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Vegalta Sendai v Imabari

Vegalta Sendai
3–1Full time
Imabari

J2 League · WED 21 OCT · Yurtec Stadium Sendai

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30
Vegalta Sendai 3–1 Imabari VEGALTA SENDAI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Vegalta Sendai win52%
The market said65%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.348
The market’s Brier score0.190

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vegalta Sendai win at 52%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Vegalta Sendai was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Vegalta Sendai v Imabari
  4. 2′A goal for Imabari on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 27–24–48
  5. 2′We said Vegalta Sendai at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–24–48
  6. 2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Vegalta Sendai 0–1 Imabari
  7. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Vegalta Sendai win: 52% at kick-off, 27% now
  8. 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Imabari win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Vegalta Sendai win 52%)
  9. 13′We said Vegalta Sendai at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–51
  10. 17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Imabari
  11. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Vegalta Sendai win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
  12. 29′We said Vegalta Sendai at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–54
  13. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 19–26–55
  14. 43′We said Vegalta Sendai at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–59
  15. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Vegalta Sendai
  16. 45′SECOND HALF Vegalta Sendai 0–1 Imabari
  17. 47′We said Vegalta Sendai at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–40–21
  18. 47′HALF-TIME Vegalta Sendai 0–1 Imabari
  19. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Vegalta Sendai 1–1 Imabari
  20. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Vegalta Sendai win: 52% at kick-off, 39% now
  21. 48′Vegalta Sendai score on 48′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 39–40–21
  22. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vegalta Sendai · On: M. Okuyama · Off: R. Matsui
  23. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vegalta Sendai · On: H. Takeda · Off: H. Kamada
  24. 51′We published Vegalta Sendai at 52%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
  25. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Imabari win 61%)
  26. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Vegalta Sendai 2–1 Imabari
  27. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Vegalta Sendai win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
  28. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Vegalta Sendai win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 42%)
  29. 52′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 80–16–4
  30. 52′Vegalta Sendai find the net on 52′. 2–1. 2–1 · 80–16–4
  31. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Imabari
  32. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Imabari · On: T. Kondo · Off: K. Kikuchi
  33. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Imabari · On: T. Yamada · Off: A. Palocevic
  34. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Imabari · On: J. Kato · Off: K. Mochii
  35. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Vegalta Sendai win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
  36. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Vegalta Sendai · On: R. Asakura · Off: H. Iwabuchi
  37. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Imabari · On: Y. Maruyama · Off: T. Tsuchiya
  38. 68′We published Vegalta Sendai at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  39. 73′We published Vegalta Sendai at 52%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  40. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Imabari · On: K. Furuyama · Off: Y. Komai
  41. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Vegalta Sendai 3–1 Imabari
  42. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Vegalta Sendai win: 52% at kick-off, 99% now
  43. 74′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  44. 75′A goal for Vegalta Sendai on 74′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  45. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Vegalta Sendai · On: K. Miyazaki · Off: T. Umeki
  46. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vegalta Sendai · On: S. Araki · Off: M. Nakajima
  47. 81′We published Vegalta Sendai at 52%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  48. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Imabari · On: K. Kubo · Off: K. Kushibiki
  49. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Vegalta Sendai · On: R. Sagara · Off: Y. Sugiyama
  50. 95′Full time, 3–1. We called Vegalta Sendai at 52% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  51. FTFULL TIME Vegalta Sendai 3–1 Imabari
  52. FTVegalta Sendai 3–1 Imabari · Vegalta Sendai win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vegalta Sendai are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vegalta Sendai 52%, draw 25%, Imabari 24%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Vegalta Sendai v ImabariBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Vegalta Sendai win52%
Draw25%
Imabari win24%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueYurtec Stadium Sendai

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vegalta Sendai

Imabari

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vegalta Sendai11+1024
18Imabari11−811

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vegalta sendai winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
52% The market65%
Us52%
Market65%

We make Vegalta Sendai a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Vegalta Sendai v Imabari1.64 – 1.02
Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 SeptW4 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 24 v 111 v 18
The market · Vegalta Sendai win65% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 10:38
Our probability · Vegalta Sendai win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Vegalta Sendai win52%65%−13
Draw25%21%+4
Imabari win24%14%+10
Over 2.5 goals49%57%−8
Both teams to score51%52%−1
Over 1.5 goals74%79%−5
Over 3.5 goals28%36%−8
Vegalta Sendai or draw76%86%−10
Vegalta Sendai clean sheet36%––
Imabari clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 7.2 7.2 3.7 1 11.5 11.6 5.9 2.0 2 9.4 9.4 4.8 3 5.2 5.2 2.6 4 2.2 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Vegalta Sendai down, Imabari across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsIMA 3–2 VEG · VEG 0–0 IMA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 Sept

VEGALTA SENDAI

DWWWWD1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

IMABARI

WLLWWD1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vegalta Sendai11+1024
2Omiya Ardija11+1020
3Albirex Niigata11−420
4Kataller Toyama11+919
5Yokohama FC11+618
6Shonan Bellmare11+218
7Oita Trinita11+717
8Iwaki11+115
9Fujieda MYFC11+214
10Tegevajaro Miyazaki11014
11Jubilo Iwata11−114
12Sagan Tosu11−214
13Tokushima Vortis11−214
14Consadole Sapporo12−414
15Blaublitz Akita11013
16Montedio Yamagata12013
17Tochigi City11−111
18Imabari11−811
19Vanraure Hachinohe11−1111
20Ventforet Kofu11−1410

The competition's standings before kick-off.