Tochigi City v Yokohama FC prediction · J2 League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 08:31

Tochigi City 1–1 Yokohama FC YOKOHAMA FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Yokohama FC win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.887

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yokohama FC win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Tochigi City v Yokohama FC
2′Much as we predicted: Yokohama FC was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 29–24–46
4′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Yokohama FC
11′Yokohama FC find the net on 10′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–71
11′We published Yokohama FC at 47%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 12–18–71
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Tochigi City 0–1 Yokohama FC
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Yokohama FC win: 47% at kick-off, 71% now
12′Yokohama FC ahead on 11′ through L. Takae. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–18–71
17′A red card for Yokohama FC on 17′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 11–18–71
17′🟥 RED CARD · 17' Yokohama FC
26′SUBSTITUTION · 22' Yokohama FC · On: R. Iwasaki · Off: Joao Paulo
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 9–18–72
45′HALF-TIME Tochigi City 0–1 Yokohama FC
46′SECOND HALF Tochigi City 0–1 Yokohama FC
47′We published Yokohama FC at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 7–19–75
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Tochigi City
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Yokohama FC
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Yokohama FC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Yokohama FC
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Tochigi City · On: Y. Okaniwa · Off: Pedro Augusto
66′We published Yokohama FC at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Tochigi City · On: B. Vasquez · Off: Y. Koike
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Tochigi City · On: Y. Masukake · Off: R. Okui
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Yokohama FC · On: H. Ogura · Off: L. Takae
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Tochigi City
74′A goal for Tochigi City on 74′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 15–63–21
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Tochigi City 1–1 Yokohama FC
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Yokohama FC win: 47% at kick-off, 21% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Yokohama FC win 21%)
75′We published Yokohama FC at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
76′GOAL DISALLOWED · 76' Tochigi City
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Yokohama FC win: 47% at kick-off, 86% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Yokohama FC win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Yokohama FC win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
81′We published Yokohama FC at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tochigi City · On: K. Yamashita · Off: T. Mori
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tochigi City · On: M. Hiraoka · Off: A. Yoshida
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Tochigi City
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Yokohama FC · On: M. Ito · Off: T. Murata
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Yokohama FC · On: N. Komazawa · Off: Lukian
88′We published Yokohama FC at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Yokohama FC win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
97′A goal for Tochigi City on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 1–97–2
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Tochigi City 1–1 Yokohama FC
97′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+7' Yokohama FC win: 47% at kick-off, 2% now
97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Yokohama FC win 2%)
98′We said Yokohama FC at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 1–97–2
FTFULL TIME Tochigi City 1–1 Yokohama FC
FTTochigi City 1–1 Yokohama FC · Yokohama FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yokohama FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tochigi City 29%, draw 24%, Yokohama FC 47%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Tochigi City v Yokohama FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tochigi City win29%

Draw24%

Yokohama FC win47%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCity Football Station

Line-ups

Tochigi City

Yokohama FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tochigi City

Yokohama FC

7Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 14 Oct · J-League Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Yokohama FC	10	+6	17
16	Tochigi City	10	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tochigi City

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Harada

5 R. Okui

2 M. Jonjic

3 H. Teruyama

33 T. Inui

20 Pedro Augusto

7 T. Mori

24 K. Nishiya

23 A. Yoshida

32 Y. Koike

93 T. Nguen

Coach · Naoki Imaya

Substitutes

16 · J. Kodama

17 · T. Chinen

6 · Kato Jo

10 · Y. Okaniwa

18 · M. Kato

8 · K. Yamashita

88 · Y. Masukake

11 · B. Vasquez

99 · M. Hiraoka

Yokohama FC

Formation not confirmed

21 A. Ichikawa

22 K. Iwatake

19 H. Sugita

5 K. Hosoi

20 T. Murata

7 K. Yamada

77 L. Takae

48 K. Shimbo

18 T. Shimamura

10 Joao Paulo

9 Lukian

Coach · Daisuke Sudo

Substitutes

42 · R. Ishii

16 · M. Ito

15 · K. Hayashi

78 · R. Iwasaki

4 · H. Ogura

35 · K. Uda

90 · Adailton

13 · R. Kubota

49 · N. Komazawa

Our number · yokohama fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Yokohama FC a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tochigi City v Yokohama FC~~1.27 – 1.67

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 17~~16 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tochigi City win	29%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Yokohama FC win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Tochigi City or draw	53%	–	–
Tochigi City clean sheet	19%	–	–
Yokohama FC clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.5 9.0 7.4 4.1 1 6.9 11.0 9.1 5.1 2.2 2 4.3 7.0 5.7 3.2 3 3.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tochigi City down, Yokohama FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,258 J2 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tochigi City at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 4). Yokohama FC away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Tochigi City, 1.67 for Yokohama FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TOC 2–2 YOK · YOK 5–1 TOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 6 Sept

TOCHIGI CITY

WDLLLL4–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

YOKOHAMA FC

WLWDWL5–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	10	+10	23
2	Omiya Ardija	10	+11	20
3	Albirex Niigata	10	0	20
4	Kataller Toyama	10	+9	18
5	Yokohama FC	10	+6	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	10	+2	17
7	Oita Trinita	10	+3	14
8	Fujieda MYFC	10	+2	13
9	Blaublitz Akita	10	+1	13
10	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	10	0	13
11	Jubilo Iwata	10	−1	13
12	Tokushima Vortis	10	−2	13
13	Montedio Yamagata	10	+2	12
14	Iwaki	10	−4	12
15	Sagan Tosu	10	−3	11
16	Tochigi City	10	−1	10
17	Imabari	10	−8	10
18	Ventforet Kofu	10	−9	10
19	Vanraure Hachinohe	10	−11	10
20	Consadole Sapporo	10	−7	8