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Tochigi City v Fujieda MYFC

Tochigi City
2–2Full time
Fujieda MYFC

J2 League · WED 21 OCT · City Football Station

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30
Tochigi City 2–2 Fujieda MYFC TOCHIGI CITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Tochigi City win44%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.845
The market’s Brier score0.827

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 45 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tochigi City win at 44%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Tochigi City 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Tochigi City v Fujieda MYFC
  4. 5′PENALTY MISSED · 5' Tochigi City
  5. 27′A goal for Tochigi City on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
  6. 27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Tochigi City 1–0 Fujieda MYFC
  7. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Tochigi City win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
  8. 27′GOAL DISALLOWED · 27' Tochigi City
  9. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Tochigi City win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
  10. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Tochigi City
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Tochigi City 0–0 Fujieda MYFC
  12. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Tochigi City
  13. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fujieda MYFC · On: Y. Nakamura · Off: S. Matsuki
  14. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fujieda MYFC · On: R. Shimano · Off: S. Suzuki
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Tochigi City 0–0 Fujieda MYFC
  16. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Tochigi City win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
  17. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Tochigi City win 37%)
  18. 52′A goal for Fujieda MYFC on 52′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–24–67
  19. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Tochigi City 0–1 Fujieda MYFC
  20. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Tochigi City win: 44% at kick-off, 9% now
  21. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Fujieda MYFC win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 43%)
  22. 53′We said Tochigi City at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
  23. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Fujieda MYFC
  24. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tochigi City · On: A. Simmons · Off: R. Okui
  25. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tochigi City · On: A. Yoshida · Off: Y. Koike
  26. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tochigi City · On: Y. Masukake · Off: B. Vasquez
  27. 67′We said Tochigi City at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
  28. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Tochigi City win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
  29. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Fujieda MYFC · On: T. Kusumoto · Off: K. Matsuda
  30. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Fujieda MYFC · On: Y. Kondo · Off: S. Aoki
  31. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Fujieda MYFC
  32. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Tochigi City · On: M. Hiraoka · Off: T. Nguen
  33. 75′Tochigi City score on 75′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 19–67–14
  34. 75′We said Tochigi City at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
  35. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Fujieda MYFC
  36. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Tochigi City 1–1 Fujieda MYFC
  37. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Tochigi City win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
  38. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Fujieda MYFC win 80%)
  39. 76′Tochigi City score on 74′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 18–68–14
  40. 77′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 17–70–13
  41. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Fujieda MYFC · On: H. Manabe · Off: M. Kitahara
  42. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Fujieda MYFC
  43. 80′We said Tochigi City at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–11
  44. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Fujieda MYFC
  45. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Tochigi City win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
  46. 82′Tochigi City find the net on 82′. 2–1. 2–1 · 91–8–0
  47. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Y. Nakamura · Fujieda MYFC
  48. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Tochigi City 2–1 Fujieda MYFC
  49. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Tochigi City win: 44% at kick-off, 91% now
  50. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Tochigi City win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 80%)
  51. 83′We said Tochigi City at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
  52. 83′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 92–8–0
  53. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Tochigi City win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
  54. 87′We said Tochigi City at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  55. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 85' U. Uehata · Fujieda MYFC
  56. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Tochigi City · On: T. Mori · Off: Y. Okaniwa
  57. 92′A goal for Fujieda MYFC on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 3–94–3
  58. 92′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 3–94–3
  59. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Tochigi City 2–2 Fujieda MYFC
  60. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Tochigi City win: 44% at kick-off, 3% now
  61. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Tochigi City win 97%)
  62. FTFULL TIME Tochigi City 2–2 Fujieda MYFC
  63. FTTochigi City 2–2 Fujieda MYFC · Tochigi City win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tochigi City are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tochigi City 44%, draw 25%, Fujieda MYFC 30%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Tochigi City v Fujieda MYFCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Tochigi City win44%
Draw25%
Fujieda MYFC win30%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueCity Football Station

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tochigi City

Fujieda MYFC

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Fujieda MYFC11+214
17Tochigi City11−111

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tochigi city winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
44% The market44%
Us44%
Market44%

We make Tochigi City a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Tochigi City v Fujieda MYFC1.51 – 1.21
Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 SeptW0 D2 L4 · W0 D4 L2
Table places · points 11 v 1417 v 9
The market · Tochigi City win44% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 10:38
Our probability · Tochigi City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Tochigi City win44%44%0
Draw25%26%−1
Fujieda MYFC win30%30%0
Over 2.5 goals51%55%−4
Both teams to score54%58%−4
Over 1.5 goals75%77%−2
Over 3.5 goals29%33%−4
Tochigi City or draw70%70%0
Tochigi City clean sheet30%––
Fujieda MYFC clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%
0123450 6.9 8.0 4.8 1 10.0 11.9 7.1 2.9 2 7.5 8.9 5.3 2.2 3 3.8 4.5 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Tochigi City down, Fujieda MYFC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 Sept

TOCHIGI CITY

DLLLLD0–0 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

FUJIEDA MYFC

LDDDLD2–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vegalta Sendai11+1024
2Omiya Ardija11+1020
3Albirex Niigata11−420
4Kataller Toyama11+919
5Yokohama FC11+618
6Shonan Bellmare11+218
7Oita Trinita11+717
8Iwaki11+115
9Fujieda MYFC11+214
10Tegevajaro Miyazaki11014
11Jubilo Iwata11−114
12Sagan Tosu11−214
13Tokushima Vortis11−214
14Consadole Sapporo12−414
15Blaublitz Akita11013
16Montedio Yamagata12013
17Tochigi City11−111
18Imabari11−811
19Vanraure Hachinohe11−1111
20Ventforet Kofu11−1410

The competition's standings before kick-off.