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Ventforet Kofu v Tochigi City

Ventforet Kofu

2–1Full time

Tochigi City

J2 League · SAT 10 OCT · JIT Recycle Ink Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 10:38

Ventforet Kofu 2–1 Tochigi City TOCHIGI CITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tochigi City win~~39%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.622

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.723

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tochigi City win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tochigi City was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
1′KICK-OFF Ventforet Kofu v Tochigi City
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Ventforet Kofu 0–1 Tochigi City
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Ventforet Kofu 1–1 Tochigi City
22′Y. Naito scores for Ventforet Kofu on 18′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–30–36
22′⚽ GOAL · 14' Ventforet Kofu 1–1 Tochigi City · A. Yoshida (assist K. Nishiya)
22′⚽ GOAL · 18' Ventforet Kofu 1–1 Tochigi City · Y. Naito (assist H. Endo)
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Ventforet Kofu 2–1 Tochigi City
45′HALF-TIME Ventforet Kofu 2–1 Tochigi City
46′SECOND HALF Ventforet Kofu 2–1 Tochigi City
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Tochigi City · On: T. Nguen · Off: Y. Masukake
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Tochigi City
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ventforet Kofu · On: T. Wada · Off: H. Sueki
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ventforet Kofu · On: K. Sato · Off: Y. Hiratsuka
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Tochigi City · On: M. Hiraoka · Off: Y. Koike
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Tochigi City · On: M. Kato · Off: Pedro Augusto
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ventforet Kofu · On: K. Oshima · Off: M. Staccioli
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Tochigi City · On: K. Yamashita · Off: K. Nishiya
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Tochigi City · On: Y. Okaniwa · Off: T. Mori
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ventforet Kofu · On: Mendes · Off: I. Kobayashi Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ventforet Kofu · On: K. Kumakura · Off: Y. Murakami Corrected
FTFULL TIME Ventforet Kofu 2–1 Tochigi City
FTVentforet Kofu 2–1 Tochigi City · Tochigi City win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ventforet Kofu win36%

Draw25%

Tochigi City win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 08:00

Venue · JIT Recycle Ink Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ventforet Kofu

Formation not confirmed

97 J. Higashi

22 Y. Koide

17 S. Fukumoto

20 H. Endo

13 Y. Murakami

27 S. Takei

16 H. Sueki

6 I. Kobayashi

25 Y. Hiratsuka

23 M. Staccioli

10 Y. Naito

Coach · Hiroki Shibuya

Substitutes

33 · K. Yamauchi

4 · H. Yamamoto

41 · T. Wada

95 · Mendes

26 · K. Sato

11 · K. Kumakura

29 · K. Oshima

96 · A. Kurokawa

19 · H. Mizuno

Tochigi City

Formation not confirmed

97 Kim Jin-Hyeon

5 R. Okui

2 M. Jonjic

3 H. Teruyama

15 Y. Sato

7 T. Mori

20 Pedro Augusto

24 K. Nishiya

32 Y. Koike

23 A. Yoshida

88 Y. Masukake

Coach · Naoki Imaya

Substitutes

1 · Y. Harada

17 · T. Chinen

6 · Kato Jo

10 · Y. Okaniwa

18 · M. Kato

8 · K. Yamashita

31 · A. Simmons

93 · T. Nguen

99 · M. Hiraoka

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ventforet Kofu

Formation not confirmed

97 J. Higashi

22 Y. Koide

17 S. Fukumoto

20 H. Endo

13 Y. Murakami

27 S. Takei

16 H. Sueki

6 I. Kobayashi

25 Y. Hiratsuka

23 M. Staccioli

10 Y. Naito

Coach · Hiroki Shibuya

Substitutes

33 · K. Yamauchi

4 · H. Yamamoto

41 · T. Wada

95 · Mendes

26 · K. Sato

11 · K. Kumakura

29 · K. Oshima

96 · A. Kurokawa

19 · H. Mizuno

Tochigi City

Formation not confirmed

97 Kim Jin-Hyeon

5 R. Okui

2 M. Jonjic

3 H. Teruyama

15 Y. Sato

7 T. Mori

20 Pedro Augusto

24 K. Nishiya

32 Y. Koike

23 A. Yoshida

88 Y. Masukake

Coach · Naoki Imaya

Substitutes

1 · Y. Harada

17 · T. Chinen

6 · Kato Jo

10 · Y. Okaniwa

18 · M. Kato

8 · K. Yamashita

31 · A. Simmons

93 · T. Nguen

99 · M. Hiraoka

Our number · tochigi city winPublished 10 Oct 08:02

39% The market42%

Us39%

~~Market~~42%

We make Tochigi City a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ventforet Kofu win	36%	31%	+5
Draw	25%	27%	−1
Tochigi City win	39%	42%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	54%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	33%	−3
Ventforet Kofu or draw	61%	58%	+4
Ventforet Kofu clean sheet	25%	–	–
Tochigi City clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.6 9.0 6.3 3.0 1 8.7 11.9 8.3 3.9 2 5.8 8.0 5.6 2.6 3 2.6 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ventforet Kofu down, Tochigi City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,248 J2 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ventforet Kofu at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tochigi City away: 1.40 scored, 1.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Ventforet Kofu, 1.41 for Tochigi City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in J2 League

VENTFORET KOFU

WWLLLL2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 1–2

TOCHIGI CITY

LWDLLL1–3 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	9	+9	20
2	Albirex Niigata	9	0	19
3	Kataller Toyama	9	+9	17
4	Omiya Ardija	9	+9	17
5	Yokohama FC	9	+7	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	9	+2	16
7	Fujieda MYFC	9	+3	13
8	Blaublitz Akita	9	+2	13
9	Tokushima Vortis	9	−1	13
10	Montedio Yamagata	9	+3	12
11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	9	0	12
12	Oita Trinita	9	+2	11
13	Tochigi City	9	0	10
14	Jubilo Iwata	9	−2	10
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	9	−9	10
16	Iwaki	9	−5	9
17	Sagan Tosu	9	−4	8
18	Consadole Sapporo	9	−6	8
19	Imabari	9	−9	7
20	Ventforet Kofu	9	−10	7