach · Daisuke Sudo

Substitutes

42 · R. Ishii

15 · K. Hayashi

7 · K. Yamada

26 · A. Yokoyama

35 · K. Uda

9 · Lukian

90 · Adailton

13 · R. Kubota

49 · N. Komazawa

Oita Trinita

Formation not confirmed

22 Mun Kyung-Gun

3 A. Miyakawa

31 Matheus Pereira

6 Y. Misao

16 T. Shige

7 Y. Nishimura

19 K. Hayashida

14 S. Utsumoto

10 Matheus Leiria

18 Patrick Verhon

9 K. Arima

Coach · Shuhei Yomoda

Substitutes

1 · Y. Tanaka

30 · I. Tone

27 · Y. Matsuo

44 · K. Moriyama

28 · H. Kiyotake

8 · K. Sakakibara

17 · M. Kimoto

34 · D. Furukawa

45 · D. Aizawa

Our number · yokohama fc winPublished 10 Oct 06:01

56% The market55%

Us56%

~~Market~~55%

We make Yokohama FC a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yokohama FC win	56%	55%	0
Draw	25%	26%	0
Oita Trinita win	19%	19%	0
Over 2.5 goals	43%	48%	−5
Both teams to score	43%	49%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−6
Yokohama FC or draw	81%	81%	0
Yokohama FC clean sheet	45%	–	–
Oita Trinita clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 9.4 7.5 3.0 1 14.6 11.5 4.7 2 11.4 9.0 3.7 3 6.0 4.8 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yokohama FC down, Oita Trinita across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,248 J2 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yokohama FC at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Oita Trinita away: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Yokohama FC, 0.81 for Oita Trinita. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~YOK 1–1 OIT · OIT 0–0 YOK · YOK 2–3 OIT · OIT 1–2 YOK

Form · last six in J2 League

YOKOHAMA FC

DWLWDW2–2 · 5–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–0

OITA TRINITA

LDDDDW0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	9	+9	20
2	Albirex Niigata	9	0	19
3	Kataller Toyama	9	+9	17
4	Omiya Ardija	9	+9	17
5	Yokohama FC	9	+7	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	9	+2	16
7	Fujieda MYFC	9	+3	13
8	Blaublitz Akita	9	+2	13
9	Tokushima Vortis	9	−1	13
10	Montedio Yamagata	9	+3	12
11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	9	0	12
12	Oita Trinita	9	+2	11
13	Tochigi City	9	0	10
14	Jubilo Iwata	9	−2	10
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	9	−9	10
16	Iwaki	9	−5	9
17	Sagan Tosu	9	−4	8
18	Consadole Sapporo	9	−6	8
19	Imabari	9	−9	7
20	Ventforet Kofu	9	−10	7