

Vegalta Sendai v Imabari
Vegalta Sendai
ImabariJ2 League · WED 21 OCT · Yurtec Stadium Sendai
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Vegalta Sendai win at 52%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Vegalta Sendai was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–24
- 1′KICK-OFF Vegalta Sendai v Imabari
- 2′A goal for Imabari on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 27–24–48
- 2′We said Vegalta Sendai at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–24–48
- 2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Vegalta Sendai 0–1 Imabari
- 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Vegalta Sendai win: 52% at kick-off, 27% now
- 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Imabari win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Vegalta Sendai win 52%)
- 13′We said Vegalta Sendai at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–51
- 17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Imabari
- 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Vegalta Sendai win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
- 29′We said Vegalta Sendai at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–54
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 19–26–55
- 43′We said Vegalta Sendai at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–59
- 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Vegalta Sendai
- 45′SECOND HALF Vegalta Sendai 0–1 Imabari
- 47′We said Vegalta Sendai at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–40–21
- 47′HALF-TIME Vegalta Sendai 0–1 Imabari
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Vegalta Sendai 1–1 Imabari
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Vegalta Sendai win: 52% at kick-off, 39% now
- 48′Vegalta Sendai score on 48′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 39–40–21
- 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vegalta Sendai · On: M. Okuyama · Off: R. Matsui
- 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vegalta Sendai · On: H. Takeda · Off: H. Kamada
- 51′We published Vegalta Sendai at 52%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
- 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Imabari win 61%)
- 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Vegalta Sendai 2–1 Imabari
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Vegalta Sendai win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
- 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Vegalta Sendai win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 42%)
- 52′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 80–16–4
- 52′Vegalta Sendai find the net on 52′. 2–1. 2–1 · 80–16–4
- 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Imabari
- 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Imabari · On: T. Kondo · Off: K. Kikuchi
- 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Imabari · On: T. Yamada · Off: A. Palocevic
- 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Imabari · On: J. Kato · Off: K. Mochii
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Vegalta Sendai win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Vegalta Sendai · On: R. Asakura · Off: H. Iwabuchi
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Imabari · On: Y. Maruyama · Off: T. Tsuchiya
- 68′We published Vegalta Sendai at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
- 73′We published Vegalta Sendai at 52%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Imabari · On: K. Furuyama · Off: Y. Komai
- 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Vegalta Sendai 3–1 Imabari
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Vegalta Sendai win: 52% at kick-off, 99% now
- 74′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 75′A goal for Vegalta Sendai on 74′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Vegalta Sendai · On: K. Miyazaki · Off: T. Umeki
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vegalta Sendai · On: S. Araki · Off: M. Nakajima
- 81′We published Vegalta Sendai at 52%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Imabari · On: K. Kubo · Off: K. Kushibiki
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Vegalta Sendai · On: R. Sagara · Off: Y. Sugiyama
- 95′Full time, 3–1. We called Vegalta Sendai at 52% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Vegalta Sendai 3–1 Imabari
- FTVegalta Sendai 3–1 Imabari · Vegalta Sendai win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Vegalta Sendai are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Vegalta Sendai 52%, draw 25%, Imabari 24%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Vegalta Sendai win52%
Imabari win24%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00
RoundMatchday 12
VenueYurtec Stadium Sendai
Match timeline
All events
Vegalta SendaiMIN
ImabariEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Vegalta Sendai
Imabari
Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League
Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Vegalta Sendai a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vegalta Sendai win | 52% | 65% | −13 |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | +4 |
| Imabari win | 24% | 14% | +10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 57% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 79% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 36% | −8 |
| Vegalta Sendai or draw | 76% | 86% | −10 |
| Vegalta Sendai clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| Imabari clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 Sept
VEGALTA SENDAI
IMABARI
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 | Omiya Ardija | 11 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 | Albirex Niigata | 11 | −4 | 20 |
| 4 | Kataller Toyama | 11 | +9 | 19 |
| 5 | Yokohama FC | 11 | +6 | 18 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 11 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 | Iwaki | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Fujieda MYFC | 11 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Jubilo Iwata | 11 | −1 | 14 |
| 12 | Sagan Tosu | 11 | −2 | 14 |
| 13 | Tokushima Vortis | 11 | −2 | 14 |
| 14 | Consadole Sapporo | 12 | −4 | 14 |
| 15 | Blaublitz Akita | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | Montedio Yamagata | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 17 | Tochigi City | 11 | −1 | 11 |
| 18 | Imabari | 11 | −8 | 11 |
| 19 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 11 | −11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 11 | −14 | 10 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Omiya Ardija
Albirex Niigata
Kataller Toyama
Yokohama FC
Shonan Bellmare
Oita Trinita
Iwaki
Fujieda MYFC
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Jubilo Iwata
Sagan Tosu
Tokushima Vortis
Consadole Sapporo
Blaublitz Akita
Montedio Yamagata
Tochigi City
Vanraure Hachinohe
Ventforet Kofu