Vegalta Sendai v Tokushima Vortis prediction · J2 League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 08:31

Vegalta Sendai 0–0 Tokushima Vortis VEGALTA SENDAI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vegalta Sendai win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.754

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vegalta Sendai win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF Vegalta Sendai v Tokushima Vortis
2′Much as we predicted: Vegalta Sendai was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–30–30
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Tokushima Vortis
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Vegalta Sendai win 34%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Vegalta Sendai win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
45′SECOND HALF Vegalta Sendai 0–0 Tokushima Vortis
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vegalta Sendai · On: M. Nakajima · Off: T. Umeki
49′HALF-TIME Vegalta Sendai 0–0 Tokushima Vortis
50′We said Vegalta Sendai at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–23
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Tokushima Vortis
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Tokushima Vortis · On: Thonny Anderson · Off: D. Watari
61′We said Vegalta Sendai at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Tokushima Vortis
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Tokushima Vortis
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Vegalta Sendai win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vegalta Sendai · On: K. Miyazaki · Off: H. Iwabuchi
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vegalta Sendai · On: H. Kamada · Off: R. Asakura
70′We said Vegalta Sendai at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–66–15
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Tokushima Vortis · On: N. Kanuma · Off: T. Shigehiro
76′We said Vegalta Sendai at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Tokushima Vortis · On: M. Moyo · Off: Y. Takagi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Tokushima Vortis · On: H. Tanaka · Off: K. Yanagisawa
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Vegalta Sendai win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
82′We said Vegalta Sendai at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Vegalta Sendai · On: R. Sagara · Off: Y. Sugiyama
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Vegalta Sendai · On: R. Matsui · Off: M. Okuyama
89′We said Vegalta Sendai at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–3
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Vegalta Sendai win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
95′Full time, 0–0. We called Vegalta Sendai at 41% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Vegalta Sendai 0–0 Tokushima Vortis
FTVegalta Sendai 0–0 Tokushima Vortis · Vegalta Sendai win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vegalta Sendai are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vegalta Sendai 41%, draw 29%, Tokushima Vortis 30%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Vegalta Sendai v Tokushima VortisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vegalta Sendai win41%

Draw29%

Tokushima Vortis win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueYurtec Stadium Sendai

Line-ups

Vegalta Sendai

Tokushima Vortis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vegalta Sendai

Tokushima Vortis

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 10 Oct · J2 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vegalta Sendai

Formation not confirmed

33 A. Hayashi

22 R. Takada

5 M. Sugata

19 Mateus Moraes

3 M. Okuyama

37 Y. Sugiyama

8 H. Takeda

80 R. Asakura

42 H. Ishii

27 H. Iwabuchi

18 T. Umeki

Coach · Yoshiro Moriyama

Substitutes

1 · D. Hotta

14 · R. Sagara

6 · R. Matsui

17 · A. Kudo

10 · H. Kamada

47 · S. Araki

9 · K. Miyazaki

11 · K. Kobayashi

7 · M. Nakajima

Tokushima Vortis

Formation not confirmed

37 K. C. Kitamura

15 K. Yamakoshi

3 N. Yamada

22 K. Yanagisawa

19 J. Miyazaki

55 T. Shigehiro

10 T. Sugimoto

42 Y. Takagi

11 Lucas Barcelos

7 S. Kodama

16 D. Watari

Coach · Takafumi Yoshimoto

Substitutes

31 · T. Hasegawa

44 · T. Yamaguchi

2 · H. Tanaka

4 · Kaique

97 · M. Moyo

8 · K. Iwao

9 · Thonny Anderson

6 · N. Kanuma

27 · L. Izuchukwu

Our number · vegalta sendai winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Vegalta Sendai a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vegalta Sendai v Tokushima Vortis~~1.17 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 13~~1 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vegalta Sendai win	41%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Tokushima Vortis win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Vegalta Sendai or draw	70%	–	–
Vegalta Sendai clean sheet	39%	–	–
Tokushima Vortis clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 12.2 11.6 5.4 1 14.2 13.1 6.2 2 8.2 7.7 3.6 3 3.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vegalta Sendai down, Tokushima Vortis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,258 J2 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 1.78 goals a meeting; 1 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vegalta Sendai at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tokushima Vortis away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Vegalta Sendai, 0.94 for Tokushima Vortis. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.78

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~VEG 0–2 TOK · TOK 1–0 VEG · TOK 2–0 VEG · TOK 1–0 VEG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 5 Sept

VEGALTA SENDAI

WDWWWW3–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

TOKUSHIMA VORTIS

WLWWLL1–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	10	+10	23
2	Omiya Ardija	10	+11	20
3	Albirex Niigata	10	0	20
4	Kataller Toyama	10	+9	18
5	Yokohama FC	10	+6	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	10	+2	17
7	Oita Trinita	10	+3	14
8	Fujieda MYFC	10	+2	13
9	Blaublitz Akita	10	+1	13
10	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	10	0	13
11	Jubilo Iwata	10	−1	13
12	Tokushima Vortis	10	−2	13
13	Montedio Yamagata	10	+2	12
14	Iwaki	10	−4	12
15	Sagan Tosu	10	−3	11
16	Tochigi City	10	−1	10
17	Imabari	10	−8	10
18	Ventforet Kofu	10	−9	10
19	Vanraure Hachinohe	10	−11	10
20	Consadole Sapporo	10	−7	8