Sagan Tosu v Vanraure Hachinohe prediction · J2 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sagan TosuDrawVanraure Hachinohe

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sagan Tosu 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sagan Tosu are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sagan Tosu 45%, draw 27%, Vanraure Hachinohe 27%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Sagan Tosu v Vanraure HachinoheBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sagan Tosu win45%

Draw27%

Vanraure Hachinohe win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueEkimae Real Estate Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sagan Tosu

Vanraure Hachinohe

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Sagan Tosu	12	−3	14
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	12	−10	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sagan tosu winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

45% The market57%

Us45%

~~Market~~57%

We make Sagan Tosu a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sagan Tosu v Vanraure Hachinohe~~1.39 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 14~~13 v 15

~~The market · Sagan Tosu win~~57% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sagan Tosu win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sagan Tosu win	45%	57%	−12
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Vanraure Hachinohe win	27%	18%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	43%	49%	−6
Both teams to score	47%	49%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−6
Sagan Tosu or draw	73%	82%	−9
Sagan Tosu clean sheet	37%	–	–
Vanraure Hachinohe clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.3 9.2 4.7 1 12.5 12.6 6.3 2.2 2 8.7 8.7 4.4 3 4.1 4.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sagan Tosu down, Vanraure Hachinohe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,280 J2 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022.

Home and away form

Sagan Tosu at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Vanraure Hachinohe away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Sagan Tosu, 1.01 for Vanraure Hachinohe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 18 Sept

SAGAN TOSU

LLLWWL1–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2

VANRAURE HACHINOHE

LWLLDW0–3 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	12	+12	27
2	Albirex Niigata	12	−3	23
3	Kataller Toyama	12	+12	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	+9	22
5	Omiya Ardija	13	+7	21
6	Shonan Bellmare	12	+2	19
7	Oita Trinita	12	+7	18
8	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	12	+1	17
9	Tokushima Vortis	13	−2	17
10	Iwaki	12	+1	16
11	Fujieda MYFC	13	+1	15
12	Jubilo Iwata	12	−1	15
13	Sagan Tosu	12	−3	14
14	Consadole Sapporo	12	−4	14
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	12	−10	14
16	Montedio Yamagata	12	0	13
17	Blaublitz Akita	12	−1	13
18	Tochigi City	12	−1	12
19	Imabari	12	−10	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	12	−17	10