Sagan Tosu v Omiya Ardija prediction · J2 League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 08:31

Sagan Tosu 2–1 Omiya Ardija OMIYA ARDIJA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Omiya Ardija win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.660

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Omiya Ardija win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Sagan Tosu v Omiya Ardija
2′Little has changed for our model: Omiya Ardija 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 34–27–39
19′A goal for Sagan Tosu on 19′. 0–0 · 32–30–37
19′We said Omiya Ardija at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 63–22–15
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Sagan Tosu 1–0 Omiya Ardija
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Omiya Ardija win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Sagan Tosu win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Omiya Ardija win 15%)
21′We said Omiya Ardija at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–22–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 65–23–13
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Omiya Ardija
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Omiya Ardija win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
44′We said Omiya Ardija at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
45′HALF-TIME Sagan Tosu 1–0 Omiya Ardija
46′SECOND HALF Sagan Tosu 1–0 Omiya Ardija
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Omiya Ardija · On: Y. Toyokawa · Off: M. Edward
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Sagan Tosu · On: K. Jojo · Off: K. Nishizawa
65′We said Omiya Ardija at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 77–19–4
66′Sagan Tosu find the net on 66′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Omiya Ardija · On: Kaua Diniz · Off: G. Kato Corrected
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Sagan Tosu 2–0 Omiya Ardija
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Omiya Ardija win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Omiya Ardija · On: K. Sugimoto · Off: Carlinhos Junior Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sagan Tosu · On: R. Shiohama · Off: R. Hyon
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sagan Tosu · On: H. Goto · Off: T. Takahashi
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Omiya Ardija · On: K. Nakayama · Off: Y. Ozaki
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Omiya Ardija · On: Y. Kobayashi · Off: K. Sekiguchi
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Omiya Ardija
84′A goal for Omiya Ardija on 84′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Sagan Tosu 2–1 Omiya Ardija
86′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 93–6–0
86′H. Kato scores for Omiya Ardija on 83′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 93–6–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sagan Tosu · On: Y. Imazu · Off: R. Morishita
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Sagan Tosu · On: S. Nagasawa · Off: M. Yoshida
FTFULL TIME Sagan Tosu 2–1 Omiya Ardija
FTSagan Tosu 2–1 Omiya Ardija · Omiya Ardija win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Omiya Ardija are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sagan Tosu 34%, draw 26%, Omiya Ardija 40%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Sagan Tosu v Omiya ArdijaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sagan Tosu win34%

Draw26%

Omiya Ardija win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEkimae Real Estate Stadium

Line-ups

Sagan Tosu

Omiya Ardija

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sagan Tosu

Omiya Ardija

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · J-League Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Omiya Ardija	10	+11	20
15	Sagan Tosu	10	−3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sagan Tosu

Formation not confirmed

12 S. Matsubara

44 K. Abe

37 R. Morishita

26 T. Ando

28 M. Yoshida

21 A. Toyoda

6 T. Sakurai

7 K. Sakamoto

18 R. Hyon

16 K. Nishizawa

9 T. Takahashi

Coach · Akio Kogiku

Substitutes

1 · R. Izumori

4 · Y. Imazu

5 · S. Nagasawa

24 · K. Yamauchi

41 · H. Matsuoka

11 · R. Shiohama

13 · K. Jojo

43 · K. Yoshino

42 · H. Goto

Omiya Ardija

Formation not confirmed

24 T. Glover

37 K. Sekiguchi

88 R. Nishio

19 Y. Ozaki

3 H. Kato

18 O. Yamamoto

16 G. Kato

47 M. Edward

11 Caprini

9 Carlinhos Junior

14 T. Izumi

Coach · Narcis Pelach

Substitutes

50 · M. Wakabayashi

22 · R. Motegi

13 · O. Iyoha

8 · Kaua Diniz

15 · K. Nakayama

77 · Y. Kobayashi

23 · K. Sugimoto

10 · Y. Toyokawa

49 · J. McGhee

Our number · omiya ardija winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Omiya Ardija a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sagan Tosu v Omiya Ardija~~1.22 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 20~~15 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sagan Tosu win	34%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Omiya Ardija win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Sagan Tosu or draw	60%	–	–
Sagan Tosu clean sheet	26%	–	–
Omiya Ardija clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.8 10.5 6.9 3.1 1 9.6 12.4 8.3 3.8 2 5.8 7.6 5.1 2.3 3 2.4 3.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sagan Tosu down, Omiya Ardija across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,258 J2 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sagan Tosu at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Omiya Ardija away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Sagan Tosu, 1.34 for Omiya Ardija. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~OMI 0–0 SAG · SAG 1–0 OMI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 5 Sept

SAGAN TOSU

WLLLLW2–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

OMIYA ARDIJA

DDDWDW0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	10	+10	23
2	Omiya Ardija	10	+11	20
3	Albirex Niigata	10	0	20
4	Kataller Toyama	10	+9	18
5	Yokohama FC	10	+6	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	10	+2	17
7	Oita Trinita	10	+3	14
8	Fujieda MYFC	10	+2	13
9	Blaublitz Akita	10	+1	13
10	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	10	0	13
11	Jubilo Iwata	10	−1	13
12	Tokushima Vortis	10	−2	13
13	Montedio Yamagata	10	+2	12
14	Iwaki	10	−4	12
15	Sagan Tosu	10	−3	11
16	Tochigi City	10	−1	10
17	Imabari	10	−8	10
18	Ventforet Kofu	10	−9	10
19	Vanraure Hachinohe	10	−11	10
20	Consadole Sapporo	10	−7	8