Vanraure Hachinohe v Montedio Yamagata prediction · J2 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Vanraure HachinoheDrawMontedio Yamagata

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Montedio Yamagata 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Montedio Yamagata are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vanraure Hachinohe 30%, draw 26%, Montedio Yamagata 44%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Vanraure Hachinohe v Montedio YamagataBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Vanraure Hachinohe win30%

Draw26%

Montedio Yamagata win44%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenuePrifoods Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vanraure Hachinohe

Montedio Yamagata

6Days since last match6

Last match: 25 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Vanraure Hachinohe	13	−12	14
17	Montedio Yamagata	13	−2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · montedio yamagata winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Montedio Yamagata a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vanraure Hachinohe v Montedio Yamagata~~1.13 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 26 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 13~~16 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vanraure Hachinohe win	30%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Montedio Yamagata win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Vanraure Hachinohe or draw	56%	–	–
Vanraure Hachinohe clean sheet	25%	–	–
Montedio Yamagata clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.1 11.1 7.9 3.8 1 8.8 12.4 8.7 4.2 2 5.0 6.9 4.9 2.3 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vanraure Hachinohe down, Montedio Yamagata across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,280 J2 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vanraure Hachinohe at home: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Montedio Yamagata away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Vanraure Hachinohe, 1.42 for Montedio Yamagata. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MON 1–0 VAN · VAN 0–2 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 26 Sept

VANRAURE HACHINOHE

WLLDWL2–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 0–2

MONTEDIO YAMAGATA

WLLDLL2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	13	+11	27
2	Albirex Niigata	13	−2	26
3	Kataller Toyama	13	+11	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	+9	22
5	Omiya Ardija	13	+7	21
6	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	13	+3	20
7	Oita Trinita	13	+7	19
8	Shonan Bellmare	12	+2	19
9	Sagan Tosu	13	−1	17
10	Tokushima Vortis	13	−2	17
11	Consadole Sapporo	13	−3	17
12	Iwaki	12	+1	16
13	Blaublitz Akita	13	0	16
14	Fujieda MYFC	13	+1	15
15	Jubilo Iwata	12	−1	15
16	Vanraure Hachinohe	13	−12	14
17	Montedio Yamagata	13	−2	13
18	Tochigi City	12	−1	12
19	Imabari	13	−11	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	13	−17	11