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Omiya Ardija v Yokohama FC

Omiya Ardija
2–2Full time
Yokohama FC

J2 League · SAT 24 OCT · NACK5 Stadium Omiya

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31
Omiya Ardija 2–2 Yokohama FC YOKOHAMA FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Yokohama FC win42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.856

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 40 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Yokohama FC win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Yokohama FC 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 33–25–42
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Omiya Ardija v Yokohama FC
  4. 8′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Omiya Ardija
  5. 13′We said Yokohama FC at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 59–22–19
  6. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Omiya Ardija 1–0 Yokohama FC
  7. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Yokohama FC win: 42% at kick-off, 19% now
  8. 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Omiya Ardija win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Yokohama FC win 41%)
  9. 14′Omiya Ardija find the net on 14′. 1–0. 1–0 · 59–22–19
  10. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Omiya Ardija 1–1 Yokohama FC
  11. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Yokohama FC win: 42% at kick-off, 41% now
  12. 14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Yokohama FC win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Omiya Ardija win 59%)
  13. 15′A goal for Yokohama FC on 15′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–27–41
  14. 29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Omiya Ardija
  15. 30′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Omiya Ardija · On: G. Kato · Off: Kaua Diniz
  16. 45′SECOND HALF Omiya Ardija 1–1 Yokohama FC
  17. 46′We said Yokohama FC at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 2–1 · 66–23–11
  18. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Omiya Ardija 2–1 Yokohama FC
  19. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Yokohama FC win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
  20. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Omiya Ardija win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Yokohama FC win 36%)
  21. 46′GOAL DISALLOWED · 46' Omiya Ardija
  22. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Yokohama FC win: 42% at kick-off, 34% now
  23. 47′We said Yokohama FC at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–2 · 7–20–72
  24. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Omiya Ardija win 66%)
  25. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Yokohama FC
  26. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Omiya Ardija 1–2 Yokohama FC
  27. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Yokohama FC win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
  28. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Yokohama FC win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 38%)
  29. 48′Yokohama FC score on 47′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 7–20–73
  30. 48′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 7–20–73
  31. 48′HALF-TIME Omiya Ardija 1–1 Yokohama FC
  32. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Omiya Ardija · On: O. Yamamoto · Off: Y. Toyokawa
  33. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yokohama FC · On: R. Kubota · Off: T. Murata
  34. 53′🟨 YELLOW Omiya Ardija
  35. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 16' N. Pelach · Omiya Ardija
  36. 55′We said Yokohama FC at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–20–75
  37. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Yokohama FC · On: R. Iwasaki · Off: Joao Paulo
  38. 67′We said Yokohama FC at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 2–2 · 21–55–25
  39. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Omiya Ardija 2–2 Yokohama FC
  40. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Yokohama FC win: 42% at kick-off, 25% now
  41. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Yokohama FC win 79%)
  42. 68′Omiya Ardija find the net on 68′. 2–2. 2–2 · 20–56–24
  43. 69′We said Yokohama FC at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 2–2 · 20–57–23
  44. 71′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 18–60–22
  45. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Yokohama FC win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
  46. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Yokohama FC · On: H. Ogura · Off: L. Takae
  47. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Yokohama FC · On: Adailton · Off: Lukian
  48. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Omiya Ardija · On: K. Sugimoto · Off: Carlinhos Junior
  49. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Omiya Ardija · On: Y. Kobayashi · Off: T. Izumi
  50. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Yokohama FC win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  51. 84′We said Yokohama FC at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 8–83–9
  52. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Yokohama FC · On: N. Komazawa · Off: T. Shimamura
  53. 91′We said Yokohama FC at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 3–92–4
  54. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Yokohama FC win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  55. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Omiya Ardija · On: H. Hidaka · Off: Caprini
  56. 95′2–2 at the end. Our 42% on Yokohama FC misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
  57. FTFULL TIME Omiya Ardija 2–2 Yokohama FC
  58. FTOmiya Ardija 2–2 Yokohama FC · Yokohama FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yokohama FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Omiya Ardija 33%, draw 25%, Yokohama FC 42%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Omiya Ardija v Yokohama FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Omiya Ardija win33%
Draw25%
Yokohama FC win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueNACK5 Stadium Omiya

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Omiya Ardija

Yokohama FC

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 21 Oct · J2 League

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Yokohama FC12+921
5Omiya Ardija12+720

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yokohama fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
42% The market–
Us42%

We make Yokohama FC a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Omiya Ardija v Yokohama FC1.33 – 1.55
Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 20 v 215 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 05:40
Our probability · Yokohama FC win

Published at 39%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Omiya Ardija win33%––
Draw25%––
Yokohama FC win42%––
Over 2.5 goals55%––
Both teams to score57%––
Over 1.5 goals78%––
Over 3.5 goals33%––
Omiya Ardija or draw58%––
Omiya Ardija clean sheet22%––
Yokohama FC clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 5.9 8.7 6.7 3.5 1 7.5 11.5 8.7 4.5 2 5.0 7.6 5.8 3.0 3 2.3 3.4 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Omiya Ardija down, Yokohama FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting4.33
Over 2.53 of 3
Both scored3 of 3
Last meetingsYOK 2–1 OMI · OMI 3–2 YOK · YOK 3–2 OMI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J2 League this season · since 19 Sept

OMIYA ARDIJA

DWDWLL1–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–3

YOKOHAMA FC

WDWLDW2–1 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vegalta Sendai12+1227
2Albirex Niigata12−323
3Kataller Toyama12+1222
4Yokohama FC12+921
5Omiya Ardija12+720
6Shonan Bellmare12+219
7Oita Trinita12+718
8Tegevajaro Miyazaki12+117
9Iwaki12+116
10Fujieda MYFC12+215
11Jubilo Iwata12−115
12Sagan Tosu12−314
13Tokushima Vortis12−314
14Consadole Sapporo12−414
15Vanraure Hachinohe12−1014
16Montedio Yamagata12013
17Blaublitz Akita12−113
18Tochigi City12−112
19Imabari12−1011
20Ventforet Kofu12−1710

The competition's standings before kick-off.