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Shonan Bellmare v Iwaki

Shonan Bellmare
1–1Full time
Iwaki

J2 League · WED 21 OCT · Lemon Gas Stadium

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30
Shonan Bellmare 1–1 Iwaki SHONAN BELLMARE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Shonan Bellmare win39%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.807
The market’s Brier score0.781

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Shonan Bellmare win at 39%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Shonan Bellmare was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Shonan Bellmare v Iwaki
  4. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Shonan Bellmare win 35%)
  5. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Iwaki
  6. 45′SECOND HALF Shonan Bellmare 0–0 Iwaki
  7. 47′HALF-TIME Shonan Bellmare 0–0 Iwaki
  8. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Shonan Bellmare win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  9. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Iwaki
  10. 56′We said Shonan Bellmare at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–48–25
  11. 56′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 27–48–25
  12. 61′We said Shonan Bellmare at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
  13. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Shonan Bellmare 0–1 Iwaki
  14. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Shonan Bellmare win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
  15. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Iwaki win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 52%)
  16. 62′Iwaki find the net on 62′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–20–75
  17. 63′We said Shonan Bellmare at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
  18. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Shonan Bellmare · On: K. Onose · Off: S. Kozuki
  19. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Shonan Bellmare · On: H. Yamada · Off: F. Gonzalez
  20. 79′We said Shonan Bellmare at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–75–12
  21. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Shonan Bellmare 1–1 Iwaki
  22. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Shonan Bellmare win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
  23. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Iwaki win 87%)
  24. 80′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 12–77–11
  25. 80′A goal for Shonan Bellmare on 80′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 12–77–11
  26. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Shonan Bellmare · On: G. Yamaguchi · Off: H. Okuno
  27. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Iwaki · On: R. Hisanaga · Off: K. Shota
  28. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Shonan Bellmare win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  29. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Iwaki
  30. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Iwaki · On: R. Nagaki · Off: Y. Takahashi
  31. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Iwaki · On: T. Kato · Off: D. Yamaguchi
  32. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Shonan Bellmare · On: K. Tachi · Off: W. Shimoguchi
  33. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Shonan Bellmare · On: S. Tamura · Off: S. Matsumura
  34. 95′Full time, 1–1. We called Shonan Bellmare at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  35. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Iwaki · On: A. Yamanaka · Off: R. Nishitani
  36. FTFULL TIME Shonan Bellmare 1–1 Iwaki
  37. FTShonan Bellmare 1–1 Iwaki · Shonan Bellmare win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shonan Bellmare are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shonan Bellmare 39%, draw 27%, Iwaki 34%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Shonan Bellmare v IwakiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Shonan Bellmare win39%
Draw27%
Iwaki win34%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueLemon Gas Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shonan Bellmare

Iwaki

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 18 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Shonan Bellmare11+218
8Iwaki11+115

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shonan bellmare winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
39% The market41%
Us39%
Market41%

We make Shonan Bellmare a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Shonan Bellmare v Iwaki1.32 – 1.22
Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 SeptW2 D4 L0 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 18 v 156 v 8
The market · Shonan Bellmare win41% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 10:38
Our probability · Shonan Bellmare win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Shonan Bellmare win39%41%−2
Draw27%28%−1
Iwaki win34%30%+4
Over 2.5 goals46%48%−2
Both teams to score51%53%−2
Over 1.5 goals72%72%0
Over 3.5 goals25%28%−3
Shonan Bellmare or draw66%70%−4
Shonan Bellmare clean sheet30%––
Iwaki clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 8.2 9.6 5.9 2.4 1 10.4 12.5 7.6 3.1 2 6.9 8.2 5.0 2.1 3 3.1 3.6 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Shonan Bellmare down, Iwaki across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsSHO 1–1 IWA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 12 Sept

SHONAN BELLMARE

WDWDDD1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

IWAKI

WWLLWW2–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vegalta Sendai11+1024
2Omiya Ardija11+1020
3Albirex Niigata11−420
4Kataller Toyama11+919
5Yokohama FC11+618
6Shonan Bellmare11+218
7Oita Trinita11+717
8Iwaki11+115
9Fujieda MYFC11+214
10Tegevajaro Miyazaki11014
11Jubilo Iwata11−114
12Sagan Tosu11−214
13Tokushima Vortis11−214
14Consadole Sapporo12−414
15Blaublitz Akita11013
16Montedio Yamagata12013
17Tochigi City11−111
18Imabari11−811
19Vanraure Hachinohe11−1111
20Ventforet Kofu11−1410

The competition's standings before kick-off.