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Tokushima Vortis v Vanraure Hachinohe

Tokushima Vortis
0–1Full time
Vanraure Hachinohe

J2 League · WED 21 OCT · Pocarisweat Stadium

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30
Tokushima Vortis 0–1 Vanraure Hachinohe TOKUSHIMA VORTIS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Tokushima Vortis win50%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.928
The market’s Brier score0.892

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tokushima Vortis win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Tokushima Vortis was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Tokushima Vortis v Vanraure Hachinohe
  4. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Tokushima Vortis win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  5. 43′We said Tokushima Vortis at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–42–20
  6. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Tokushima Vortis win 40%)
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Tokushima Vortis 0–0 Vanraure Hachinohe
  8. 47′HALF-TIME Tokushima Vortis 0–0 Vanraure Hachinohe
  9. 52′We said Tokushima Vortis at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
  10. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Tokushima Vortis · On: N. Kanuma · Off: K. Iwao
  11. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Tokushima Vortis · On: D. Watari · Off: T. Shigehiro
  12. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Tokushima Vortis win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
  13. 61′We said Tokushima Vortis at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
  14. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Vanraure Hachinohe · On: K. Oka · Off: F. Unoki
  15. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Vanraure Hachinohe · On: R. Sawakami · Off: A. Sato
  16. 68′We said Tokushima Vortis at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–13
  17. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Vanraure Hachinohe · On: Y. Sato · Off: S. Otoizumi Corrected
  18. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Tokushima Vortis win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  19. 74′We said Tokushima Vortis at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
  20. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Vanraure Hachinohe · On: Y. Inami · Off: Y. Igari
  21. 79′We said Tokushima Vortis at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
  22. 82′We said Tokushima Vortis at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–10–89
  23. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Tokushima Vortis 0–1 Vanraure Hachinohe
  24. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Tokushima Vortis win: 50% at kick-off, 1% now
  25. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Vanraure Hachinohe win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 83%)
  26. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Tokushima Vortis · On: M. Moyo · Off: Y. Takagi
  27. 84′Vanraure Hachinohe find the net on 83′. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–8–92
  28. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Tokushima Vortis win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
  29. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Vanraure Hachinohe · On: S. Suzuki · Off: S. Otoizumi
  30. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tokushima Vortis · On: T. Yamaguchi · Off: J. Miyazaki
  31. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tokushima Vortis · On: L. Izuchukwu · Off: S. Kodama
  32. FTFULL TIME Tokushima Vortis 0–1 Vanraure Hachinohe
  33. FTTokushima Vortis 0–1 Vanraure Hachinohe · Tokushima Vortis win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tokushima Vortis are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tokushima Vortis 50%, draw 28%, Vanraure Hachinohe 22%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Tokushima Vortis v Vanraure HachinoheBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Tokushima Vortis win50%
Draw28%
Vanraure Hachinohe win22%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenuePocarisweat Stadium

Line-ups

Tokushima Vortis

Vanraure Hachinohe

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tokushima Vortis

Vanraure Hachinohe

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Tokushima Vortis11−214
19Vanraure Hachinohe11−1111

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tokushima Vortis

Formation not confirmed

37 K. C. Kitamura

15 K. Yamakoshi

3 N. Yamada

2 H. Tanaka

19 J. Miyazaki

10 T. Sugimoto

8 K. Iwao

42 Y. Takagi

55 T. Shigehiro

7 S. Kodama

11 Lucas Barcelos

Coach · Takafumi Yoshimoto

Substitutes

31 · T. Hasegawa

44 · T. Yamaguchi

4 · Kaique

97 · M. Moyo

23 · Y. Takada

69 · M. Fukuta

6 · N. Kanuma

27 · L. Izuchukwu

16 · D. Watari

Vanraure Hachinohe

Formation not confirmed

25 Y. Taniguchi

2 W. Hiramatsu

15 K. Sasaki

3 Y. Sawada

6 F. Unoki

34 S. Takayoshi

33 Y. Igari

8 S. Otoizumi

7 A. Sato

80 K. Nagata

35 W. Owie

Coach · Keiji Kuraishi

Substitutes

13 · S. Onishi

4 · S. Suzuki

17 · Y. Sato

24 · R. Kurisawa

10 · R. Sawakami

30 · Y. Inami

99 · S. Nakano

88 · M. Shintani

29 · K. Oka

Our number · tokushima vortis winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
50% The market48%
Us50%
Market48%

We make Tokushima Vortis a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Tokushima Vortis v Vanraure Hachinohe1.38 – 0.82
Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 14 v 1113 v 19
The market · Tokushima Vortis win48% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 10:38
Our probability · Tokushima Vortis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Tokushima Vortis win50%48%+2
Draw28%28%0
Vanraure Hachinohe win22%24%−2
Over 2.5 goals38%46%−8
Both teams to score41%50%−9
Over 1.5 goals64%69%−5
Over 3.5 goals18%25%−7
Tokushima Vortis or draw78%76%+2
Tokushima Vortis clean sheet44%––
Vanraure Hachinohe clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.2%
0123450 11.4 9.1 3.8 1 15.2 12.4 5.1 2 10.5 8.5 3.5 3 4.9 3.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Tokushima Vortis down, Vanraure Hachinohe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 Sept

TOKUSHIMA VORTIS

LWWLLD1–4 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

VANRAURE HACHINOHE

LLWLLD0–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 3–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vegalta Sendai11+1024
2Omiya Ardija11+1020
3Albirex Niigata11−420
4Kataller Toyama11+919
5Yokohama FC11+618
6Shonan Bellmare11+218
7Oita Trinita11+717
8Iwaki11+115
9Fujieda MYFC11+214
10Tegevajaro Miyazaki11014
11Jubilo Iwata11−114
12Sagan Tosu11−214
13Tokushima Vortis11−214
14Consadole Sapporo12−414
15Blaublitz Akita11013
16Montedio Yamagata12013
17Tochigi City11−111
18Imabari11−811
19Vanraure Hachinohe11−1111
20Ventforet Kofu11−1410

The competition's standings before kick-off.