Shonan Bellmare v Tochigi City prediction · J2 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Shonan BellmareDrawTochigi City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Shonan Bellmare 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shonan Bellmare are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shonan Bellmare 43%, draw 26%, Tochigi City 31%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Shonan Bellmare v Tochigi CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Shonan Bellmare win43%

Draw26%

Tochigi City win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueLemon Gas Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shonan Bellmare

Tochigi City

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Shonan Bellmare	12	+2	19
18	Tochigi City	12	−1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shonan bellmare winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market43%

Us43%

~~Market~~43%

We make Shonan Bellmare a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shonan Bellmare v Tochigi City~~1.43 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D5 L0 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 19 v 12~~6 v 18

~~The market · Shonan Bellmare win~~43% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shonan Bellmare win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shonan Bellmare win	43%	43%	0
Draw	26%	26%	0
Tochigi City win	31%	31%	0
Over 2.5 goals	48%	55%	−7
Both teams to score	52%	59%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	73%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	26%	35%	−9
Shonan Bellmare or draw	69%	69%	0
Shonan Bellmare clean sheet	32%	–	–
Tochigi City clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.8 8.7 5.1 2.0 1 10.6 12.3 7.1 2.8 2 7.6 8.7 5.0 3 3.7 4.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shonan Bellmare down, Tochigi City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,278 J2 League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shonan Bellmare at home: 1.00 scored, 1.20 conceded a game (last 5). Tochigi City away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Shonan Bellmare, 1.17 for Tochigi City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SHO 1–2 TOC · TOC 1–3 SHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept

SHONAN BELLMARE

DWDDDD1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

TOCHIGI CITY

LLLLDD1–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	12	+12	27
2	Albirex Niigata	12	−3	23
3	Kataller Toyama	12	+12	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	+9	22
5	Omiya Ardija	13	+7	21
6	Shonan Bellmare	12	+2	19
7	Oita Trinita	12	+7	18
8	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	12	+1	17
9	Tokushima Vortis	13	−2	17
10	Iwaki	12	+1	16
11	Fujieda MYFC	13	+1	15
12	Jubilo Iwata	12	−1	15
13	Sagan Tosu	12	−3	14
14	Consadole Sapporo	12	−4	14
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	12	−10	14
16	Montedio Yamagata	12	0	13
17	Blaublitz Akita	12	−1	13
18	Tochigi City	12	−1	12
19	Imabari	12	−10	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	12	−17	10