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Tegevajaro Miyazaki v Blaublitz Akita

Tegevajaro Miyazaki
2–1Full time
Blaublitz Akita

J2 League · WED 21 OCT · Unilever Stadium Shintomi

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 2–1 Blaublitz Akita TEGEVAJARO MIYAZAKI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Tegevajaro Miyazaki win43%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.480
The market’s Brier score0.424

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 36 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tegevajaro Miyazaki win at 43%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Tegevajaro Miyazaki v Blaublitz Akita
  4. 4′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Tegevajaro Miyazaki
  5. 37′We said Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
  6. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1–0 Blaublitz Akita
  7. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Tegevajaro Miyazaki win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
  8. 38′GOAL DISALLOWED · 38' Tegevajaro Miyazaki
  9. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Tegevajaro Miyazaki win: 43% at kick-off, 36% now
  10. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Tegevajaro Miyazaki win 74%)
  11. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Blaublitz Akita
  12. 45′SECOND HALF Tegevajaro Miyazaki 0–0 Blaublitz Akita
  13. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Tegevajaro Miyazaki win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
  14. 47′HALF-TIME Tegevajaro Miyazaki 0–0 Blaublitz Akita
  15. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Blaublitz Akita · On: T. Iwai · Off: T. Hasegawa
  16. 51′We said Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–46–23
  17. 56′We said Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–21
  18. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Blaublitz Akita
  19. 64′We said Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–16–3
  20. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1–0 Blaublitz Akita
  21. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Tegevajaro Miyazaki win: 43% at kick-off, 82% now
  22. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Tegevajaro Miyazaki win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 57%)
  23. 65′Tegevajaro Miyazaki score on 65′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 82–16–2
  24. 67′64′: K. Matsumoto on the scoresheet for Tegevajaro Miyazaki, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–2
  25. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Tegevajaro Miyazaki win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
  26. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Blaublitz Akita · On: K. Sagawa · Off: S. Suzuki
  27. 71′We said Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Blaublitz Akita · On: K. Umeda · Off: K. Sagawa Corrected
  29. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Blaublitz Akita
  30. 79′We said Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  31. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Blaublitz Akita · On: R. Oishi · Off: M. Yoshioka
  32. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Tegevajaro Miyazaki win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  33. 85′We said Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–87–6
  34. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1–1 Blaublitz Akita
  35. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Tegevajaro Miyazaki win: 43% at kick-off, 7% now
  36. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Tegevajaro Miyazaki win 94%)
  37. 86′Blaublitz Akita find the net on 86′. 1–1. 1–1 · 7–88–5
  38. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Blaublitz Akita
  39. 87′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 6–89–5
  40. 89′Blaublitz Akita level it on 85′ through K. Umeda. 1–1. 1–1 · 5–91–4
  41. 90′We said Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  42. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Tegevajaro Miyazaki · On: Y. Iesaka · Off: E. Watanabe
  43. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Tegevajaro Miyazaki · On: R. Sato · Off: R. Inoue
  44. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Tegevajaro Miyazaki
  45. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Blaublitz Akita · On: K. Doi · Off: T. Mizutani
  46. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Tegevajaro Miyazaki win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  47. 93′We said Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  48. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Tegevajaro Miyazaki 2–1 Blaublitz Akita
  49. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Tegevajaro Miyazaki win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
  50. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Tegevajaro Miyazaki win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 96%)
  51. 94′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  52. 94′A goal for Tegevajaro Miyazaki on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  53. 97′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Tegevajaro Miyazaki · On: T. Abe · Off: K. Murakoshi
  54. FTFULL TIME Tegevajaro Miyazaki 2–1 Blaublitz Akita
  55. FTTegevajaro Miyazaki 2–1 Blaublitz Akita · Tegevajaro Miyazaki win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tegevajaro Miyazaki are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 43%, draw 28%, Blaublitz Akita 29%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Tegevajaro Miyazaki v Blaublitz AkitaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Tegevajaro Miyazaki win43%
Draw28%
Blaublitz Akita win29%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueUnilever Stadium Shintomi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Blaublitz Akita

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Tegevajaro Miyazaki11014
15Blaublitz Akita11013

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tegevajaro miyazaki winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
43% The market47%
Us43%
Market47%

We make Tegevajaro Miyazaki a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Tegevajaro Miyazaki v Blaublitz Akita1.33 – 1.03
Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 SeptW3 D3 L0 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 14 v 1310 v 15
The market · Tegevajaro Miyazaki win47% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 10:38
Our probability · Tegevajaro Miyazaki win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Tegevajaro Miyazaki win43%47%−4
Draw28%29%−1
Blaublitz Akita win29%24%+5
Over 2.5 goals42%41%+1
Both teams to score47%46%+1
Over 1.5 goals68%66%+2
Over 3.5 goals21%22%−1
Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw71%76%−5
Tegevajaro Miyazaki clean sheet36%––
Blaublitz Akita clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%
0123450 9.7 9.7 5.0 1 12.5 12.8 6.5 2.3 2 8.3 8.4 4.3 3 3.7 3.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Tegevajaro Miyazaki down, Blaublitz Akita across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 Sept

TEGEVAJARO MIYAZAKI

WWWDDD3–2 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

BLAUBLITZ AKITA

WDDWLL4–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vegalta Sendai11+1024
2Omiya Ardija11+1020
3Albirex Niigata11−420
4Kataller Toyama11+919
5Yokohama FC11+618
6Shonan Bellmare11+218
7Oita Trinita11+717
8Iwaki11+115
9Fujieda MYFC11+214
10Tegevajaro Miyazaki11014
11Jubilo Iwata11−114
12Sagan Tosu11−214
13Tokushima Vortis11−214
14Consadole Sapporo12−414
15Blaublitz Akita11013
16Montedio Yamagata12013
17Tochigi City11−111
18Imabari11−811
19Vanraure Hachinohe11−1111
20Ventforet Kofu11−1410

The competition's standings before kick-off.