Shonan Bellmare v Albirex Niigata prediction · J2 League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:33

Shonan Bellmare 1–1 Albirex Niigata ALBIREX NIIGATA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Albirex Niigata win~~38%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.808

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.762

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Albirex Niigata win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF Shonan Bellmare v Albirex Niigata
2′Little has changed for our model: Albirex Niigata 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
5′Little has changed for our model: Albirex Niigata 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Shonan Bellmare 1–0 Albirex Niigata
21′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Shonan Bellmare
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Albirex Niigata
24′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Albirex Niigata
25′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Albirex Niigata
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Albirex Niigata win 32%)
45′SECOND HALF Shonan Bellmare 0–0 Albirex Niigata
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shonan Bellmare · On: S. Takeda · Off: Y. Fukazawa
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Shonan Bellmare 0–1 Albirex Niigata
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Shonan Bellmare 0–1 Albirex Niigata
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Shonan Bellmare · On: S. Kozuki · Off: S. Tamura
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Albirex Niigata · On: Iury Castilho · Off: Y. Wakatsuki
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Albirex Niigata · On: M. Sato · Off: C. Konagaya
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Shonan Bellmare · On: H. Okuno · Off: H. Yamada Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Shonan Bellmare · On: H. Okuno · Off: T. Nishino
73′🟥 RED CARD · 73' Albirex Niigata
73′🟥 RED CARD · 74' Albirex Niigata
75′🟥 RED CARD · 74' Y. Onishi · Albirex Niigata
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Albirex Niigata · On: K. Kasai · Off: M. Moraes
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Albirex Niigata · On: T. Arai · Off: T. Osawa
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Shonan Bellmare · On: G. Yamaguchi · Off: Y. Suzuki
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Shonan Bellmare 1–1 Albirex Niigata · Y. Wakatsuki
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Shonan Bellmare · On: G. Yamaguchi · Off: Y. Suzuki
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Shonan Bellmare 1–1 Albirex Niigata
93′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Albirex Niigata · On: F. Hayakawa · Off: M. Sekiguchi
FTFULL TIME Shonan Bellmare 1–1 Albirex Niigata
FTShonan Bellmare 1–1 Albirex Niigata · Albirex Niigata win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Shonan Bellmare win35%

Draw27%

Albirex Niigata win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:00

VenueLemon Gas Stadium

Line-ups

Shonan Bellmare

Albirex Niigata

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Shonan Bellmare

Albirex Niigata

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Albirex Niigata	9	0	19
6	Shonan Bellmare	9	+2	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Shonan Bellmare

Formation not confirmed

31 K. Sanada

37 Y. Suzuki

5 H. Matsumoto

3 Y. Hakamata

2 S. Matsumura

17 S. Tamura

16 Arthur Feitoza

26 Y. Fukazawa

7 K. Onose

34 H. Yamada

19 T. Nishino

Coach · Tetsu Nagasawa

Substitutes

21 · T. Nagai

8 · K. Ono

13 · W. Shimoguchi

4 · K. Tachi

30 · G. Yamaguchi

25 · H. Okuno

6 · S. Takeda

9 · F. Gonzalez

38 · S. Kozuki

Albirex Niigata

Formation not confirmed

46 N. Baumann

30 M. Sekiguchi

2 J. Geria

5 M. Fitzgerald

3 T. Kato

8 E. Shirai

7 Y. Onishi

16 T. Osawa

55 M. Moraes

14 C. Konagaya

18 Y. Wakatsuki

Coach · Yuzo Funakoshi

Substitutes

71 · S. Uchiyama

15 · F. Hayakawa

38 · K. Mori

26 · M. Sato

22 · T. Arai

70 · R. Maeda

6 · K. Kasai

9 · Iury Castilho

32 · K. Kuwayama

Our number · albirex niigata winPublished 11 Oct 10:06

38% The market29%

Us38%

~~Market~~29%

We make Albirex Niigata a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shonan Bellmare win	35%	42%	−7
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Albirex Niigata win	38%	29%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%	0
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	69%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	24%	0
Shonan Bellmare or draw	62%	71%	−9
Shonan Bellmare clean sheet	29%	–	–
Albirex Niigata clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.6 10.8 6.8 3.0 1 10.3 12.4 7.9 3.4 2 6.2 7.5 4.7 2.0 3 2.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shonan Bellmare down, Albirex Niigata across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,254 J2 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Shonan Bellmare at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Albirex Niigata away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Shonan Bellmare, 1.28 for Albirex Niigata. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in J2 League

SHONAN BELLMARE

DLWDWD2–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

ALBIREX NIIGATA

WLWWDW3–2 · 0–5 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omiya Ardija	10	+11	20
2	Vegalta Sendai	9	+9	20
3	Albirex Niigata	9	0	19
4	Kataller Toyama	9	+9	17
5	Yokohama FC	10	+6	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	9	+2	16
7	Oita Trinita	10	+3	14
8	Fujieda MYFC	10	+2	13
9	Blaublitz Akita	9	+2	13
10	Jubilo Iwata	10	−1	13
11	Tokushima Vortis	10	−2	13
12	Montedio Yamagata	9	+3	12
13	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	9	0	12
14	Sagan Tosu	10	−3	11
15	Tochigi City	10	−1	10
16	Imabari	10	−8	10
17	Ventforet Kofu	10	−9	10
18	Vanraure Hachinohe	10	−11	10
19	Iwaki	9	−5	9
20	Consadole Sapporo	10	−7	8