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Sagan Tosu v Fujieda MYFC

Sagan Tosu

1–0Full time

Fujieda MYFC

J2 League · SAT 10 OCT · Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 08:32

Sagan Tosu 1–0 Fujieda MYFC SAGAN TOSU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sagan Tosu win~~42%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.505

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.363

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sagan Tosu win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sagan Tosu 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
1′KICK-OFF Sagan Tosu v Fujieda MYFC
45′SECOND HALF Sagan Tosu 0–0 Fujieda MYFC
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sagan Tosu · On: K. Jojo · Off: R. Hyon
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Fujieda MYFC · On: W. Kanemoto · Off: H. Manabe
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sagan Tosu · On: H. Goto · Off: T. Takahashi
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sagan Tosu · On: H. Nakahara · Off: K. Nishizawa
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sagan Tosu · On: S. Nagasawa · Off: R. Morishita
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sagan Tosu · On: K. Yoshino · Off: M. Yoshida
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Fujieda MYFC · On: S. Nakagawa · Off: T. Okamoto
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Fujieda MYFC · On: K. Matsuda · Off: S. Suzuki
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Sagan Tosu 1–0 Fujieda MYFC
94′⚽ GOAL · 95' Sagan Tosu 1–0 Fujieda MYFC
FTFULL TIME Sagan Tosu 1–0 Fujieda MYFC
FTSagan Tosu 1–0 Fujieda MYFC · Sagan Tosu win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sagan Tosu win42%

Draw27%

Fujieda MYFC win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 06:00

Venue · Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sagan Tosu

Formation not confirmed

12 S. Matsubara

44 K. Abe

37 R. Morishita

26 T. Ando

28 M. Yoshida

21 A. Toyoda

6 T. Sakurai

7 K. Sakamoto

18 R. Hyon

16 K. Nishizawa

9 T. Takahashi

Coach · Akio Kogiku

Substitutes

1 · R. Izumori

4 · Y. Imazu

5 · S. Nagasawa

20 · H. Nakahara

41 · H. Matsuoka

19 · Park Ho-Min

13 · K. Jojo

43 · K. Yoshino

42 · H. Goto

Fujieda MYFC

Formation not confirmed

24 S. Yoshida

16 Y. Mori

5 T. Kusumoto

3 S. Suzuki

6 T. Okamoto

38 R. Shimano

66 Y. Nagao

19 Y. Kondo

17 R. Kawamoto

41 U. Uehata

11 H. Manabe

Coach · Tomoaki Makino

Substitutes

31 · D. Kurisu

4 · S. Nakagawa

2 · K. Matsuda

23 · R. Kajikawa

97 · S. Aoki

77 · M. Kitahara

26 · T. Kawamoto

8 · Y. Tsunoda

20 · W. Kanemoto

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sagan Tosu

Formation not confirmed

12 S. Matsubara

44 K. Abe

37 R. Morishita

26 T. Ando

28 M. Yoshida

21 A. Toyoda

6 T. Sakurai

7 K. Sakamoto

18 R. Hyon

16 K. Nishizawa

9 T. Takahashi

Coach · Akio Kogiku

Substitutes

1 · R. Izumori

4 · Y. Imazu

5 · S. Nagasawa

20 · H. Nakahara

41 · H. Matsuoka

19 · Park Ho-Min

13 · K. Jojo

43 · K. Yoshino

42 · H. Goto

Fujieda MYFC

Formation not confirmed

24 S. Yoshida

16 Y. Mori

5 T. Kusumoto

3 S. Suzuki

6 T. Okamoto

38 R. Shimano

66 Y. Nagao

19 Y. Kondo

17 R. Kawamoto

41 U. Uehata

11 H. Manabe

Coach · Tomoaki Makino

Substitutes

31 · D. Kurisu

4 · S. Nakagawa

2 · K. Matsuda

23 · R. Kajikawa

97 · S. Aoki

77 · M. Kitahara

26 · T. Kawamoto

8 · Y. Tsunoda

20 · W. Kanemoto

Our number · sagan tosu winPublished 10 Oct 06:01

42% The market51%

Us42%

~~Market~~51%

We make Sagan Tosu a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sagan Tosu win	42%	51%	−9
Draw	27%	27%	+1
Fujieda MYFC win	31%	23%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	27%	−4
Sagan Tosu or draw	69%	77%	−8
Sagan Tosu clean sheet	33%	–	–
Fujieda MYFC clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.9 9.7 5.3 1 11.7 12.7 7.0 2.6 2 7.8 8.4 4.6 3 3.5 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sagan Tosu down, Fujieda MYFC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,248 J2 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J2 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sagan Tosu at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Fujieda MYFC away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Sagan Tosu, 1.11 for Fujieda MYFC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FUJ 0–0 SAG · SAG 1–0 FUJ

Form · last six in J2 League

SAGAN TOSU

DWLLLL2–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–1

FUJIEDA MYFC

WDLDDD3–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	9	+9	20
2	Albirex Niigata	9	0	19
3	Kataller Toyama	9	+9	17
4	Omiya Ardija	9	+9	17
5	Yokohama FC	9	+7	17
6	Shonan Bellmare	9	+2	16
7	Fujieda MYFC	9	+3	13
8	Blaublitz Akita	9	+2	13
9	Tokushima Vortis	9	−1	13
10	Montedio Yamagata	9	+3	12
11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	9	0	12
12	Oita Trinita	9	+2	11
13	Tochigi City	9	0	10
14	Jubilo Iwata	9	−2	10
15	Vanraure Hachinohe	9	−9	10
16	Iwaki	9	−5	9
17	Sagan Tosu	9	−4	8
18	Consadole Sapporo	9	−6	8
19	Imabari	9	−9	7
20	Ventforet Kofu	9	−10	7