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Tokushima Vortis v Imabari

Tokushima Vortis

1–2Full time

Imabari

J2 League · SAT 10 OCT · Pocarisweat Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 08:32

Tokushima Vortis 1–2 Imabari TOKUSHIMA VORTIS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tokushima Vortis win~~47%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.871

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.812

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tokushima Vortis win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tokushima Vortis 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–24
1′KICK-OFF Tokushima Vortis v Imabari
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Tokushima Vortis
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Tokushima Vortis 0–1 Imabari
29′⚽ GOAL · 30' Tokushima Vortis 0–1 Imabari
45′SECOND HALF Tokushima Vortis 0–1 Imabari
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Imabari · On: R. Umeki · Off: K. Mochii
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Imabari · On: Wesley Tanque · Off: E. Junio
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Tokushima Vortis · On: Thonny Anderson · Off: T. Shigehiro
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Imabari · On: H. Umakoshi · Off: T. Yamada
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Tokushima Vortis 0–2 Imabari · E. Junio
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' Tokushima Vortis 0–2 Imabari
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Tokushima Vortis 1–2 Imabari · R. Umeki
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Tokushima Vortis 1–2 Imabari
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Tokushima Vortis · On: Kaique · Off: Y. Takagi
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Imabari
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Imabari · On: K. Kubo · Off: K. Mori
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Imabari · On: K. Kubo · Off: K. Mori
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Tokushima Vortis · On: N. Kanuma · Off: S. Kodama
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Tokushima Vortis · On: M. Moyo · Off: K. Yanagisawa
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Tokushima Vortis · On: D. Watari · Off: Y. Kajiya
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Tokushima Vortis
FTFULL TIME Tokushima Vortis 1–2 Imabari
FTTokushima Vortis 1–2 Imabari · Tokushima Vortis win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tokushima Vortis win47%

Draw28%

Imabari win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 06:00

Venue · Pocarisweat Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Tokushima Vortis

Formation not confirmed

37 K. C. Kitamura

15 K. Yamakoshi

3 N. Yamada

22 K. Yanagisawa

19 J. Miyazaki

55 T. Shigehiro

10 T. Sugimoto

42 Y. Takagi

11 Lucas Barcelos

7 S. Kodama

14 Y. Kajiya

Coach · Takafumi Yoshimoto

Substitutes

31 · T. Hasegawa

44 · T. Yamaguchi

2 · H. Tanaka

4 · Kaique

97 · M. Moyo

8 · K. Iwao

9 · Thonny Anderson

6 · N. Kanuma

16 · D. Watari

Imabari

Formation not confirmed

18 G. Ito

29 Y. Maruyama

35 K. Kushibiki

99 Gabriel Gomes

15 K. Kikuchi

7 T. Yamada

6 Y. Kajiura

8 K. Mori

17 K. Mochii

14 Y. Komai

10 E. Junio

Coach · Yoshikiyo Kuboyama

Substitutes

1 · K. Tachikawa

3 · T. Son

2 · R. Umeki

38 · H. Umakoshi

9 · T. Kondo

30 · H. Shibano

36 · K. Kubo

19 · K. Furuyama

11 · Wesley Tanque

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tokushima Vortis

Formation not confirmed

37 K. C. Kitamura

15 K. Yamakoshi

3 N. Yamada

22 K. Yanagisawa

19 J. Miyazaki

55 T. Shigehiro

10 T. Sugimoto

42 Y. Takagi

11 Lucas Barcelos

7 S. Kodama

14 Y. Kajiya

Coach · Takafumi Yoshimoto

Substitutes

31 · T. Hasegawa

44 · T. Yamaguchi

2 · H. Tanaka

4 · Kaique

97 · M. Moyo

8 · K. Iwao

9 · Thonny Anderson

6 · N. Kanuma

16 · D. Watari

Imabari

Formation not confirmed

18 G. Ito

29 Y. Maruyama

35 K. Kushibiki

99 Gabriel Gomes

15 K. Kikuchi

7 T. Yamada

6 Y. Kajiura

8 K. Mori

17 K. Mochii

14 Y. Komai

10 E. Junio

Coach · Yoshikiyo Kuboyama

Substitutes

1 · K. Tachikawa

3 · T. Son

2 · R. Umeki

38 · H. Umakoshi

9 · T. Kondo

30 · H. Shibano

36 · K. Kubo

19 · K. Furuyama

11 · Wesley Tanque

Our number · tokushima vortis winPublished 10 Oct 06:01

47% The market45%

Us47%

~~Market~~45%

We make Tokushima Vortis a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tokushima Vortis win	47%	45%	+3
Draw	28%	28%	0
Imabari win	25%	27%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	38%	48%	−10
Both teams to score	43%	53%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	65%	72%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	19%	28%	−9
Tokushima Vortis or draw	75%	73%	+2
Tokushima Vortis clean sheet	42%	–	–
Imabari clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 11.1 9.6 4.2 1 14.6 12.6 5.5 2 9.7 8.4 3.7 3 4.4 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tokushima Vortis down, Imabari across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,248 J2 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tokushima Vortis at home: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Imabari away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Tokushima Vortis, 0.88 for Imabari. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TOK 1–0 IMA · IMA 0–1 TOK

Form · last six in J2 League

TOKUSHIMA VORTIS

WWLWWL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2

IMABARI

LDWLLW0–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	9	+9	20
2	Albirex Niigata	9	0	19
3	Kataller Toyama	9	+9	17
4	Omiya Ardija	9	+9	17
5	Yokohama FC	9	+7	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	9	+2	16
7	Fujieda MYFC	9	+3	13
8	Blaublitz Akita	9	+2	13
9	Tokushima Vortis	9	−1	13
10	Montedio Yamagata	9	+3	12
11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	9	0	12
12	Oita Trinita	9	+2	11
13	Tochigi City	9	0	10
14	Jubilo Iwata	9	−2	10
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	9	−9	10
16	Iwaki	9	−5	9
17	Sagan Tosu	9	−4	8
18	Consadole Sapporo	9	−6	8
19	Imabari	9	−9	7
20	Ventforet Kofu	9	−10	7